In the past 24 hours, Saturday's Kentucky Derby has gone from a one-horse victory parade to a 20-horse scramble that has even top trainers scratching their heads.
The disappearance of hot favorite Eskendereya, the sudden entry of the exciting filly Devil May Care, the scratching of Rule, the likely non-appearance of Interactif, the entry of Jackson Bend and possibly others have combined to turn the famous old classic into a betting lottery.
No one summed it up better than trainer Bob Baffert. "There's no standout in this race," he told the media multitudes at the track Monday after his colt, Lookin at Lucky, the new likely favorite, completed his final workout.
"My horse should not be favorite. Sidney's Candy beat me by nearly five lengths in the Santa Anita Derby. He should be the favorite.
"This Derby is close. I'm not here thinking I've got everyone over a barrel. Whoever gets the luck in running will win. This race is just so hard to win. There are about 10 horses in the field that could be this year's Mine That Bird [last year's 50-1 upset winner]."
If anyone disagrees with Baffert, try this quick quiz: Which horse is going into the Derby with the highest last out Beyer speed figure?
You'll never guess, but it is none other than the Sunland Derby winner, Endorsement, who scored a 101 Beyer. Next to him is Sidney's Candy, who checked in with a 100 in winning the Santa Anita Derby.
Mine That Bird could do no better than fourth in last year's Sunland Derby, scoring an 80 Beyer, before winning the Kentucky Derby.
On the Beyer scale, Endorsement is way ahead of Mine That Bird.
If Endorsement pulls it off, he's going to make history that will last as long as the Derby is run. He is trained by Shannon Ritter, and she would thus become the first woman trainer to win the Derby in its 136 years.
The colt has had only four lifetime starts. The last horse to win the Derby after only four races was Exterminator back in 1918. Since then, 26 horses have tried and failed.
At her barn Monday, Ritter, a former jockey, was unconcerned.
"He has the foundation and the breeding to win the Derby," she said. "He's a very kind horse to ride, you can put him anywhere you want."
Ritter should know. She weighs just 110 pounds and rides Endorsement in all his gallops and works.
"He went beautifully [Monday] and we'll breeze him half a mile Wednesday," she said.
Like Baffert, Ritter thinks the Derby is anyone's race.
"It's wide open," she said.
Endorsement, a son of Distorted Humor out of an A.P. Indy mare, was bought for $400,000 at the Keeneland yearling sales by the Kentucky-based WinStar racing and breeding operation, best known for breeding the 2003 Derby winner, Funny Cide.
Most of their horses are in the hands of top trainers like Bill Mott, Todd Pletcher and Eoin Harty, but last November they sent Endorsement to Ritter at the Fair Grounds in New Orleans after he flopped badly in his debut at Churchill Downs.
In his first start for her, Endorsement ran a sharp second at 14-1. He coasted in at his next start to break his maiden, then thrown into the deep water of the Sunland Derby, Endorsement sat off the pace and powered home to win by three lengths -- beating Baffert's other Kentucky Derby runner, Conveyance.
Endorsement ran his last three furlongs in 36.3 seconds, the last furlong in 12.3. If he can run those times at Churchill on Saturday, he could get draped in roses.
Ritter has just five horses in her stable. If she can get the money Saturday, it will be the biggest day in her life.
"It would be good for me and for all women if we can win," she said.
She might do just that.
