One thing the NFL has gotten right the past few years is scheduling divisional games for the final two weeks of the season.
It gives us a matchup like Sunday night's in Green Bay, where the winner of the Packers-Vikings tilt (both of which are 10-5) takes the division -- and gets to host at least one more game this season -- while the loser has to go on the road for the playoffs. It isn't exactly win or go home, but there are definite consequences and enough of them to make it the prime-time game and league season finale.
The Packers enter having won three of their last four games, but clearly the fan base isn't overly confident, especially after seeing Green Bay get bludgeoned in Arizona last weekend.
"I have faith in the football team regardless of what happened (in Arizona)," head coach Mike McCarthy said earlier this week.
The Packers will need more than faith. Some points would help. That seems like a tough task against a Minnesota defense which is tied for the NFL lead with 11 games of allowing 20 or fewer points, but Green Bay hung 30 on the Vikings last month.
An early January game at Lambeau with playoff implications on the line? Should be a fun one, and perhaps a throwback to the smashmouth days of old.
Here's a closer look at Sunday's matchup:
3 THINGS TO WATCH
-- Can Green Bay get its running game going, often and early? Eddie Lacy rushed for 100 yards in the first meeting between these two teams. Hitting 100 yards certainly is a key. When Minnesota allows more than 100 yards per game, Minnesota is 2-4. When allowing fewer than 100 yards, the Vikings are 8-1. With a cold day ahead, it might be a day to pound the rock anyway. Look for the Packers to set the tone with Lacy and/or James Starks.
-- Aaron Rodgers vs. Teddy Bridgewater. Rodgers has been in this situation before. In fact, this is the third straight season Green Bay's Week 17 game will decide the NFC North winner. Bridgewater has not. However, Bridgewater has vastly outperformed Rodgers since their last meeting (which we've detailed here).
-- Will this be a game of field position? Temperatures are expected to get as low as the teens on Sunday night, which could lend itself to a low-scoring game. Teams will need to make the most of their opportunities -- something Green Bay has not done lately, especially on third downs (the Packers are 27th in the NFL in third-down conversions). In the last five games, the Packers have converted over 31 percent of their third downs just once -- against Dallas, which coincidentally was an easy win. The other games have not been so easy -- 5 of 17 at Arizona, 4 of 13 at Oakland, 3 of 12 at Detroit and 3 of 11 vs. Chicago. Even the last time against Minnesota, the Packers were just 6 of 16 (37.5 percent). On the flip side, Minnesota's punt game has struggled -- the Vikings are 31st in gross punt average and 28th in net -- which could set up Green Bay with good field position. Of course, Minnesota's Cordarrelle Patterson averages 30.6 yards per kick return (also, Green Bay is 22nd in opponent kick return average), which could set up the Vikings nicely. Containing Patterson -- hello, touchbacks -- will be key.
2 THINGS TO REMEMBER
-- Win or lose, Green Bay will be playing next week in the postseason. Here's the scenarios: If the Packers lose, they will be the No. 5 seed and travel to Washington, which hasn't beaten a team with a winning record this season. If Green Bay wins, it will be the No. 3 seed and host the No. 6 seed, which could mean a rematch with the Vikings. However, if Seattle loses to Arizona, then the Seahawks would be the No. 6 seed. Seattle happens to play Arizona, which is trying to gain the No. 1 overall seed. The Cardinals would be thwarted with a loss to the Seahawks or a Carolina win. However, the Panthers play Tampa Bay at the same time as the Arizona-Seattle game. Pick your poison.
-- As bad as things have gone for Green Bay lately, Minnesota hasn't won at Lambeau Field since 2009. Green Bay is 10-1-1 against the Vikings over the last 12 games, including 5-0-1 at home (and a tie is just as good as a win for the Packers). And if Aaron Rodgers wants to snap out of his funk, Minnesota might just be the team to do it against. Rodgers has highest passer rating against the Vikings than any other (min. 100 attempts), 115.7. He's thrown 34 touchdowns to just four interceptions against Minnesota. Perhaps playing the Vikings will snap Rodgers back into form.
1 KEY MATCHUP
Adrian Peterson vs. Packers defense
This much is clear about the Vikings: when Peterson runs well, they have a better chance of winning. Not only does it mean he's being productive, but it also opens things up for quarterback Teddy Bridgewater. But this is also clear: when Minnesota can't run the ball, it doesn't win. Five times this season the Vikings have rushed for under 100 yards and Minnesota has lost four of those (including the first matchup against Green Bay). The lone win was a 16-10 victory over Kansas City, which ran for fewer yards than the Vikings that day (84 to 57). It will be time for the Packers' rush defense, which has allowed 121, 120 and 171 rush yards in the last three weeks and is ranked 21st in the NFL, to step up.
Follow Dave Heller on Twitter
