It’s Day 1 of my annual trip to Glendale, Arizona, to see the Los Angeles Dodgers in spring training.
It’s not so glorious around the Dodgers these days, but arriving to the 30-degree warmer weather puts all that aside.
On Tuesday, I saw home runs from Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier, and that’s not exactly big news. But combine Tony Gwynn, Jr. hitting a home run off Takashi Saito, and Aaron Miles hitting a home run off Eulogio De La Cruz, and the trip may have already reached its Twilight Zone moment.
Here is my pitchers preview, including some top 10s.
Fantasy Starters
Roy Halladay, Philadelphia
I wouldn’t take him in the first round of a 12-team standard league draft, but he’s easily the top pitcher on my board. The Phillies are the odds-on favorite to win another World Series, and Halladay will be a big part of the equation. Halladay turns 34 in May, but he’s yet to even show a hint of a decline.
Felix Hernandez, Seattle
The offense and bullpen look to be anemic, but the infield defense behind Hernandez could be the best in baseball. The outfield looks pretty good, too, but just how is this team going to score runs barring Justin Smoak suddenly becoming Lou Gehrig?
Jon Lester, Boston
He had back-to-back 225-srikeout seasons and just turned 27. He'll get Sabathia money if the Red Sox ever let him hit the open market.
Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers
Kershaw is going to win a Cy Young sometime in the next five years. It’s just a question of which uniform he’ll be wearing, Dodgers Blue or pinstripes. It all depends on the L.A. ownership situation. The only question surrounding Kershaw coming into last year was his command. He answered that with a 3.0 BB/9 after the All-Star break. He turns 23 later this month.
Tim Lincecum, San Francisco
Lincecum had some issues with his mechanics and velocity at times last year, but ultimately he wound up leading the National League with 231 strikeouts while winning 16 games. Expect more of the same in 2011.
Jered Weaver, Los Angeles Angels
Last year’s strikeout king turned 28 in October and should easily improve upon his 13-12 record from a year ago.
CC Sabathia, New York Yankees
Now has an elite bullpen and a strong offense supporting him.
Cole Hamels, Philadelphia
I talked at length about Hamels last week, so I’ll just repeat his post-break 2010 numbers: 2.23 ERA and 104:22 K:BB in 96.2 innings. He’s five years younger than Cliff Lee and might already be better.
Cliff Lee, Philadelphia
Had to have him here somewhere.
Mat Latos, San Diego
The wins might not be there consistently, but the Padres are set to take the gloves off this year and let him go 210-plus innings. The net result could be 230 strikeouts with a sub-3.00 ERA. After the break last year, Latos posted a 90:22 K:BB in 78 innings. The sky is the limit. There are certainly safe guys (Matt Cain, Lee, etc.) to take this early, but I just wanted to underscore how impressed I am with Latos.
Surprises
Jhoulys Chacin, Colorado
The home/road ERA splits (3.98/2.44) are concerning, but Chacin possesses the stuff to be a legitimate No. 2 to Ubaldo Jimenez’s No. 1. First, he had 138 strikeouts in 137.1 innings. Second, he had a strong minor-league track record. Third, he had a 2.24 ERA after the All-Star break last year. With less of a stigma attached to Coors Field pitchers these days, Chacin should be on all radars.
Colby Lewis, Texas
Lewis came over from Japan with little fanfare last year, but proceeded to post a sub-4.00 ERA with 196 strikeouts. A slight regression wouldn’t be a big surprise, but neither would Lewis outperforming a pitcher like Roy Oswalt. You don’t strike out nearly 200 batters by accident.
Scott Baker, Minnesota
This is the year … no really … well, maybe.
Tommy Hanson, Atlanta
His stuff is just too electric to not put him on one of these lists.
Chris Narveson, Milwaukee
He was once a top prospect with the Cardinals, though that was seven years ago. Maybe he’s just a late bloomer. Narveson made 14 starts after the All-Star break last year, delivering a 3.89 ERA in 81 innings with a respectable 66:24 K:BB. NL-only leaguers take note.
