Fantasy owners face a difficult choice when considering how to compete in the stolen base category.
• Should they choose a lineup chock-full of players who occasionally swipe a base while producing solid numbers across the board?
• Or, should they push forth with one of the few top-notch speed merchants who contribute little to the power categories?
• How much do past injuries linger in their minds?
There are many roads to a fantasy championship. Some punt the category altogether, a draft topic we’ll also address during the season. In the interim, let’s salute the league’s top speed merchants.
1. Juan Pierre, OF, Chicago White Sox
Analysis: The White Sox went to the small-ball method last season (that’s been reversed for 2011), and Pierre certainly did his part. He established new career marks with 68 stolen bases and 86 attempts. I suspect that his numbers regress somewhat in 2011 despite Ozzie Guillen’s recent comments about his desire to keep the line moving. I don’t anticipate a precipitous drop-off.
Pierre has stolen at least 30 bases in 10 consecutive seasons while averaging 68.7 attempts per season. He’s ranked in the top five in this category in three of the past five seasons.
2010 Stolen Base Total: 68
2011 Stolen Base Projection: 64
2. Jose Reyes, SS, New York Mets
Analysis: Reyes appeared in 133 games during the 2010 season after being diagnosed with a thyroid condition. He stole 30 bases in 40 attempts, his fifth season with at least 30 thefts in the past six years (he appeared in only 36 games during the 2009 campaign).
That’s the main question for 2011. Can Reyes stay healthy? If so, then you’re looking at a potential league leader. Reyes stole at least 56 bases in his four full major league seasons (he averaged 81.5 attempts during those seasons). He finished first or second in the category in each of those four seasons.
2010 Stolen Base Total: 30
2011 Stolen Base Projection: 62
3. Michael Bourn, OF, Houston
Analysis: Bourn isn’t going to offer much in the other standard fantasy categories, but he’s a hero here, and now offers a passable batting average (.285 and .265 in the past two years, respectively). That said, there is a .229 season in his recent past, and his .331 career OBP isn’t going to overwhelm you.
You can be sure that when he does get on base that he’s going to be running in short order. Bourn has averaged 66 stolen base attempts in the past three years (with 54.5 successes per season). You’re risking a drag on your batting average with his selection, but he’ll keep running. Bourn has finished second in this category in back-to-back seasons.
2010 Stolen Base Total: 52
2011 Stolen Base Projection: 57
4. Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, Boston
Analysis: Ellsbury appeared in only 18 games during the 2010 season, sidelined because of broken ribs. He’s shown no sign of the injury in early spring and appears set to jumpstart this formidable Boston offense in 2011. Ellsbury stole a total of 120 bases during the 2008 and 2009 seasons (had 70 in 2009). He also batted .280 and .301 in those seasons and scored a total of 192 runs to offer fantasy owners a secondary contribution. Make no mistake about it. Ellsbury’s lone true fantasy value lays on the basepaths.
2010 Stolen Base Total: 7
2011 Stolen Base Projection: 53
5. Carl Crawford, OF, Boston
Analysis: In eight full seasons in Tampa Bay, Crawford averaged 50 stolen bases. That includes his injury-shortened 2008 season in which he stole 25 bases in 109 games. He attempted an average of 60.5 thefts during this period. I wonder whether he’ll be less active in Boston, but they didn’t open the checkbook for him to stand still.
2010 Stolen Base Total: 47
2011 Stolen Base Projection: 51
6. Rajai Davis, OF, Toronto
Analysis: Davis started to demonstrate solid gap power (hitting a total of 55 doubles) and boosted his batting average. But, at the end of the day, his fantasy value is determined solely by his legs. In his two full seasons in Oakland, Davis attempted 114 steals (with 91 successes). He attempted a total of 35 steals in 113 games during the 2008 season. His OBP (.330 career) is obviously problematic, but he’s flying when he does reach base.
2010 Stolen Base Total: 50
2011 Stolen Base Projection: 46
7. Brett Gardner, OF, New York Yankees
Analysis: Gardner grabbed our collective attention by attempting 31 steals (with 27 successes) in his first expanded playing time for the Yankees in 2009. He elevated his game as an everyday player in 2010, successfully stealing 47 bases in 56 attempts.
