History will be made today in Dallas when the sport we all love crowns the first college football playoff champion. While that's well and good for most of the fans across the country, there's another city that's benefitted immensely from 1 true title: Las Vegas. Sports book directors expect the title game to provide major betting handle when one of the most heavily bet public teams of the last few years, Oregon, tests their mettle against a true college football blueblood in Ohio State.
Betting action on this game started fast and furious on January 1. Sharp money from the professionals hit the market immediately driving the game from 7 all the way down to 4.5 at some shops late last week. However over the last 24 hours with the public starting to put their dollars into play the line has steadily ticked back to 6 or 6.5 at most sports books. Every betting house is brimming with excitement for the kind of betting handle the championship should end up generating. Unfortunately we're not talking Superbowl type numbers (or anything all that close) yet veteran bookmaker Nick Bogdanovich believed the game could drive a number roughly 20% of Superbowl betting handle at his William Hill sportsbooks. Bogdanovich isn't alone in being excited about what the title game could mean to Vegas books.
"I thought the hype, buzz, atmosphere and handle were all phenomenal (for the semifinals). Having two bowl games outside of the title game that meant something created a new interest amongst the fans and bettors. It was great having the four teams and two playoff games. Obviously from a book standpoint I can easily make a case for this format to be expanded in the coming years," said Chuck Esposito, Race and Sportsbook director for Station Casinos.
Esposito and Bogdanovich's optimism for tonight's title game is more than substantiated by the outstanding ratings from the semis that should carry into the championship. Both teams took different paths to arrive at this final destination. Oregon remained among the other favorites, even after the loss to Arizona, but Ohio St's improbable path could prove costly for a major player in the offshore market.
"There was liability earlier this season and there still is on Ohio State in our futures market. We jumped the Buckeyes from 12-1 as high as 33-1 back on August 19th with the news of Braxton Miller's season ending injury. Ohio St winning the title would mean a loss in our futures pool whereas Oregon victory would mean a small win," marketing director of www.betonline.ag Dave Mason told me.
The irony here is that Mason's shop didn't even offer the highest number on Ohio State this season. Esposito revealed his casinos had the Buckeyes listed at 50-1 early in the year, the exact same price Jay Kornegay, VP of Race and Sports for the Westgate Superbook, used after the Miller injury. Neither compared to the gaudy 100-1 that players could have found at William Hill but fortunately for the trio of Vegas operators they indicated there was no major loss looming if OSU wins the title.
Big picture full season sportsbook operations are one thing... but with one game left, I know the main intrigue for OKTC readers relates to the betting trends emerging on tonight's game. Mason supported what most casual gamblers gleaned from the betting market line movement: sharp money poured in on Ohio St at +7 no matter the juice. As the number trended lower, that's where the public money flooded the market looking to back the high powered Ducks. Oregon enters the game minus 3 major playmakers on the offensive side in Carrington, Allen, and Brown who contributed 103 receptions and 1800+ receiving yards, nearly 44% of Mariota's total passing yards, so far this season.
"The championship game is going to be a reflection of the Super Bowl. We'll need Oregon to win but not cover," Kornegay added. For those new to betting, the reason this trend emerges is the public bettors end up laying the points with Oregon if they want to back the favorite whereas casual dog bettors forego the points instead backing Ohio St at roughly 2-1. Mason went on to add that 82% of all moneyline bets being placed at his shop were on the underdog with the over also becoming a major sweat for the house given 85% of all total bets banking on a shootout.
Like most marquee sporting events, if just betting side or total isn't enough to whet that gambling appetite there will be a bevy of prop bets available at most shops as well. You can see those here.
"Looking at the title game; you can clearly make a case for both teams. The speed, up-tempo style, leadership ability of Mariota, and something to prove attitude all point to the Ducks. While Urban Meyer's experience in big games, his record as an underdog in his career of 13-2 SU, his record of 34-9 with over a week to prepare, and the next man up approach for the Buckeyes makes this a great match-up," added Esposito.
I can't fault Esposito for not offering a pick on the game. After all, his primary responsibility on game day is to root on the side and total the house needs to turn a profit. However here at Outkick no one's ever accused of us being impartial and it's time to reveal the answer to the most important question...
THE PICK:
There are so many angles to attack in a game of this magnitude. Coaching, quarterback play, preparation, line value, etc the list goes on if we decided to let it. I'll throw a lot of that out the window given somewhat clear edges developed in each department for me. Instead (and for the interest of brevity) I'll look to attack the number like any good gambler should. Books needed to make Oregon -7 for this game (even -7.5 at some spots) after what the nation saw on January 1. Oregon torched the defending national champion 59-20 but a deeper dive into the boxscore shows only a +111 yard differential which is inconsistent with the final margin of victory. The Ducks also benefited from 5 FSU turnovers turning a close game at the half into an absolute bloodbath. Ohio St was +130 against Alabama yet in the eyes of the casual fan their 42-35 victory was a narrow escape. This is what has created value for the title game if you're looking to back the Buckeyes. On the season Ohio State outgained opponents by 176 yards per game on average compared to Oregon's 116 yard edge. For me I'm making this game about the coach with a track record in big games looking to add another national title to his list of career achievements. Mariota is one hell of a talent but I think lack of weapons finally catches up to him against Ohio St, meaning the team everyone wrote off for dead (even their own fans) way back in September not only covers but wins this game outright.
VERDICT: Ohio St +6.5
