As a former bookmaker, setting win totals always provided a welcomed challenge because they attract professional bettors the same way AAU basketball tournaments attract sports agents. Regular season wins create great buzz however they're rarely a lucrative venture for most casinos, paling in comparison to the profits achieved by a competitive futures market.
For those reading the column out there about to go; "wait, your win projections don't equal the exact number of wins available during the season!" That's not a mistake or done on accident; the prices are inflated in anticipation of the public's tendency to look for overs. Afterall, most recreational gamblers find it more entertaining to root for wins all season long over teams compiling 2-14 regular seasons
Gambler's Note: Juice you see attached to my win totals indicate additional “tax” or vigorish used to increase or decrease payouts on a wager. Juice is the biggest deterrent to back professionals off a particular bet because consistently laying a steep price erodes your bankroll faster than the traditional 11/10. Half games are used as an intermediate step but juice is added at every price point before a half game would be added or subtracted from the opener.
Example of a typical line move:
Step 1: Price Opens 8
Step 2: Line moves to 8 Over -120
Step 3: Line moves to 8 over -140.
Step 4: So much money keeps flowing in on the over the next step is to go to 8.5
Step 5: Line than goes to 8.5 over -120, 8.5 over -140 etc. You get the idea
Each bookmaker determines how large a move to make between price points based on expected liability and risk threshold.
Rather than speculate on who may come from off the pace to have a surprise season, here are my way too early projected win totals for all 32 NFL teams.
2013 Projected Win Totals
Broncos 12.5
Patriots 12.5
49ers 12
Packers 12
Seahawks 11.5
Falcons 11 Over -125
Colts 10
Texans 9.5
Bears 9
Bengals 9
Giants 9
Saints 9
Cowboys 8.5
Redskins 8.5 Over -125
Steelers 8.5
Ravens 8 Over -130
Panthers 7.5 Under -125
Buccaneers 7
Rams 7
Vikings 7
Bills 6.5 Over -125
Chiefs 6.5 Over -125
Dolphins 6.5 Over -120
Eagles 6.5 Under -125
Lions 6.5
Browns 6
Chargers 6 Over -120
Jets 6 Over -125
Titans 6
Cardinals 6 Under -125
Raiders 5
Jaguars 4 Under -120
Updated Super Bowl odds from LVH Superbook
PATRIOTS 5
49ERS 6
BRONCOS 6
PACKERS 12
SEAHAWKS 7
TEXANS 12
FALCONS 16
STEELERS 20
SAINTS 18
RAVENS 30
GIANTS 18
REDSKINS 30
BEARS 30
BENGALS 30
COWBOYS 30
CHARGERS 50
LIONS 50
VIKINGS 50
COLTS 30
PANTHERS 60
JETS 100
EAGLES 60
DOLPHINS 40
RAMS 60
BUCS 40
BROWNS 60
CHIEFS 60
TITANS 100
BILLS 100
CARDINALS 150
RAIDERS 200
JAGUARS 200
