What was speculated about for months will become official Wednesday when the Colts officially part ways with Peyton Manning. FOXSports.com has confirmed the future Hall of Famer will be released, ending his storied 14-year tenure with the club.
And so the question: What's next for Manning?
With the rampant media speculation about his future NFL home, it’s easier to list the teams that won’t have interest:
New England, Green Bay, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Dallas, San Diego, San Francisco, Detroit, Minnesota, Chicago, New Orleans, Carolina, St. Louis, Atlanta, Cleveland, Tampa Bay, Buffalo, Oakland, Baltimore, Cincinnati, Houston, Tennessee, Jacksonville …
And, of course, Indianapolis and the New York Giants.
Don’t dismiss the possibility that a dark-horse candidate will surface trying to grab the soon-to-be-former Colt from the above group. For example, all bets are off in San Francisco if the 49ers can’t re-sign Alex Smith before next Tuesday’s start of the free-agent signing period.
There is another group of teams that would welcome a quarterback competition but faces financial restraints or other factors making them unlikely suitors. Such as the Cleveland Browns.
They’re linked more to Green Bay’s Matt Flynn or a trade-up to land Baylor’s Robert Griffin III. Both youngsters are better suited to play in a pure West-Coast-style offense like the one run by head coach Pat Shurmur and new offensive coordinator Brad Childress.
The Browns also should be realistic enough to know that Manning will only consider bona fide Super Bowl contenders at this point in his career. Cleveland is at least a year from being considered as such.
On the flip side, Manning is kryptonite to teams that don’t want to take the financial risk inherent in signing a big-money deal with a 36-year-old player who has undergone four neck surgeries in the past three years.
Timing is a factor, too. Any team wanting to wait for a clean bill of health probably will miss out on vying for other top free-agent quarterbacks.
Bidding for Manning can begin Wednesday, when his Indianapolis release reportedly becomes official.
A leap of faith probably will be required. A similar decision was faced by the Miami Dolphins in 2006 with two other quarterbacks coming off significant injuries. Ex-head coach Nick Saban had to choose between signing Drew Brees (shoulder) in free agency or trading a second-round pick to Minnesota for Daunte Culpepper (knee).
Saban’s decision explains why he’s back in the college ranks.
Overall, there are seven front-runners that appear willing to gamble that Manning can regain his previous form. Here is a breakdown of the pros and cons of those franchises:
Pros: Redskins head coach Mike Shanahan proved he can have success with a quarterback in his mid-30s when John Elway led the 1997 and 1998 Denver Broncos to Super Bowl titles. Shanahan’s offense is quarterback-friendly, and traditionally has featured a strong ground game (rookie running back Roy Helu began emerging late in the 2011 campaign and Tim Hightower will be back off injured reserve).
Shanahan’s offensive system, run by his son Kyle, can be tweaked to take advantage of Manning’s strengths, such as running the no-huddle attack and pre-snap reads before calling plays. The Redskins likely would be amenable to adding Reggie Wayne — one of Manning’s favorite targets — to a mediocre wide-receiver corps. That would help the transition wide receivers will have to make with Manning’s heavy practice demands.
Based on his past history, Redskins owner Dan Snyder probably wouldn’t mind adding a big name to help rejuvenate a franchise that has finished in the NFC East basement for four consecutive seasons.
Cons: Manning never has liked playing against his brother Eli in out-of-conference games against the New York Giants. Facing him twice a year in divisional matchups would be even less appealing.
After spending his entire career playing home games inside a dome, Manning would be moving to an outdoor venue in a cold-weather city. The Redskins would have to convince Manning they are a viable Super Bowl contender — even with all the zeroes that Snyder could add to the paycheck. And like with Cleveland, Washington may consider the chance to groom Griffin after a trade-up with St. Louis for the draft’s No. 2 pick more appealing than acquiring a quarterback entering his sunset.
Pros: If multiple media reports about Dolphins owner Stephen Ross are accurate, Manning can expect a boatload of money being thrown at him. Ross knows that Manning would help sell season tickets for a franchise that has lost roughly 20,000 customers the past decade. Manning, who has a part-time residence in Miami Beach, knows the fall and winter weather in South Florida is far more pleasant than the sites of other interested suitors.
