All futures prices courtesy of the LVH
Oregon 9-2: You bet your ass these Ducks are contenders for a national championship but are they worth betting? Chip Kelly or not it looks like Oregon will be just as explosive as long as Marcus Mariota and De’Anthony Thomas are in uniform. Schedule wise I don’t see major landmines outside of a trip to Palo Alto against the Cardinal. The price isn’t great and in gambling that’s all that matters meaning unless you can find them at 6-1 or better, I can’t make a case for betting them here. PASS
Georgia 20-1: Ah yes, the Clay Travis special. The Dawgs shook off their opening week loss to Clemson and bounced back against USC telling the country they’re not dead yet. Plain and simple for the Bulldogs: run the table and you can bring a national championship back to Athens. The defense needs to grow up quickly or the game against LSU in late September will squash those title dreams and for me I just haven't seen enough to justify an investment here. Pass
Texas A&M 20-1: Beat Alabama and I’ll believe in you, no really I will. Of course that would then mean the price gets cut in half. There are too many tough games standing in the Aggies way to make a real run at the national championship. Eventually a mediocre defense will be the Achilles Heel and keep them from bringing a title to College Station. Sell
Ohio St 5-1: Braxton Miller is awesome…Ohio St is not. There’s no way I can back this team at such a short market price. Although their schedule isn’t daunting, I don’t see them getting through unscathed and a 1 loss Big Ten team won’t be able to sneak into the top 2 slots of the BCS. Sell
LSU 20-1: My pick to get out of the SEC West. Yep, I’ve spent way too many nights at the club lately meaning this selection is the remnant of poor judgment. Zach Mettenberger will end up being the best QB in the entire conference by the time the year’s over and I believe LSU finds enough from the defense to become an awfully balanced side and scary out all season long. Buy
Clemson 12-1: No, they’re Clemson; the idea of considering them at this price is unfathomable. Sell
Stanford 12-1: This may be the best team in the nation no one talks about. Hell, the Cardinal have won as many games as Alabama since 2010 yet they continue to fly under the radar. They don’t have that “feel” of a title contender however a win against Oregon in back to back seasons would be no small feat. This is a price worth nibbling on if you believe the smart kids can put an end to the SEC’s dominance. Buy
Michigan 12-1: I’m not even going to justify this with a serious discussion. I do hope today isn’t the first day that Clay’s wife Lara reads my column because that might not bode well for my future contributions to OKTC. Sell...TWICE
Florida St 12-1: Now we’re cooking with peanut oil on a team I think will be there until the bitter end. Florida St has 2 landmines on their schedule in the form of Clemson and Florida (no, I won’t count NC State). Jameis Winston is the real deal, his debut against Pittsburgh wasn’t a fluke. The young pivot will be the catalyst for leading the Seminoles quest to number 1 but the hard part about investing here is the price has dropped considerably from the open. Oh well...BUY
Baylor 75-1: I know what you’re thinking, where the hell does he get off even considering this team. Hear me out: home games against OU and Texas given what I’ve seen through 2 weeks are very manageable when you consider the Bears will be less than a FG underdog in both of them. Road trips to Oklahoma St and TCU in late November aren’t easy however 75-1 won't be on the board then if the Bears enter that pivotal stretch undfeated. Call me crazy…ok yea this isn’t happening but it would be one hell of a story if Bryce Petty gives the Bears a punchers chance in what could be a whacky year in the Big XII. BUY...small
Teams under 100-1 where you’d be better off burning your money than betting them to win the national title:
UCLA 40-1
Nebraska 30-1
Oklahoma 30-1
Louisville 25-1
Wisconsin 60-1
How does Vegas see the top 25?
Best Prop for the Weekend Courtesy of Bovada:
Will Johnny Manziel get an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty? Yes +150 / No -200
My Odds on First Coach to get fired in 2013:
Trent Miles (Georgia St): 2-1
Ron English (Eastern Michigan): 5-2
Bobby Hauck (UNLV): 7-2
Paul Pasqualoni (UConn): 5-1
Lane Kiffin (USC): 10-1
