Outkick's Gambling Picks For Week 5 2016
Last week our Outkick picks went 6-6 -- I gave out the over 51 on Louisville Saturday morning on Twitter after news broke that Marshall's starting quarterback was out with a concussion and the over/under in our blood bank guarantee started to plummet. We won both of these bets with ease. If you want additional picks on gameday you need to be following me on Twitter if you aren't already.
This means that our yearly gambling record is now 27-20. But we're just 14-14 in our last 28 bets.
It's time to get hot again.
Which is exactly what we're going to do this week.
We're going 12-0 baby!
But first, here's another segment of Daniel Tosh playing Lane Kiffin on his call in show. (By the way, I have no idea who is playing Layla Kiffin in this skit, but I'm in love with her).
Stanford +3 at Washington and the under 44
Put simply, I believe that Stanford is the better team here and that Washington isn't quite ready for prime time.
So, as the more battle hardened team, I think Stanford wins outright and it's a low scoring, ugly game.
This game is Friday night so don't blow it and fail to get your bets in because you're going to be sitting at 2-0 come Saturday morning when you wake up and start drinking again.
Memphis at Ole Miss, the over 66.5
Memphis has scored at least 35 points in all three games its played -- including 77 last week against Bowling Green -- and Ole Miss has scored at least 34 in every game.
What's that tell you?
Points, lots of points.
It's Swag Kelly time.
Ole Miss wins 52-31 and you hit the over with ease.
Wisconsin at Michigan, the over 44.5
Jim Harbaugh's Michigan team has scored at least 45 in every game so far this season. I know, I know, Wisconsin has a great defense! But I'm not honestly sure that's true, I just don't think they've played anyone with a really good offense yet.
Which means Michigan scores at least 35.
The line being set at Wolverins -10.5 seems like a trap, but the over here is a cake walk.
Enjoy your over win with a delicious Zingerman's pastry!
Louisville -2 at Clemson and the under 67.5
I bet Louisville at +2 as soon as this line came out and it has since moved four points in the opposite direction, but I still think Bobby Petrino's boys get the win and cover. Here's what I don't believe though -- that this game is going to be as high scoring as the first four Louisville games have been. I think Dabo and company know the only way they can win this game is by taking the air out of the football.
That means longer drives and less explosive plays.
I also think this Clemson defense is for real.
So far Louisville has scored 59 or more in every game, but I think that comes down precipitously in this contest, with Louisville only scoring 31 and Clemson scoring 28.
Bang, that's an easy under and Louisville covers by a single point.
(By the way, if I'm wrong and Louisville hangs 59 or more on Clemson, then go ahead and put them in the playoff, I don't need to see anything more.)
Kentucky at Alabama -35 and the over 57.5
This is another game that I bet as soon as the line came out, I took the Tide at -33 and it has since risen to -35 -- should I start charging you guys to see my early week picks? What a money maker that could be.
But even at -35 I still think this is a name your score game for Alabama.
Kentucky gave up 42 points to freaking New Mexico State, there's no way Alabama isn't scoring 50 on them. Figure that Alabama is scoring 52 and that means all we need from Kentucky is a single touchdown to hit the over.
Call it 52-10 Alabama, you hit the over and cover the spread.
This bet is more clutch than Joey Freshwater at Innisfree on a Saturday night in March!
It's my first ever, double panty dropping guarantee.
Tennessee -3 at Georgia
No one on Georgia's offensive line can block Derek Barnett and Georgia's defense is awful.
That's why, gird your loins, Tennessee -3 is my blood bank guarantee this week.
The Vols are going to play relaxed and deliver a methodical beat down on the Bulldogs, who just aren't that good of a football team right now. In the past three weeks Georgia has beaten Nichols State by two points at home, beaten Mizzou on a last second fourth down touchdown, and gotten behind 45-0 at Ole Miss.
Meanwhile Tennessee got the biggest win in a decade and can take a strangle hold on the SEC East race by beating Georgia in Athens.
The Vols win by double digits and, for once, actually get off to a decent start in a football game. It's never close.
Florida at Vanderbilt +10
This game is going to be incredibly ugly and low scoring, but the over/under is all the way down at 41 and I have some concerns about the defenses scoring in this one.
The Gators win, but it's an ugly game and ten points is way, way too many here.
The Fighting Derek Masons cover.
Texas A&M at South Carolina +17.5
So far Will Muschamp has proven he can make every game his Gamecocks play in incredibly boring. Texas A&M is coming off back-to-back big games, at Auburn and against Arkansas and will play Tennessee next week.
This is the very definition of a trap game for the Aggies.
And you're telling me that a defensive minded head coach has to lose at home by over three scores?
All the money will be on A&M, but I love South Carolina here. The Gamecocks keep it within two touchdowns and you cash a winning ticket.
Mizzou +13 at LSU
What did I tell you when LSU was favored by 14 over Mississippi State two weeks ago? I said that LSU shouldn't be favored by 14 over air. The same is true of 13 points.
This LSU offense just isn't very good and I certainly don't think that Ed Freaking Orgeron is going to make it miraculously better.
In fact, I actually think it's worth sprinkling a bit of money on Mizzou to win here. That's a +400 ticket that carries a nice return.
But even if you don't gamble on the money line, you can still cover this spread with ease by taking Mizzou +13.
There have you have it, boys and girls, we're going 12-0!