So soon? The Padres already are screeching into the offseason after this weekend in San Francisco, and you know what that means.
Questions. Lots of cold weather, Hot Stove questions.
Good thing I have answers.
Will Bud Black be back managing the Padres next summer?
Yes. And he should be.
New general manager A.J. Preller has spent part of his first few weeks on the job establishing a rapport with Black, and what started as a mutual respect is described as having flourished from there. The Padres have been routinely outmanned for much of this season - with the bats, obviously - yet have continued to have defy the odds in refusing to crash land.
Their 32-19 record in one-run games is the best in the majors, which tells you two things: Black is not getting outmaneuvered in key, late-inning situations, and his players continue to play hard.
Since the All-Star break, they are 23-7 at home in Petco Park, best home record in the majors. Which tells you two more things: The Padres pitch to this park exceptionally well, and, surprise, surprise, much as this park disfavors hitters, it is still possible for the local nine to win at home.
So how do the Padres improve their offense?
Most likely, by dealing a starting pitcher this winter.
Ian Kennedy is under club control for only one more season and is represented by Scott Boras. Plus, he is coming off of a very good, 200-strikeout season. Sell high? The guess here is yes.
Another option is dealing Andrew Cashner if, internally, the Padres decide that the odds are he will not be able to stay healthy. But only if they come to that conclusion.
Then, best-case scenario: Youngsters Cory Spangenberg, Tommy Medica and Rymer Liriano grow fast, bypassing the baby steps (though Liriano's regression over the past couple of weeks has been alarming). Hunter Renfroe, the Padres' first-round pick in 2013 with big power, graduates from the minors at an accelerated pace (he split this year between Class A Fort Wayne and Double-A San Antonio, with a combined slash line of .267/.342/.470 with 21 homers and 75 RBI)
Worst-case scenario? Don't ask.
What will next year's lineup look like?
This is where this winter could be more fun than a week's worth of watching the monkeys at the San Diego Zoo.
Here's what I've got: Second baseman Jedd Gyorko is the only lock for 2015 among the position players. That's it. No, he hasn't exactly distinguished himself at .208/.271/.334 with 10 homers and 51 RBI. But you've heard of the Sophomore Jinx? The Padres must hope his rough start in 2014 was that. Whatever, there's little choice but to stick with him and hope he flashes his rookie pop in 2015. That's when we'll begin to see which is the real Gyorko.
ST. LOUIS, MO - AUGUST 16: Jedd Gyorko #9 of the San Diego Padres hits a grand slam in the seventh inning against the St. Louis Cardinals at Busch Stadium on August 16, 2014 in St. Louis, Missouri.
And, don't be surprised if the Gyorko we watch next season is playing third base, not second. Stay tuned.
Otherwise? Look for Preller to hold more trade talks than a penny stock novice desperate to pay the mortgage. There is every reason to believe the man who will play first base for the Padres next year isn't even wearing a Padres uniform yet. Same with several other positions.
Yonder Alonso? Please. If Preller can't deal him, non-tender him. You can't risk going to arbitration to pay for another summer of that. If there is any money at all available to sign one free agent, the Padres should investigate Michael Cuddyer, a veteran leader, good guy and, most importantly, a professional hitter (and whose Rockies contract is up). Arizona will be looking to trade Mark Trumbo. His on-base percentage is not good, but his raw power will play in Petco. And the Nationals need to find a position for Ryan Zimmerman - maybe that will be first base, and Adam LaRoche is placed on the market. You never know. One of these guys at first base would be a godsend.
Everth Cabrera? Hamstring still healing, he hasn't been seen since his arrest. Not that Alexi Amarista is the long-term answer, either, but who would you rather watch? At least Amarista can stay on the field, and his defensive play at short has been terrific. If Everth were a cat, his nine lives would have been up a couple of months ago.
Yangervis Solarte? Nice utility player. And from what we've seen of him this year, best part is, he doesn't play scared. He swings and he's aggressive.
So that's the infield. Outfield? Seth Smith, Cameron Maybin, Will Venable and Carlos Quentin all are signed for next year. Smith has been serviceable (the team-leading .370 on-base percentage is solid), and there's a place for a lefty hitter, but he's still a fourth outfielder on a winning team. Maybin and Venable continue to be bitterly disappointing. Maybin regularly reaches up to hold his batting helmet onto his head while attempting to beat out infield ground balls, for crying out loud. Who does that? If this outfield mix is brought back intact in 2015, I'm the mayor of Coronado.
As for Quentin, if Preller can make him disappear, the GM surely has a job waiting as a Magician in Residence in Las Vegas when he's through with baseball.
Aside from three of the four infield spots and much of the outfield, the one area that isn't a dire emergency is behind the plate. Rene Rivera has had a surprisingly good year. Rivera and Yasmani Grandal might not be the second-coming of Johnny Bench and Pudge Rodriguez, but there are other pressing needs to be addressed first.
Who is the Padres' MVP this year?
Rivera, with the versatile Amarista the runner up. Rivera is hitting .252/.319/.431 with 10 homers and 40 RBI and he's done a beautiful job handling a very good pitching staff. Plus, he's thrown out 28 of 86 would-be base-stealers (32.6 percent), the 28 being the most in the majors.
Who is the Padres' Pitcher of the Year?
Tyson Ross, of course. Cashner ranks high among the most impressive individual performances for the Detroit game in April and the Phillies and Giants games this month, but he needs to prove he can stay healthy. Ross? His combination of stellar work and workload was unbeatable this season. Among those who qualified, he led the team in ERA (2.81), WHIP (1.21) and opponents' batting average (.230).
Jul 19, 2014; San Diego, CA, USA; San Diego Padres starting pitcher Tyson Ross (left) talks with catcher Rene Rivera (44) during the sixth inning against the New York Mets at Petco Park.
So what are we supposed to do without baseball?
I just do what Hall of Famer Rogers Hornsby did.
"People ask me what I do in the winter when there's no baseball," Hornsby once said. "I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring."
Me too. Have a safe and happy winter, and see you next season.
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Follow Scott Miller on Twitter @ScottMillerBbl