I’m most encouraged by Gardner’s plate discipline and comfort at the plate. He walked 79 times to boost his OBP to .383 (eighth in the American League). Joe Girardi will keep him moving at the back-end of the Yankee lineup.
2010 Stolen Base Total: 47
2011 Stolen Base Projection: 45
8. Angel Pagan, OF, New York Mets
Analysis: The Mets didn’t have many things to celebrate in an injury-ravaged 2010 season. They did, however, find their everyday center fielder in Pagan. Pagan stole 14 bases in 88 games during the 2009 season. He then swiped 37 bases in 46 attempts during his first full season while batting .290. Pagan becomes the speed threat that Carlos Beltran once was in the outfield.
2010 Stolen Base Total: 37
2011 Stolen Base Projection: 41
9t. B.J. Upton, OF, Tampa Bay
Analysis: Upton may never become the all-around player that fans, baseball card investors and fantasy owners anticipated upon his arrival in Tampa. However, he remains a solid, albeit unspectacular, power producer (home runs increased to 18 from 11) and has stolen at least 42 bases in three consecutive seasons. Upton has averaged 55.7 stolen base attempts during this period.
2010 Stolen Base Total: 42
2011 Stolen Base Projection: 39
9t. Chone Figgins, 2B, Seattle
Analysis: The Angels certainly missed Figgins’ activity on the basepaths last season, and fantasy owners wondered if he was homesick following his dismal introduction to Seattle (he batted .211 in the first two months of the season). Figgins rebounded nicely in the second half of the season and finished the year with 42 stolen bases in 57 attempts. He’s been among the most consistent basestealers in recent years, having swiped at least 41 bases in five of the past six seasons (had at least 34 steals in seven consecutive seasons).
2010 Stolen Base Total: 42
2011 Stolen Base Projection: 39
11. Ichiro Suzuki, OF, Seattle
Analysis: Suzuki couldn’t replicate his 2009 batting average brilliance (average declined to .315 from .352), but he did run his streak of .300 seasons to 10. He stayed active on the basepaths with 42 stolen bases, which was Suzuki’s ninth season with at least 31 steals (had 26 in 2009). During his career, Suzuki has averaged 38.3 stolen bases and 47.1 attempts.
2010 Stolen Base Total: 42
2011 Stolen Base Projection: 37
12t. Shane Victorino, OF, Philadlephia
Analysis: Victorino’s batting average took a hit in 2010, but he achieved new heights in home runs and RBI, and nearly matched his career high with 34 stolen bases. He’s stolen at least 34 bases in three of the past four seasons and owns a solid .279 career batting average (with a .342 OBP).
2010 Stolen Base Total: 34
2011 Stolen Base Projection: 36
12t. Elvis Andrus, SS, Texas
Analysis: Andrus doesn’t do much on the overall fantasy radar. He’s a singles hitter in a power-packed Texas lineup and steals bases. In two years as the everyday shortstop in Texas, Andrus has attempted 86 thefts (with 65 successes). He moderately improved his OBP in 2010 (by .013) and batted a mediocre .265. Remember, Andrus is only 22 years old. There’s still a lot of room for growth.
2010 Stolen Base Total: 32
2011 Stolen Base Projection: 36
14. Coco Crisp, OF, Oakland
Analysis: Crisp was arrested on suspicion of DUI early in spring training, so this certainly adds another wrinkle when considering his selection. Owners were already forced to consider his extended absences because of injuries.
In 2010, he appeared in 75 games for the A’s and stole 32 bases in 35 attempts. His efficiency rating is tremendous, but Crisp has appeared in 118 games or less in four of the past five seasons. His .332 career on-base percentage is hardly inspiring.
2010 Stolen Base Total: 32
2011 Stolen Base Projection: 34
15. Jimmy Rollins, SS, Philadelphia
Analysis: Rollins appeared in only 88 games last season, the first season in which he appeared in fewer than 137 games since becoming the everyday shortstop for the Phillies in 2001. During that nine-year run, Rollins stole 30 or more bases eight times (had four seasons with at least 41 steals). He owns a weak .328 career OBP, but Rollins averaged 706 plate appearances in his nine full seasons.
2010 Stolen Base Total: 17
2011 Stolen Base Projection: 31
