The days of a split between high-power production and a high batting average are long gone.
A quick review of the leaderboard of the past several years reveals a veritable “Who’s Who” of power brokers, including perennial MVP candidate Albert Pujols.
Why does anybody pitch to him again?
Last year, Josh Hamilton terrorized opposing pitchers to lead all of Major League Baseball with a robust .359 batting average. He didn’t spray the ball all over the field. No, he crushed line drives to the gap and sent flyballs sailing into the Arlington night. Fellow mashers Joey Votto, Carlos Gonzalez and Miguel Cabrera joined in the hit parade.
Of course, it’s not a full-on power barrage in this category. Players such as Ichiro Suzuki and Derek Jeter still have their place among the leaders. Who else joins the list for 2011?
1. Joe Mauer, C, Minnesota
Analysis: Mauer’s done everything he can to ensure that the hitting backdrop of Target Field becomes more amenable to dominance at the plate. He batted .314 at home against .339 on the road, and his power decline at home has been well-documented. Overall, Mauer matched his career .327 batting average and continued to spray doubles into the gap.
He’s never batted worse than .294 in any of his six major league seasons and has batted .327 or better in four of them. Mauer will also bat with the protection of Justin Morneau, who missed the second half of the 2010 season, in the fourth slot.
2010 Batting Average: .327
2011 Batting Average Projection: .341
2. Ichiro Suzuki, OF, Seattle
Analysis: Suzuki logged his 10th consecutive 200-hit season for the Mariners in what was a catastrophically disappointing season (Felix Hernandez’s brilliance notwithstanding). He may not get the support of a dominant lineup, but that doesn’t stop him from rapping out hits or running out grounders. Suzuki has never batted lower than .303 in a season and has posted four seasons in which he batted .350 or better.
2010 Batting Average: .315
2011 Batting Average Projection: .339
3. Albert Pujols, 1B, St. Louis
Analysis: Pujols established a new career low in this category last season. He still batted .312, aided by ridiculous efforts in April (.345) and August (.379). Pujols is a career .331 batter who had batted .327 or better in seven consecutive seasons prior to last year’s moderate downturn.
The 31-year-old slugger’s contract negotiations are the talk of the spring. His swing will be the talk of the summer.
2010 Batting Average: .312
2011 Batting Average Projection: .338
4. Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Detroit
Analysis: Cabrera’s off-field issues are worth watching, but there’s no speculation or trepidation about projecting what happens inside the batter’s box. He just flat-out rakes the ball all over the field. Cabrera possesses a career .313 batting average and has hit .320 or better in five of the past six seasons (hit .292 in 2008).
2010 Batting Average: .328
2011 Batting Average Projection: .333
5. Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Colorado
Analysis: Gonzalez strikes out a ton and isn’t a fan of taking pitches (had 40 walks in 627 plate appearances last season), but his numbers on balls put in play are astounding. In 319 games, Gonzalez has batted a ridiculous .396 on balls in play. During last year’s heroics in Colorado, Gonzalez posted a mind-boggling .436 BABIP. You did a double-take, didn’t you?
Gonzalez batted .380 in Coors Field last season and slammed 26 of his 34 home runs in the home park. He’ll celebrate a monster contract with a huge follow-up season, although expecting the .396 BABIP to hold is perhaps optimistic.
2010 Batting Average: .336
2011 Batting Average Projection: .323
6. Carl Crawford, OF, Boston
Analysis: Crawford isn’t the most selective hitter, but he was efficient during his time in Tampa. He batted .296 in his 8 1/2 seasons with the Rays and batted .301 or better in five of his final six seasons, including a career-best .315 in 2007. He moves to a fantastic ballpark with a loaded lineup that should provide tremendous hitting situations.
2010 Batting Average: .307
2011 Batting Average Projection: .322
7. Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Colorado
Analysis: Can he stay healthy? That’s the question fantasy owners and Rockies fans are asking entering the 2011 season. After all, he just got paid a ton of cash and comes off the board in the upper-half of the first round.
He had a dominant 122-game turn in 2010 in which Tulowitzki batted a career-best .315 while logging his normal power production. Tulowitzki owns a strong career .290 batting average, including a .312 lifetime mark at Coors Field. Owners should note that he finally produced a strong first half in 2010 (.306). His lifetime first-half batting average is 51 points lower than his second-half production (.263 against .314).