Ervin Santana, Los Angeles Angels
Sort of the forgotten man behind Dan Haren and Jered Weaver. It wouldn’t shock if he was the team’s second-best starter this year.
Flops
For this category, compare a prior-year ERA vs. a metric such as xFIP that measures how a pitcher should have pitched based on his component metrics (K/9, BB/9 and HR/9).
Justin Masterson, Cleveland
This former second rounder gets sleeper attention for 8.3 and 7.0 K/9s during the last two years, but his splits are scary. He had a .290/.370/.414 vs. LHP and had 103 fewer OPS vs. RHP. At least that was better than the near-300 point spread in 2009. He also can’t seem to pitch on the road, making him a one-trick pony.
Tim Lincecum, San Francisco
I already talked about Lincecum as one of the game’s top fantasy pitchers, but we saw a few chinks in the armor a year ago with fewer strikeouts, more walks and a drop in velocity. Lincecum’s stuff is still well above average and he hides the ball well. So he’ll continue to be very good, but just not be 2008 good.
Trevor Cahill, Oakland
Further development will at least partially offset the coming regression, but, in many leagues, look for Cahill to be drafted too early based upon his 18 wins and 2.97 ERA. Those solid numbers help mask a 5.4 K/9 and .238 BABIP, so compiling an ERA of a full run higher wouldn’t surprise.
Jeff Niemann, Tampa Bay
Niemann’s 2010 second half ERA of 7.69 should raise red flags all over the place, particularly given his injury history. He’s stayed healthy enough to amass 59 starts for the last two years, but he’s not a pitcher to buy in 2011.
C.J. Wilson, Texas
From 73.2 innings as a reliever in 2009 to 204 last year (not counting the playoffs), Wilson is a prime risk for arm troubles. I’m also not fond of the 4.1 BB/9 and the unfriendly confines of his home park, so put a “stay away” label on him.
Jorge De La Rosa, Colorado
De La Rosa’s walk rate held steady at a mediocre 4.1 last year, but his strikeout rate dipped to 8.4 K/9 and a finger injury limited him to 20 starts. He does a good job inducing ground balls, but it's still uncertain if he won't disappoint again.
Edinson Volquez, Cincinnati
After having Tommy John surgery. the stuff was still there in 2010 (with a 9.6 K/9). But he had some really ugly starts and finished with a 5.0 BB/9 in 62.2 innings. It looks like he’s on the path of Francisco Liriano with taking an extra-long recovery. If you can afford to be patient, however, the rewards could be significant.
Dallas Braden, Oakland
If he has a sub-3.60 ERA again, I’ll take up MMA. Maybe I just need to see more of him, but I’m skeptical of a guy who has a slow fastball.
Brett Myers, Houston
I find it interesting that FanGraphs rated Myers’ fastball as the sixth-least effective among all big-league starters last year. Now, his breaking stuff was well above average, but I also have to wonder how playing for a terrible franchise is going to affect him in 2011.
Dan Haren, Los Angeles Angels
His component numbers dipped slightly last year, and he threw more pitches (3,749) than any player in baseball. He’ll still be solid, but perhaps one or more of the three teams that has traded Haren in the last six years knows something.
Emerging Setup Relievers
Jordan Walden, Los Angeles Angels
He has upper-90s gas, and Fernando Rodney as his closer. Though Kevin Jepsen is a competitor for saves, this is the Angels closer.
David Hernandez, Arizona
The D-backs have J.J. Putz to close. But if the old injury-prone Putz resurfaces, Arizona will need to turn to Juan Gutierrez or Hernandez. The latter has taken well to his new role as a reliever, recording an 8.2 K/9 a year ago. He also allows too many flyballs and walks (4.8 BB/9), but Hernandez improved as the year progressed.
