Per legend -- or Wikipedia, to be more forthcoming as to this scribe's research tactics -- ancient Babylonians used to make promises to their gods at the start of the year to make amends for their wrongdoings. Now we're all stuck vowing to lose weight, save money and volunteer in making New Year's resolutions and MLB teams aren't immune to the annual call for rebirth.
After a season in which the Braves went 27-40 after the All-Star Break, including 7-18 in September, there are needs for promises of self-improvement. Here are five major ones for 2015:
Despite getting 29 home runs out of Justin Upton and 22 via Evan Gattis, the Braves were tied for 22nd in the majors with 123 in all as their formula for winning fall apart.
It was simple: ride pitching and the long ball. It worked in 2013 in the form of a runaway National League East title, but the problem last year was that the pitching was there and the long ball was not.
With Upton since traded to the Padres and Jason Heyward, who had 11 a year ago now with the Cardinals, could Atlanta be in for even more of a power outage in '15?
In taking a stab at the 25-man roster based on current parts, let's go into this with the expectation of an Opening Day collection of Freddie Freeman, Alberto Callaspo, Andrelton Simmons, Chris Johnson, Christian Bethancourt, Gattis, B.J. Upton and Nick Markakis in the starting lineup. The bench would then consist of a mix of Phil Gosselin, A.J. Pierzynski, Joey Terdoslavich, Jose Constanza, Kyle Kubitza, Jace Petereson, Elmer Reyes, Zoilo Almonte and Tyler Pastornicky and franchise minor league Player of the Year Jose Peraza could also challenge for one of those spots.
If we take the 162-game average of all those players (keep in mind that Bethancourt, Terdoslavich and Peraza don't have a major league homer), we'd be looking at 148 combined HRs. That figure would have been 12th in the majors a year ago.
Now is that realistic? Upton hasn't come close to his average of 18 since putting on a Braves uniform and Pierzynski may not get enough chances for his own figure of 15.
With Freeman and Gattis the only players currently on the roster who have hit more than 20 home runs in the past two seasons, equaling last year's 123 seems difficult.
But keep this in mind: of the seven teams that finished with less HRs than the Braves last year, two (the Cardinals and Royals) made the playoffs. What does that have to do with this Atlanta team?
Maybe nothing or maybe everything. With the addition of hitting coach Kevin Seitzer, the Braves could be moving toward more of a small-ball mentality, one that could make the lack of a murder's row of power hitters an afterthought. It's a move that may come more from need than design, but as presently constituted, that appears to be the team John Hart and the Atlanta brass are putting on the field this spring.
On the heels of a debut season in Atlanta in which he finished second in the National League with a .321 average, Chris Johnson was given a three-year, $23.5 million extension.
But those elevated expectations were followed by Johnson hitting .263/.292/.361 and his strikeouts climbed from 116 in '13 to 159. The Braves proceeded to include Johnson in trade talks with Justin Upton (both of whom were acquired by the Braves from the Diamondbacks prior to '13).
While his '14 numbers may have been more in line with what Johnson was doing in his first three full seasons in the majors before coming to Atlanta (he hit .279/.318/.437 with the Astros and Arizona), there were still signs amid last season's setback that he's more the player that challenged for a batting title than the one who struggled in '14.
Two years ago Johnson set a franchise record with an absurd .394 BABIP, a number that was expected to regress last season, which it did, but only to .345. That figure was still 18th among all qualified players.
Add in that his line drive rate of 26.8 wasn't far below '13's 27.0 and the makeup of the same player is still there. Where Johnson's difference lied was in his plate discipline
We'll get into similar lines of thinking with Andrelton Simmons shortly, but Johnson swung at 44.3 percent of pitches out of the zone last year, something he did just 39.4 percent in '13. He also made contact on those pitches nearly five percent less, hence his elevated strikeout numbers.
The best thing the Braves may be able to do for Johnson is keeping him in the bottom part of the order. In '13 he hit .350 in sixth and .405 in seventh, but last year rose as high as fourth (.209) and also struggled in fifth (.253). But in sixth he was still at .286.
He admitted at times last year he tried to do too much. Putting him in positions where he isn't in as much pressure to be run-producer can set the stage for the Braves to see a version of Johnson much more in line with 2013's.
