My list of top winners doesn’t necessarily translate into dominance in the other categories or vice versa. Just ask Felix Hernandez or Phil Hughes.
Let’s get started in Philadelphia with a pitcher whose name is etched into the leaderboard in ink. “The Four Horsemen” ride in 2011, led by this projected ERA leader.
1. Roy Halladay, Philadelphia
Analysis.: What do I need to say? As expected, Halladay obliterated National League hitters last season. He pitched to a 2.44 ERA, the second-lowest mark of his career. In the past five years, which four were spent navigating the AL East, Halladay has earned a composite 2.96 ERA (his ERA was lower than 2.80 in each of the past three seasons).
2010 ERA: 2.44
2011 ERA Projection: 2.40
2. Felix Hernandez, Seattle
Analysis.: Hernandez took a huge step forward in the 2008 season and registered a strong 3.45 ERA. The light flipped that season, and the Seattle starter hasn’t looked back. In the past two seasons, Hernandez has posted a dominant composite 2.38 ERA with a low-hit rate of 7.3 hits allowed per nine innings.
2010 ERA.: 2.27
2011 ERA Projection: 2.42
3. Tim Lincecum, San Francisco
Analysis.: Lincecum pitched to a 3.43 ERA in his lackluster 2010 season. Most of the damage was done during a four-game stretch in August where Lincecum allowed 19 earned runs in 19 innings pitched. He pitched to a more Lincecum-esque 2.90 ERA in his other 29 starts.
The two-time NL Cy Young Award winner produced ERAs of 2.62 and 2.48 in the previous two seasons. Lincecum’s hit rate rose in 2010, thereby resulting in the raised ERA and WHIP numbers. I expect a return to form in 2011.
2010 ERA.: 3.43
2011 ERA Projection: 2.58
4. Josh Johnson, Florida
Analysis.: Count Johnson among the growing list of pitching heroes who have returned and dominated post-Tommy John surgery. He’s pitched to a composite 2.94 ERA in 75 starts since returning to the Florida rotation. Johnson’s hit rate dropped in back-to-back seasons, and he owns impeccable control. Additionally, any balls hit in the air go to die in the spacious confines of Sun Life Stadium.
2010 ERA.: 2.30
2011 ERA Projection: 2.61
5. Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers
Analysis.: There’s so much to love about the delivery of Kershaw. His high-walk rate is irksome in fantasyland and, for Dodgers fans, as you can see the peak of his performance still off in the distance. However, it’s hard to complain about his low-hit rate (7.2 per nine innings) and dominant strikeout numbers (9.3 strikeouts per nine IP).
Kershaw effectively erases the free passes and has pitched to a sub-3.00 ERA in the past two years (with a 2.85 composite ERA). He owns a career 2.84 mark at Dodger Stadium.
2010 ERA.: 2.91
2011 ERA Projection: 2.83
6. Cliff Lee, Philadelphia
Analysis.: Lee was made to look human during his 15-game regular season run with Texas. He pitched to a pedestrian 3.98 ERA, including eight games in which he surrendered at least four earned runs. Lee owned a dominant 2.34 ERA in 12 starts for the Mariners before he was dealt to Texas. Taken further, Lee had pitched to a fantastic 2.78 in the 2008 and 2009 seasons. He’s back where he wants to be and is set for another huge run (he pitched to a 3.39 ERA in 12 starts for Philadelphia in 2009).
2010 ERA.: 3.18
2011 ERA Projection: 3.05
7t. Ubaldo Jimenez, Colorado
Analysis.: Jimenez’s high-walk rate continues to be a concern, but he’s certainly evolved as a pitcher in the past two seasons. His strikeout punch mitigates the damage caused by free passes. Jimenez pitched to a strong 3.18 ERA over 66 starts in those two seasons (with a 3.99 ERA in his first full season in 2008), and he vastly improved his road output in 2010 (with a 2.63 ERA in 18 starts).
2010 ERA.: 2.88
2011 ERA Projection: 3.13
7t. David Price, Tampa Bay
Analysis.: Price took his lumps in his first full season as a starter in 2009. Opposing batters took theirs in 2010, as Price grew into his role and mowed them down. Price pitched to a fantastic 2.72 ERA and allowed three or fewer runs in 28 of his 31 starts. In those 28 games, he owned a 2.28 ERA. The evolution continues this spring.
