MILWAUKEE — There are three things we like to think we know about this year's NBA draft.
No. 1: This is one of the deepest drafts in the past five years and maybe in the past 10. That doesn't necessarily mean that the 2012 draft will be on par with 2003 — which could eventually yield at least four Hall of Famers — but it's pretty darn good.
No. 2: The No. 1 pick in this year's draft will undoubtedly be Kentucky's Anthony Davis.
No. 3: We don't really know anything after that.
It's true, the outlook of this year's draft is considerably murkier than most of the drafts in recent memory. There's little consensus within the top five this season, let alone after that.
And smack dab in that murky middle sits Milwaukee, now bringing up the rear in the lottery after a Wednesday afternoon trade sent the No. 12 pick, Jon Leuer, Jon Brockman, and Shaun Livingston to Houston for center Samuel Dalembert, the No. 14 pick, cash and a future second-rounder.
The trade itself sheds light on how unquestionably hazy even the most certain things are in this draft. Just a few days ago, general manager John Hammond said he was "hopeful" the Bucks wouldn't again make a trade before the draft. Alas, two days later, a trade has revived the mystery of the Bucks' 2012 selection.
A spot at the end of the lottery can only be described as certifiable draft limbo, and moving down a couple spots has only increased that degree of uncertainty. Certainly, there are prospects available who can help out Milwaukee's rotation, but is a simple rotation player enough to push the Bucks past the mediocrity they've been basking in for the past few years?
Dalembert will certainly help that equation, providing the rim-protecting post presence Milwaukee desperately needed all of last season. It seems that the addition of Dalembert would indicate that the Bucks might take their first-round pick in a different direction — out of the post — something Hammond said was a possibility even before the trade.
But now, with the center problem at least partially solved, the Bucks can follow through on something Hammond talked about during one of the team's final draft workouts: They can draft for talent, without any overriding concern of grabbing a big man clogging their judgment.
"The most important thing is that you're drafting talent," Hammond said Monday. "At the end of the day, when we look at 12 (now 14), it's going to be, ‘Who is the best player on the board?' We're not going to just be narrow and say we have to go to a certain position."
That means one of the draft's many talented wings will most definitely be in play, something the Bucks had likely foreseen before bringing in Washington's Terrence Ross and Connecticut's Jeremy Lamb for the team's final workout Tuesday morning. Both are athletically gifted guards who can provide the size Milwaukee desperately needs in the backcourt. Either would make sense as the Bucks' No. 14 pick. Either could become a suitable replacement if Monta Ellis or Brandon Jennings were to no longer be with Milwaukee in the next few years.
But considering how the NBA draft has a way of denying even the most reasonable scenarios and draft-day logic, there's absolutely no guarantee that's the direction Milwaukee will go in. Remember, drafting for talent could still mean a guy like North Carolina's Tyler Zeller or even his teammate John Henson ends up a Buck — both of them have been linked to the Bucks on prior occasions and both could make sense as players to learn behind a rim protector like Dalembert.
The importance of hitting on this pick is — while likely a bit unfair — tangible at this point. The Bucks can't spend much more time in NBA limbo. And with a potential big-time free agent (Jennings) and promises for a new arena in the balance, the pressure may only be rising.
So what's the best way to alleviate that pressure Thursday night?
The first step is easy and has already been discussed in principle: Draft the most talented player available. If someone falls who was expected to go in the top 10, take him. Don't hesitate. Take him. Immediately.
The second step is a little less clear. At the No. 14 pick, there will be a wide range of high-upside, high-risk players and a handful of proven commodities with questions about their ceiling — like Zeller. But again, this is no time to settle on someone whose ceiling involves playing 20 minutes per game on a playoff team (sorry, Tyler). The Bucks' pick should be someone who could potentially sneak into an All-Star Game at some point, a guy they feel has the most upside to affect their chances of making it to the playoffs. They need to make a splash, not cause a few ripples.
And sure, with that kind of player often comes a serious amount of unpredictability. But keeping up the status quo might not be much worse for the Bucks than failing spectacularly at this point. After all, the Cleveland Cavaliers and New Orleans Hornets, soon after unloading superstars, are on their way to putting together impressive young rosters.
So who should be on Milwaukee's radar? The pick likely will come down to one of five guys: Henson, Lamb, Ross, Illinois center Meyers Leonard and Kentucky forward Terrence Jones.
It's certain at this point that at least two of those players (and quite likely three) will be gone, with Henson and Leonard — due to a premium on big men — the most likely to be picked prior to No. 14.
From there, it's all about fit. How would Ross or Lamb mesh in Milwaukee's backcourt? Could Terrence Jones provide an option at forward if the Bucks are unable to re-sign Ersan Ilyasova?
Lamb and Jones are both prospects that, at one point or another, were considered to have top-five potential. Both still have that ability and high ceiling. And despite some concern as to why they would have dropped to the Bucks' spot at No. 14, either could represent the beginning of a bigger, tougher and more talented Bucks team.
Lamb is not a No. 1 scorer in most offenses. He doesn't have the killer instinct to hit the last shot, and that fact has painted him as a player lacking intensity, especially through Connecticut's struggles last season. But with a stellar backcourt to pair him with, he could flourish in Milwaukee. There isn't a silkier shooter — besides maybe Florida's Bradley Beal — in the entire draft.
And Jones, a proven winner at Kentucky, was thought by some to be in contention as a No. 1 pick when he was a freshman for the Wildcats. He struggled at times with motivation. But by the end of his sophomore season, there were few scarier players around the basket in college basketball than Terrence Jones. And with a stronger, more athletic, and more defensive presence around the hoop — especially in the case of Ilyasova leaving — the Bucks won't be pushed around down low.
Predictions are futile at this point -- we know barely anything about what's going to unfold on Thursday night at the Prudential Center.
But if there's one thing you should expect to see out of the Bucks at No. 14 — if all goes well — is a whole lot of talent and whole lot of upside. From there, well, it's anyone's guess.
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