Miami already owns a victory at Duke this season, and if the Hurricanes can knock off North Carolina on Wednesday night, its position to receive an at-large invitation to the NCAA Tournament will strengthen considerably.
UNC, however, should provide the Canes with their stiffest test of the season, more so than in the teams’ first meeting in Chapel Hill on Jan. 10 and more than when the Canes won at Cameron Indoor Stadium 10 days ago.
“Carolina is so big and they can miss shots and (have) that still be good offense for them. Just like the other day, they can crash the offensive boards and turn a miss into a make in a split second,” Miami coach Jim Larranaga said. “We’re going to have to take care of the ball better. We turned it over more than we should have up at their place. So if we can reduce our turnovers and rebound a little bit better hopefully it will make for a more competitive game.”
UNC won that game 73-56 and won the rebounding battle by 17, and while it may have blown a 10-point lead with two-plus minutes remaining to the Blue Devils last Wednesday, the Tar Heels are still playing excellent basketball. They followed that difficult defeat with a 70-52 win over nationally-ranked Virginia, which offered the ultimate test to UNC coming off the loss to Duke.
Virginia challenged Carolina more than just physically, but also its focus and psyche, given how the Cavaliers prefer to play. UNC passed with flying colors.
For Miami (15-8, 6-4 ACC), the challenge is to keep UNC senior center Tyler Zeller from dominating the game. Zeller has emerged as the leading candidate for ACC Player of the Year and it’s not just because of his offense and rebounding. He’s an excellent defensive player who probably won’t go for Miami big man Reggie Johnson’s constant array of fakes on the lower blocks.
Duke center Mason Plumlee said defending Johnson is tricky because it’s hard to anticipate when he may shoot because he rarely leaves his feet on post moves.
“He’s really hard to predict,” The burly 6-foot-10 Plumlee said. “You just have to anticipate, and he’s such a smart player and feels the defender so well, that’s not easy, either.”
Zeller, however, is 7-feet tall and doesn’t need to leave his feet to have an impact on defense. Then add fellow big John Henson, who at 6-11 has a wingspan of 7-4 and can help out after defending Kenny Kadji when Johnson gets off looks.
Perhaps more important for Miami is what its guards do. Malcolm Grant and Durand Scott combined to convert just 6 of 20 shots from the field, including 0-for-7 from 3-point range in the January meeting between the teams. If they can get into the teeth of UNC’s defense and create some more open perimeter looks, and of course knock down some of those shots, the Canes’ chances of securing an upset are significantly increased.
And a victory likely means a trip to the NCAA Tournament so long as Miami takes care of its other business.
It should take three of its last five games, at home vs. Wake Forest, at Maryland and at home vs. Boston College to close the regular season. A visit from rival Florida State and a trip to N.C. State are toss-ups.
The Hurricanes began the week ranked No. 35 in the official Ratings Percentage Index (RPI) with that win over No. 2 (RPI) Duke looming large. UNC (21-4, 8-2) checks in this week at No. 8, and it likely will rise after it closes out the toughest portion of its schedule in a few weeks.
Also, Miami may get a slight beneficial consideration from the committee given that its four nonconference losses all came before Reggie Johnson returned to the lineup after a knee injury kept him out for nearly two months.
The overtime loss at Mississippi is the one that most likely would have been avoided had Johnson been healthy and available. Eleven-point losses at West Virginia and Purdue might be viewed differently, as well.
But Miami won’t need any special consideration if it can beat the Tar Heels. Few teams anywhere will have wins over a pair of blue bloods like the Devils and Heels, and that should be enough come Selection Sunday.