Aroldis Chapman, Cincinnati
It’s not because I have him as a keeper in my Scoresheet League where starters have a ton of value, but the Reds are wasting his talents in the bullpen. No, he’s not going to throw 105 miles-per-hour consistently. But if the Reds leave him in the pen, he’s likely to eventually get the ball in the ninth. How about Chapman in the rotation and Homer Bailey as the closer?
Tony Sipp, Cleveland
Apparently, the Indians figured 2011 was another write-off year, as they failed to address any of their holes in the pitching staff. For the bullpen, that leaves Sipp as the likely closer-in-waiting behind Chris Perez. Sipp struggled with his command (5.6 BB/9) and with the long ball (1.7 HR/9) in 2010. But he has shown some signs (has a career 10.2 K/9) of being a potential closing option.
Jeremy Jeffress, Kansas City
Jeffress reaches the upper 90s and is just 23. If Joakim Soria is traded or gets hurt, Jeffress could be in a position to close. With his stuff, he could be great.
Kenley Jansen, Los Angeles Dodgers
You may remember him as a catcher for Team Netherlands in 2009. Incredibly, a year later, he was pitching in Los Angles and reaching the mid-to-upper 90s while striking out 41 batters in just 27 innings (13.7 K/9). He’s still in need of some polish, but keep an eye on the reliever who could be Jonathan Broxton’s successor.
Daniel Cortes, Seattle
I’ll just reiterate that I’m unimpressed with Brandon League, and David Aardsma (rib) is still hurt.
Tyler Clippard, Washington
Drew Storen might not be ready to close by Opening Day, and Clippard struck out 102 in relief a year ago.
Joel Peralta, Tampa Bay
Kyle Farnsworth and Jacob McGee are ahead of Peralta on the pecking order. While it’s easy to be skeptical of the 34-year-old Peralta’s 2.02 ERA last year, there may be an opportunity for a few vulture wins and saves.
Bobby Parnell, New York Mets
Parnell was impressive last year after opening the season in Triple-A. With the Mets needing to cut payroll, it’s easy to see them doing whatever it takes to avoid Francisco Rodriguez’s $17.5 million vesting option to kick in 2012. Note: Options vest with 55 games finished.
Rookie Callups
Assuming Michael Pineda, Kyle Drabek and Mike Minor all open in their respective rotations ...
Julio Teheran, Atlanta
I don’t care how much he's inexperienced, and neither do the Braves. He’s the best pitching prospect in the game, and he’s opening in Triple-A. I might even stash him in year-to-year leagues.
Jordan Lyles, Houston
Lyles doesn’t have quite the upside as some pitching prospects. But he’s just 20 and split last year between the two highest minor-league levels. He can certainly be a No. 3 starter in the big leagues as early as this year.
Jarrod Parker, Arizona
He's reportedly recovering well from Tommy John surgery. Parker should make his big-league debut this year. He could be the team’s top starter by sometime in 2012.
Kyle Gibson, Minnesota
Like many Minnesota starters, Gibson features excellent command and middle-of-the-rotation upside. He was a first-round pick in 2009.
Zack Britton, Baltimore
From what I’ve seen of Britton (limited to be sure) and the rest of the Baltimore starters, it’s pretty clear he’s one of their best five. That said, look for the Orioles to wisely delay starting his service time.
Simon Castro, San Diego
He has the stuff to be their No. 2 or 3 starter by 2012. We should see him in San Diego this year where he could be a fantasy asset right away.
Jenrry Mejia, New York Mets
He will head to Triple-A to build stamina as a starter. The Mets make a good decision and avoid the temptation to slot him as a reliever for their beleaguered bullpen. It’s good to see a team looking at the big picture.
Alex White, Cleveland
White will open in Triple-A, but the former No. 1 pick doesn’t have the Phillies rotation blocking him. He should be a solid AL-only play once he’s called up to the majors.
Chris Archer, Tampa Bay
The key piece of the Matt Garza deal could have the upside of … Matt Garza. He opens in Triple-A.
Zach Stewart, Toronto
He's not a hard thrower, but he could be just a tick behind Drabek in time.