2010 ERA.: 2.72
2011 ERA Projection: 3.13
9. Jon Lester, Boston
Analysis.: Red Sox nation is revved up and ready for the 2011 season following the team’s high-profile moves this offseason. Lester will be their leader. In three years as a full-time starter, Lester has logged 50 wins while pitching to a composite 3.29 ERA.
A review of Lester’s game log reveals that four horrid starts greatly impacted his overall numbers. Lester allowed 30 earned runs in 18 innings in those four starts. He pitched to a 2.13 ERA in his other 28 starts.
2010 ERA.: 3.25
2011 ERA Projection: 3.20
10. C.C. Sabathia, New York Yankees
Analysis.: Sabathia remains one of the game’s top workhorses. Despite the yearly whispers about his conditioning, the 30-year-old southpaw routinely piles up wins and fantastic overall numbers. In the past five years, Sabathia has pitched to a tremendous 3.12 ERA. His worst ERA during his period was his 3.37 mark in 2009.
2010 ERA.: 3.18
2011 ERA Projection: 3.22
11. Zach Greinke, Milwaukee
Analysis.: Greinke has raised eyebrows this spring. Fantasy owners started draft season with thoughts of dominance and Cy Young potential. Now, they’re left scratching their heads and worrying about the fractured rib sustained by Greinke this offseason in a pickup basketball game. Greinke will reportedly be sidelined from 4-6 weeks.
Following two strong seasons as a starter after being promoted in 2007, Greinke regressed in 2010. His ERA rose two full runs from his 2009 brilliance as his hit rate soared (he allowed seven more home runs than he did in 2009). Despite this early setback, expectations for Greinke are huge. He’d pitched to ERA totals of 3.47 and 2.16 in the two seasons prior to last year’s regression. He’ll enjoy facing opposing pitchers.
2010 ERA.: 4.17
2011 ERA Projection: 3.23
12t. Matt Cain, San Francisco
Analysis.: I am somewhat concerned about the elbow injury that has beset Cain’s workouts this spring. However, the team is still optimistic that he’ll be ready for opening day, so we’ll proceed with that thought.
Cain reduced his walk rate in the past two years and markedly improved his ERA. In the 2009 and 2010 seasons, Cain pitched to a composite 3.02 ERA. He’ll give up his share of home runs (22 in back-to-back seasons), but his lower overall hit rate puts Cain among the leaders here.
2010 ERA.: 3.14
2011 ERA Projection: 3.25
12t. Roy Oswalt, Philadelphia
Analysis.: Oswalt pitched well in his 20 starts for the Astros in 2010 (3.42 ERA) prior to joining the Phillies. He then positively dominated opposing batters while pitching behind the strong Philadelphia lineup. Oswalt pitched to a ridiculous 1.74 ERA in his 13 appearances.
The 11th-year veteran owns a career 3.18 ERA, good for second among active starters who have pitched at least 1,000 innings behind Johan Santana. He’s pitched to an ERA of 3.54 or less in each of his 10 major-league seasons with the exception of the 2009 season (4.12).
2010 ERA.: 2.76
2011 ERA Projection: 3.25
14. Chris Carpenter, St. Louis
Analysis.: Carpenter’s hamstring injury is moderately concerning, but the Cardinals and veteran righty appear convinced that he’ll be ready come opening day. In his past four complete seasons (he appeared in only five games in 2007 and 2008), Carpenter has pitched to a composite 2.87 ERA.
Carpenter pitched full loads in back-to-back seasons following his injury-shortened campaign, and his innings total was just 6 2/3 innings shy of his career high.
2010 ERA.: 3.22
2011 ERA Projection: 3.28
15. Dan Haren, Los Angeles Angels
Analysis.: Haren struggled markedly in early 2010 with the Diamondbacks prior to turning things around in Los Angeles (Anaheim). He pitched to a 2.87 ERA in his 14 starts for the Angels, including a mind-boggling 2.08 ERA mark at Angel Stadium. The ballparks of the AL West are mighty forgiving.
2010 ERA.: 3.91
2011 ERA Projection: 3.32
