Before the NFL Draft started last night, we were all guessing.
Today, we're REALLY guessing. And here are my best guesses -- with some long-winded rants and cockamamie theories mixed in -- on how the second and third rounds might go for the Browns and Bengals tonight.
1. The Bengals are probably going to take a quarterback and are two picks away from having the chance to select between Ryan Mallett and Andy Dalton. It's easy to assume that last night's early and surprising run on quarterbacks changed things on how teams will proceed with the remaining quarterbacks, and a report that surfaced this morning said the Bengals tried to trade for the final pick of the first round to get Dalton. The Bengals will either have to try to trade again or hope the Bills, who pick directly in front of them at No. 34, either don't take a QB or don't take the one the Bengals really want. I also think the Bengals might sit tight, take a defensive tackle like Marvin Austin (a first-round talent with Bengals-type baggage) and then address the QB need later with Ricky Stanzi or Colin Kaepernick. But again, at this point we're all just guessing.
2. If Jake Locker, who's basically a fullback playing quarterback, can go No. 8 and Christian Ponder can go No. 12, Mike Holmgren should absolutely be arrested on felony theft charges for getting Colt McCoy at No. 85 last year. That story teaches us a few lessons, including one about how pre-draft injuries and measurables, especially for quarterbacks, affect teams' thinking and can affect common sense, too. McCoy still has to get better and prove he can make all the throws and be The Guy, but the things he brings to the table seem to be much surer things than what those guys have. The Browns have a solid O-line and running game in place to help McCoy and will now, at some point, go about getting him some better weapons. That's also a long-winded way of saying now that A.J. Green is in place, if I was the Bengals I'd take my chances with the big-armed guy in Mallett.
2. Tonight starts with Bill Belichick and the Patriots holding the first pick (33 overall) and, more than likely, shopping it to the highest bidder. If they stay put it presumably would be to add a pass-rusher, but knowing Belichick he'll move it and try to add a third first-rounder for next year. See how much easier this drafting stuff is when you're already a good team? The Browns could also be targeting Arizona's Brooks Reed or Pitt's Jabaal Sheard (or even Da'Quan Bowers, whose injury is obviously a concern) with their pick at No. 37, but it's unclear how the Browns see those guys fitting into their scheme. The draft, especially in the first two rounds with teams that have multiple holes, is so much more about fit than about rankings or perceived needs. Truth is neither the Bengals nor the Browns could go wrong with a front seven player who brings athleticism and fits each team's respective scheme. And looking at what's available, I would not be surprised to see the Browns willing to trade down 5-10 spots, add a pick or two for doing so, and go from there. As is they hold picks 37 and 59 thanks to last night's trade with Atlanta. They gave up their third-rounder to move up and get Taylor.
4. The Browns have to get a speed receiver, but they don't have to get one right away. They know Mohammed Massaquoi and Brian Robiskie aren't going to stretch many defenses, but they genuinely think both have their best football in front of them. They have free agency to get a veteran and upgrade via that route. And they have a whole draft left and a bunch of history that says good (and even great) receivers can be found in the middle and late rounds. I would not be mad if they take Jerrel Jernigan at 37 because I'm a big fan, but I expect the play there to be another trade down (40 percent), a pass-rusher (25 percent), a cornerback (25 percent) or Notre Dame TE Kyle Rudolph (10 percent), a guy who's built for the West Coast Offense and a guy who would do as much to instantly upgrade the passing game as much as anybody still there. Folks, Ben Watson is not the long-term answer and Evan Moore is a really tall wide receiver who, like Massaqoui and Robiskie, would instantly become more dangerous with Rudolph on the field. The Browns have options and a big-picture mindset, and both of those are good things. Taking a shot on Maryland speedster Torrey Smith at 59 would be a popular pick as well.
5. I'll be back on Twitter this evening firing away with more thoughts, opinions, guesses and analysis. Follow me @FSOhioZJackson. Remember, the second round starts at 6 p.m. ET and both the Browns and Bengals are due to make picks right away. Will somebody take a shot on Bowers? Tom Heckert's history says he'll go receiver or defensive back right away, but will that hold true? In the words of the immortally overrated Bart Scott, "can't wait" to find out.