2010 Batting Average: .315
2011 Batting Average Projection: .321
8t. Joey Votto, 1B, Cincinnati
Analysis: The name “Votto” just rolls off of the tongue, doesn’t it? Votto batted a career-best .324 while obliterating opposing pitchers in 2010. In his three-plus seasons in Cincinnati, Votto has posted a composite .314 batting average to go along with fantastic power production. Interestingly, he’s actually batted 26 points higher away from Great American Ballpark in his career and hit 52 points lower at home during his 2010 MVP campaign.
2010 Batting Average: .324
2011 Batting Average Projection: .318
8t. Hanley Ramirez, SS, Florida
Analysis: Imagine a world where Ramirez batted in a more advantageous ballpark. OK, that’s not happening anytime soon, so continue to marvel at his efforts in Florida. Ramirez has batted .292 or better in each of his five seasons in Florida, including robust .332 and .342 marks in 2007 and 2009, respectively. He owns a fantastic .313 lifetime mark (.314 at Sun Life Stadium), good for ninth among active players.
2010 Batting Average: .300
2011 Batting Average Projection: .318
10. Josh Hamilton, OF, Texas
Analysis: Hamilton positively crushed opposing pitching last season. He batted an absurd .359 in his 133 games despite the fact that he entered June with a .281 batting average. That’s right. Hamilton batted .405 in his final 85 games and logged an incredible .390 home mark (had a .332 lifetime batting average in Arlington).
The lineup is loaded and ready for an encore, with Mike Napoli and Adrian Beltre joining the fun. Barring another spate of injuries, Hamilton will push to repeat his MVP performance.
2010 Batting Average: .359
2011 Batting Average Projection: .317
11. Ryan Braun, OF, Milwaukee
Analysis: Put simply, Braun is a beast. He’s a five-category hero in what should be a contending Milwaukee lineup this season. He owns a career .307 batting average in four seasons, including two seasons in which he batted .324 (his rookie campaign) and .320 (2009). Braun possesses a dominant career .385 BABIP.
2010 Batting Average: .304
2011 Batting Average Projection: .316
12t. Matt Holliday, OF, St. Louis
Analysis: Holliday has been one of the game’s premier hitters since becoming an everyday player in Colorado since 2004. With the exception of his brief 93-game stay in Oakland, Holliday has torn apart opposing pitching. It should be noted that Holliday still batted .286 during his run in the Oakland-Alameda County Stadium, but his power production suffered.
He possesses a lifetime .317 batting average and has hit .312 or better in five consecutive seasons (hit .313 in 2009 after tearing up National League pitching to the tune of a .353 batting average in St. Louis).
2010 Batting Average: .312
2011 Batting Average Projection: .315
12t. Derek Jeter, SS, New York Yankees
Analysis: Jeter posted a career-low .270 batting average last season, prompting many discussions about age and decline in New York (Mariano Rivera, thought to be a Cyborg, is exempt from this discussion). He’d batted .291 or better in 14 consecutive seasons prior to last season’s drop-off, including seven seasons in which he batted at least .322.
Obviously, there’s some risk associated with the 36-year-old shortstop, but I don’t anticipate a repeat of last year’s struggles. He batted a dismal .246 on the road against a strong .295 home mark.
2010 Batting Average: .270
2011 Batting Average Projection: .315
14. Robinson Cano, 2B, New York Yankees
Analysis: Cano struggled in 2008, prompting many to wonder about his long-term future in the Bronx. He immediately left that season in the rearview mirror and has put together fantastic back-to-back campaigns in which he batted a composite .320. In fact, Cano has batted .319 or better in three of the past five seasons and owns a career .309 batting average.
2010 Batting Average: .319
2011 Batting Average Projection: .313
15t. Martin Prado, 2B/3B, Atlanta
Analysis: Prado has been an outstanding contributor to the Atlanta lineup since becoming an everyday player in the 2008 season. He’s batted .309 in 346 games with solid power production for a middle infielder. Prado has batted .307 in back-to-back seasons, and last season’s output was spurred by a .353 home batting average. He now qualifies as a veteran performer in a youthful Atlanta lineup.
2010 Batting Average: .307
2011 Batting Average Projection: .312
15t. Nick Markakis, OF, Baltimore
Analysis: Markakis’ power production has left many, including many Baltimore fans, disappointed. However, it’s hard to argue with his high-doubles count and lifetime .298 batting average (hit .291 or better in each of his five major league seasons). This season, the Orioles actually worked to improve the lineup and offer him some support. He has an exceptional batting eye and works the count.
2010 Batting Average: .297
2011 Batting Average Projection: .312
