Happy Thanksgiving.
Who loves you even if your family doesn't? This guy. Because I'm giving you picks on Tuesday this week because there are so many games that kickoff early this weekend. And I want you to have gambling to make you feel better in the event your family makes you feel awful.
We went 6-4 this past week, but lost the Bowling Green game so that knocked us down to 6-5. That makes us 86-61 so far, or 59% on the year. I want to get us back above 60% before the year is over.
How do we do that?
By going 14-0 this weekend.
Here we go:
Bowling Green -22 at Ball State
I honestly think we're moving the line on Bowling Green games now. As soon as this line went public, I took it at -20 and all of you poured onto Twitter to tell me you were doing the same. It's now at -22 and likely to continue to surge as kickoff nears.
I know last week that Bowling Green screwed us, but they had five turnovers and dropped two touchdown passes. This week they get back on track and dominate. We'll have the cover by halftime.
Remember, all Bowling Green does is cover.
Iowa -1 at Nebraska
This game is going to be tight, there's no doubt. But I was hoping Nebraska would be giving over a field goal. At this spread you're basically talking about a pick'em. And if you're talking about a pick'em, who do you take, the team that is 5-6 or the team that's 11-0? I'm taking the team that has found a way to win all year over the team that has figured out how to lose all year.
Iowa wins a tight one.
Mizzou at Arkansas -14
Mizzou is an awful offensive football team right now and Arkansas is playing fantastic on offense. I think this is a blowout, something like 28-6 Arkansas, but I'm not taking the under because Arkansas's defense has been suspect the past several weeks. So would it shock me if Arkansas wins 41-20? Nope.
So I'm just sticking with Arkansas winning big. (If you want to play this risky, wait and see if you can get the Razorbacks at -13.5. I think there's a decent chance this line is out there on Friday when you wake up from your Thanksgiving hangover.)
Oregon State at Oregon -34.5
Oregon may well be one of the top ten teams in the country right now. Vernon Adams is healthy and the Ducks look like the Oregon of old, just crushing opponents. Pity poor Oregon State, it's going to get ugly in Autzen. I expect the Ducks to have this line nearly covered by halftime.
Baylor -1.5 at TCU
Sometimes lines are simple -- Baylor, no matter who the quarterback is, is better than TCU. I haven't yet seen the over/under in this game yet, but I might be inclined to take it as well.
Regardless, the Bears get it done at TCU.
Ohio State at Michigan -1
I've been saying for two months that Michigan would beat Ohio State to end the season. Now I didn't expect the Wolverines to be favored in this game, but after watching the Ohio State offense this year do you really feel good about them going on the road and playing well in this game? Especially after half the time announced they were leaving after the Michigan State game? I don't. I expect for Ohio State to give Ezekiel Elliott the ball 30 times or more in this game so he doesn't rip Urban Meyer again. I expect Michigan to be ready for this.
Jake Rudock has improved a great deal this year and he'll be the difference because Michigan has a downfield passing threat and Ohio State does not.
Vandy at Tennessee, the under 41
Every Vandy game against an FBS opponent has gone under this season. I told you back in week two to take Vandy on the under all season. Hopefully you guys listened. That trend continues against Tennessee. The Tennessee offense has been crap down the stretch. But the defense has stifled pretty much all opponents. Given that Vandy's offense is awful and Josh Dobbs can't throw the football, both teams will run the ball a ton.
The under is a lock here unless the defenses and special teams start scoring.
Florida State at Florida, the under 43.5
The Florida Gator defense will shut down Dalvin Cook but the Florida Gator offense is so bad everyone, including FSU, will shut it down. So what happens in the Swamp? It's an ugly low scoring game that only people who bet unders will love.
Texas A&M +5.5 at LSU, the over 52.5
I like A&M to keep this game close and I like both teams to score 28 or more. Kyle Allen is back healthy and LSU's offense will have success running against the A&M defense. Plus, you think LSU might want to put some points on John Chavis after the way he left? I love both of these plays, combine them for a nice parlay.
Alabama -13.5 at Auburn
I know, I know, it's a rivalry game and these games are often hard to predict. But here's the deal -- Auburn's offense is still awful. And it's going to look even worse against this Alabama defense. I just don't see any way that Auburn scores more than 14 points in this game. On the flip side I don't see any way that this Auburn defense holds Alabama under 28. So we've got ourselves an easy cover.
I hope Alabama fans enjoy Nick Saban's last regular season game in the SEC.
Oklahoma -6.5 at Oklahoma State
Baylor exposed Oklahoma State last weekend. Assuming Baker Mayfield is healthy enough to play -- which he is -- then Oklahoma just has too many weapons and too good of an offense to lose to Oklahoma State. The Sooners win by double digits and lock up one of the final four playoff spots.
Notre Dame at Stanford, the over 55
Stanford has scored 30 or more points in every game since week one. I think they score 35 or more against Notre Dame on Saturday. That means all I need the Irish to score is 21 or more to hit the over. Sometimes betting over/unders is just way too easy. Get rich, kids.
Ole Miss at Mississippi State, the over 63.5
You have two offenses that are firing on all cylinders rolling into the Egg Bowl in a game that's basically a toss up. So how do you play it? Nervously select one side of what's effectively a coin flip? Hell no. Plan on a lot of points. Neither team will be able to stop the other team and both teams will rush up and down the field with reckless abandon. If you're betting one side or the other, you'll be pulling your hair out over the line swings. But if you've got the over? You'll be kicked back trying to figure out how to spend all the money you're making this weekend. (Hint: your wife will spend in on Christmas presents for people you don't know).
UCLA at USC, the over 62.5
USC's favored to win and the Trojans only hope in this game is that they score a ton of points and outlast UCLA. Good luck with that. This game is zooming past the over.
Honestly, I love all these over/under picks so much you should do what I'm doing, make a parlay just of over/under picks and break Vegas.
Happy Thanksgiving, here comes 14-0.
