OK, let’s get one thing straight about the NBA Draft lottery: It’s exactly what it’s called. It’s a lottery. It’s ping-pong balls in a hopper, fans crossing their fingers and team personnel clinging to good-luck charms.
We can't accurately predict who will win, but we can get a decent idea. After all, the league went from a free-for-all in 1986 to a weighted system four years later. That system was designed to give the advantage to the teams that finished with the worst records. Makes sense, and overall, it's worked.
At least, it's seemed to benefit the three worst teams entering the lottery, as they've won a combined 12 times in 22 years. So yes, there is some logic, there is some predictability.
Unless, of course, you're a conspiracy theorist.
If you believe the whole thing is rigged, well, you’ll probably take the night off and just assume the Nets will be the 2012 lottery champs. They are, after all, moving to Brooklyn. And they do lose their pick to Portland if it doesn’t fall in the top three.
In order for that happen, the Nets will have to move up — as they enter the lottery in the No. 6 slot. That means they only have a 7.5 percent chance of winning the thing. Or so we’re told.
Then again, Cleveland won it from the No. 8 slot (3.5 percent chance) last season. So again, this makes no sense. And guess what? It’s not really supposed to.
Anyway, before I boggle your mind any further, here’s a little look at which teams enter the lottery with which slot, and which slots have won how many times since 1990 — when the lottery started determining the order of the first three picks only.
Slot 1 – Charlotte Bobcats (25 percent chance of winning)
Slot 1 has won the lottery three times since 1990.
Slot 2 – Washington Wizards (19.9 percent chance of winning)
Slot 2 has won the lottery four times since 1990.
Slot 3 – Cleveland Cavaliers (13.8 percent chance of winning)
Slot 3 has won the lottery five times since 1990.
Slot 4 – New Orleans Hornets (13.7 percent chance of winning)
Slot 4 has not won the lottery since 1990.
Slot 5 – Sacramento Kings (7.6 percent chance of winning)
Slot 5 has won the lottery five times since 1990.
*Slot 6 – Brooklyn Nets (7.5 percent chance of winning)
Slot 6 has won the lottery twice since 1990.
Slot 7 – Golden State Warriors (3.6 percent chance of winning)
Slot 7 has won the lottery once since 1990 (2000).
Slot 8 – Toronto Raptors (3.5 percent chance of winning)
Slot 8 has won the lottery once since 1990 (2008).
Slot 9 – Detroit Pistons (1.7 percent chance of winning)
Slot 9 has won the lottery once since 1990 (2008).
**Slot 10 – New Orleans Hornets (1.1 percent chance of winning)
Slot 10 has never won the lottery.
Slot 11 – Portland Trail Blazers (0.8 percent chance of winning)
Slot 11 has won the lottery once since 1990 (1993).
Slot 12 – Milwaukee Bucks (0.7 percent chance of winning)
Slot 12 has never won the lottery.
Slot 13 – Phoenix Suns (0.6 percent chance of winning)
Slot 13 has never won the lottery.
Slot 14 – Houston Rockets (0.5 percent chance of winning)
Slot 14 has never won the lottery.
*Pick goes to Portland Trail Blazers unless it falls within top three selections.
** Via Minnesota Timberwolves.
Follow Sam Amico on Twitter @SamAmicoFSO