In 2013, Andrelton Simmons teased that he could be the complete package at shortstop for the Braves, hitting .333/.382/.633 with a pair of home runs in 30 at-bats in the World Baseball Classic, then he proceeded to hit a career-high 17 HRs in his first full major league season.
It was with that season in mind that Atlanta locked Simmons up to a seven-year, $58 million extension with the belief that his offense was just rounding into form.
But '14 amounted to a step back in all phases as Simmons hit .244/.286/.331 (all career lows), saw his extra-base hits drop to seven homers, four triples and 18 doubles and he had five more strikeouts (60) than he had in 82 more plate appearances the previous season.
With the Braves knowing what they have in Freddie Freeman, the jury still out on Johnson and question marks at second base (Callaspo, Gosselin and Peraza are all options), Simmons may be the key to the infield offensively.
The basic explanation for Simmons' '14 slide was that, despite his maintaining a low strikeout rate, it came with him swinging at more pitches outside the zone.
In '13 he tried for 29.1 percent out of the zone and made contact on 76.9 percent of those pitches, but in '14, those numbers sat at 30.2 (O-Swing%) and 78.4 (O-Contact%). That doesn't seem like much, but when you also consider he had an elevated ground ball rate this past season (52.4 after 42.4 in '13), Simmons wasn't doing himself any favors by swinging at bad pitches, hence him hitting into nine more double plays (25) than he did in '13.
Seitzer, who preaches a high-contact approach, could be the remedy and force Simmons to use the whole field. He may not replicate the power numbers of his sophomore season, but it could make for a strong marriage given Simmons' baseline plate discipline.
Maybe this is the Braves putting their erstwhile primary catcher into a position where, a la self-actualization, he will be motivated to realize his full potential as a player by logging massive innings in left field. Either that or, as manager Fredi Gonzalez has said regarding Gattis in the defensive grass "You don't know if the ball is going to be hit to him, but you know he's going to get 3-4 at-bats."
With the signing of A.J. Pierzynski, it sets the stage for an approach in let field of wanting the potential for 30 home runs and giving up something on the defensive side to get it, which is what the numbers tell us can be expected.
Gattis hasn't played in the outfield since the 2013 Division Series against the Dodgers and in 342 1/3 innings that year had minus-10 defensive runs saved and a UZR/150 of minus-24.1.
Justin Upton wasn't exactly a sabermetricians' dream on D, with a minus-7.6 and minus-1.1 UZR/150 in '14 and he was somehow named a Gold Glove finalist. But his track record shows us Gattis will be a step back, one that hasn't played the position in 108 games.
He may well lead the Braves in home runs and has a chance to become the franchise's first left fielder to hit 30 or more since Ryan Klesko had 34 in 1996. The question though, is with a projected 66 wRC (per Steamer), can he outweigh another season of double digits into the negative in DRS?
It's a reality Gonzalez and Co. are likely going to have to embrace unless another maneuver sees the expected LF leaving Atlanta.
What we know about the pitching staff is pretty cheery no matter how you're reading the Braves' offseason moves. A top four of Julio Teheran, Alex Wood, Mike Minor and Shelby Miller are potent and young as all are under 26.
The problem though, is where the rotation goes for the No. 5 spot.
It's really been an issue since Tim Hudson's season-ending injury on July 24, 2013, a move that forced Beachy to return early, only to get set back down and then saw Kameron Loe, David Hale and Freddy Garcia all make starts.
A year ago, the Atlanta brain trust, forced into it by back-to-back spring training injuries to Brandon Beachy and Kris Medlen, signed Aaron Harang and it worked marvelously. Only five players -- Johnny Cueto, Felix Hernandez, Jon Lester, Corey Kluber and Sonny Gray -- had more quality starts than Harang's 25 and he did it at the bargain of $1 million.
There's the possibilities that the Braves could re-sign Harang, who remains available, on a multi-year deal, Hale gets another look or Roger McDowell tries to work his magic with another veteran, Chien-Ming Wang, who was signed to a minor league deal in November.
But paramount for the Braves is finding a solution beyond one season. With the young talent that they possess in the rotation, a veteran like Harang/Wang/someone else could make sense. So too would be finding what they have in Hale, who has a 2.05 ERA in eight career starts.
Follow Cory McCartney on Twitter @coryjmccartney
