"Get 'em on. Get 'em over. Get 'em in."
It is a simple concept, but ask baseball fans about the players in their favorite team’s lineup that struggle with runners in scoring position. They’ll rattle off the statistics in a hurry.
Of course, there are also teams that appear to be choreographing a big dance number around the bases. In this entry to the Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, I’m highlighting the top run scorers. To the surprise of no one, the teams of the American League are well represented.
1. Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Boston
Analysis: The former American League MVP returns from the foot injury that limited him to 75 games last season, and Theo Epstein brought in two dominant hitters to move the line. He scored 118 and 115 runs in the 2008 and 2009 seasons, respectively, and the additions of Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez portend to a great number of runs scored in Fenway. Pedroia owns a career .305 batting average with a corresponding .369 OBP.
2010 Run Total: 53
2011 Run Projection: 122
2. Albert Pujols, 1B, St. Louis
Analysis: Pujols has led this category in the past two years. During his 10-year career, Pujols has averaged 118.6 runs per season. He’s never scored fewer than 99 runs in a season and owns a career .426 on-base percentage. Pujols hits ahead of perennial 100-RBI generator Matt Holliday once again.
2010 Run Total: 115
2011 Run Projection: 120
3. Derek Jeter, SS, New York Yankees
Analysis: Jeter batted a career-low .270 last season (with a corresponding career-low .340 OBP), but he still scored more runs that he had since 2006. He remains the leader of the veritable Yankee conga line, where he’s scored at least 87 runs in 15 consecutive seasons. I’m anticipating a moderate bounce-back of his batting average and another run among the leaders in this category again.
2010 Run Total: 111
2011 Run Projection: 119
4. Carl Crawford, OF, Boston
Analysis: Fantasy owners loved Crawford in Tampa Bay. They’re positively giddy at the prospect of him batting in Fenway Park. Crawford scored 89 or more runs in six of his final seven seasons in Tampa Bay, including a career-high 110 in 2010 (he had 69 in his injury-shortened 2008 season). He owns a career .296 batting average and should enjoy jerking balls into the right-field seats. Crawford doesn’t walk much, so you’ll just have been satisfied with the high-batting average, activity on the basepaths and the fact that he hits in front of Adrian Gonzalez.
2010 Run Total: 110
2011 Run Projection: 117
5. Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Colorado
Analysis: Gonzalez changed venues following the 2008 season and became an instant star in Colorado. He then put up frightening all-around totals in his dominant 2010 season. Gonzalez racked up 77 extra-base hits, stole 26 bases and recorded a robust .376 on-base percentage. I would like to see Gonzalez walk more, but who is going to argue with his .336 batting average? Even if he regresses somewhat because of the high strikeout-to-walk ratio, Gonzalez is still a monster.
2010 Run Total: 111
2011 Run Projection: 116
6. Ryan Braun, OF, Milwaukee
Analysis: The Brewers are primed and loaded to make a run in the NL Central this season. He’s in the heart of a strong lineup, and his tag-team partner, Prince Fielder, is ready to mash en route to a new contract. Braun owns a career .307 batting average (.364 OBP) and has scored at least 91 runs in each of his four major league seasons.
2010 Run Total: 101
2011 Run Projection: 113
7. Robinson Cano, 2B, New York Yankees
Analysis: Following a “down” 2008 season that had some wondering about his long-term prospects in New York, Cano has been hitting like a madman. He’s hit a composite .319 while producing back-to-back 200-hit seasons. Cano scored 103 runs in back-to-back campaigns and continues to set the table for Mark Teixeira, Alex Rodriguez and Nick Swisher.
2010 Run Total: 103
2011 Run Projection: 111
8t. Hanley Ramirez, SS, Florida
Analysis: Ramirez remains the 1A selection to Albert Pujols in fantasy drafts. He presents five-tool brilliance with a career .385 on-base percentage and .313 batting average. Ramirez has scored at least 92 runs in five consecutive seasons (had 119, 125 and 125 runs from 2006-08). The Marlins have a number of intriguing young players in the lineup to help Ramirez this season.