Cons: Miami has hired a new head coach (Joe Philbin) and offensive coordinator (Mike Sherman) with roots in a West Coast-style offense. Matt Flynn, who played under Philbin in Green Bay, would make better sense as a free-agent target. The lousy NFL track record of the bumbling Ross and three straight losing seasons under general manager Jeff Ireland don’t inspire confidence that this team knows how to make the playoffs, let alone win a Super Bowl.
Pros: Arizona was one of the NFL’s best teams in the second half of last season despite the quarterback-juggling between John Skelton and Kevin Kolb. With another year in coordinator Ray Horton’s system, Arizona should field an elite defense in 2012. The Cardinals also play in a domed stadium and have one of the NFL’s premier wide receivers in Larry Fitzgerald, who already is off-field friends with Manning. Cardinals head coach Ken Whisenhunt already had success working with Kurt Warner, another former Super Bowl-winning passer who reinvented himself in the same way Manning aspires.
Cons: If serious about the Cards, Manning would be wise to have assurances that the offensive line, running game and tight end position will be significantly upgraded before signing. The notoriously cheap Cardinals also may not be willing to splurge as much on Manning as other teams.
Skelton shows big-time promise, and Whisenhunt has said he looks forward to having a full offseason to work with Kolb, who had a disappointing, injury-marred debut season after being acquired in a trade with Philadelphia. The signing of Manning would lead to Kolb’s trade or release before he is set to earn a $7 million roster bonus later this month.
Pros: Following literally hundreds of player transactions the past two seasons, general manager John Schneider and head coach Pete Carroll have constructed one of the NFL’s most promising rosters entering the offseason. The only glaring weakness is at quarterback. Tarvaris Jackson is a placeholder until a quality starter can be found.
Cons: As with the Dolphins, Manning would be working with an offensive coordinator (Darrell Bevell) whose roots are planted in a West Coast system. The Seahawks also play outside in what can sometimes be a chilly, rainy climate. Otherwise, there’s lots to like about a team that may be flying under the radar in the Manning sweepstakes.
Pros: The Chiefs field a stout defense and are chock with young skill-position players on offense, such as wide receiver Dwayne Bowe, tight end Tony Moeaki and running backs Jamaal Charles and Dexter McCluster. From his days working around Tom Brady in New England, new offensive coordinator Brian Daboll should know how to run an offense suited for a pocket passer such as Manning.
Manning still likely would receive plenty of autonomy in running the offense from Romeo Crennel. Kansas City’s new head coach incited media cries of illegal player tampering with his effusive praise of Manning at last month’s NFL Scouting Combine.
Cons: Of all the cold-weather cities in the Manning scramble, Kansas City provides the most challenging environment for passing success in late-season games. The offensive line needs bolstering, which means the Chiefs would need to make the kind of heavy investment in free agency that general manager Scott Pioli has resisted during his previous three years in Kansas City.
Pros: Rather than competing against Rex Ryan, Manning would get to play under one of the NFL’s sharpest defensive minds. The Jets are known for welcoming veterans connected with other teams. Who’d have thought Brett Favre, LaDainian Tomlinson and Jason Taylor would ever wear kelly green late in their careers? The Jets are always aggressive in roster upgrades under general manager Mike Tannenbaum. Off the field, Peyton could always bunk at his brother Eli’s house to save on rent.
Cons: The Jets have shown no inclination that they are heavily invested in the Manning sweepstakes. New York is expected to pursue a less costly option, such as Miami’s Chad Henne or Oakland’s Jason Campbell, to push underachieving starter Mark Sanchez. Manning also would note that the Jets regressed in 2011 and seem eager to return to a run-heavy offense under new offensive coordinator Tony Sparano.
It’s hard to envision Manning as a 30-handoff-per-game quarterback. He also may not want the constant tabloid comparisons to Eli that would occur if he played in the same massive media market.
Pros: Manning would love working with head coach John Fox and Elway, who is entering his second year as Denver’s executive vice president. Fox and Elway have shown the wisdom to take advantage of the strengths provided by other veteran acquisitions such as safety Brian Dawkins and running back Willis McGahee.
Tim Tebow is set to enter the 2012 campaign as Denver’s starter, but his inconsistent play doesn’t guarantee he will finish the season in the same role.
Cons: The Broncos want to push Tebow with a veteran but probably not with someone who casts such a large shadow as Manning. The $20 million-plus Denver is expected to have in salary-cap space has spurred some of the public Manning conversation. It’s assuredly wishful thinking. Elway should know the team must dedicate the available cap room to upgrading the defense, especially at defensive tackle and the secondary.