2010 Run Total: 92
2011 Run Projection: 110
8t. Joey Votto, 1B, Cincinnati
Analysis: Votto truly experienced a breakthrough campaign in his third major-league season. He established new career marks across the board. Votto improved his power stroke, stayed active on the basepaths and walked 91 times. He produced his second straight season with an OBP higher than .400 (.414 and .424 in the past two seasons).
The frightening thing is that Votto still has room for improvement. He batted a respectable .297 at home in 2010, but crushed opposing pitchers to the tune of a .349 road batting average.
2010 Run Total: 106
2011 Run Projection: 110
10. Chase Utley, 2B, Philadelphia
Analysis: I’m obviously concerned about Utley’s health as the spring training schedule heats up. He’s currently sidelined with patella tendinitis, although he has been able to take his regular swings in the batting cage.
For now, I’ll believe the Phillies’ stance that he’s being held out as a precautionary measure and that the pain will be manageable come the regular season. Utley scored at least 104 runs in four consecutive seasons prior to last year’s injury-shortened campaign (when he played 115 games). He remains a premiere power broker, active on the basepaths and owns a .380 career OBP. Oh, and he hits ahead of Ryan Howard, a batter who knows how to clear the bases.
2010 Run Total: 75
2011 Run Projection: 109
11. Rickie Weeks, 2B, Milwaukee
Analysis: I’ll admit to being moderately afraid of Weeks’ prospects this season. After all, Weeks hadn’t played in more than 129 games prior to last season. However, Weeks had scored 87 and 89 runs in the 2007 and 2008 seasons, respectively, despite missing extensive time. He owns a solid .355 OBP and hits ahead of one of the game’s most potent trios.
2010 Run Total: 112
2011 Run Projection: 107
12. Nick Markakis, OF, Baltimore
His output dipped for the second straight season. Still, he rapped out 45 doubles and walked 73 times, a marked improvement from his 2009 total. Markakis owns a career .368 on-base percentage (with a .298 batting average) and will bat in a much-improved lineup for 2011. The Orioles will be one of the more interesting lineups to watch in 2011 following the additions of Derrek Lee, J.J. Hardy and Mark Reynolds. There. I said it.
2010 Run Total: 79
2011 Run Projection: 105
13t. Drew Stubbs, OF, Cincinnati
Analysis: Stubbs will reportedly bat in the leadoff role to open 2011. Dusty Baker is counting on one of 2010’s breakout stars to continue the growth that occurred in the second half. He improved his batting average by 46 points after the break.
Stubbs strikes out a ton, which will obviously hold down his OBP (had a .329 in 2010). However, he’s got a solid power stroke, hits ahead of proven RBI generators and terrorizes opposing pitchers when on the basepaths. I’m buying in for his follow-up campaign.
2010 Run Total: 53
2011 Run Projection: 103
13t. Alex Rodriguez, 3B, New York Yankees
Analysis: Rodriguez still puts up solid, albeit unspectacular, power numbers for the Yankees, having hit 30 or more home runs in each of his seven seasons in the Bronx. The big question facing Rodriguez is how well his body holds up.
In the past three seasons, Rodriguez has missed a total of 87 games. He’s averaged 103.9 runs per 162 games played during this period. I don’t buy into any of the “best shape of a player’s life” rhetoric that we hear each spring. However, he’s two years removed from his hip injury and continues to bat in the heart of one of the game’s most potent lineups.
2010 Run Total: 74
2011 Run Projection: 103
15. Hunter Pence, OF, Houston
Analysis: Pence scored a career-high 93 runs in 2010 despite his own struggles in the first half of the season and lower production from the heart of the Houston lineup. I anticipate a more consistent effort from Pence this season, and I’m curious to watch Carlos Lee and slugger Chris Johnson at work.
The lone knock on Pence is his patience at the plate. He’s walked fewer than 60 times in each of the past three years despite averaging more than 640 plate appearances during this period.
2010 Run Total: 93
2011 Run Projection: 102
