The Cubs are a running team, now. Wasn't always that way. Wasn't that way even one season ago. One season ago, the Cubs finished with just 65 stolen bases, seventh-fewest in the majors. This year, they already have 25, second-most in the majors. If you fold unsuccessful steals into the mix, last year the Cubs were the worst stealing team in baseball. So far this year, fourth-best. No one ever wins the World Series because of the running game, but improvements are improvements, and this is a legitimate change.
And, well, this year's Cubs have a bunch of new players. They also have a new manager, so maybe it's not the most surprising thing in the world that they've become more aggressive with their legs. Joe Maddon liked to put the game in motion in Tampa Bay, and in spring training with Chicago he made baserunning a priority. On the other hand, here's Anthony Rizzo, also from spring training:
"We don't steal much on this team anyway."
Rizzo, perhaps, wasn't yet used to playing with Dexter Fowler. Fowler's already stolen six bags. That's good enough to tie him for eighth in the majors. But let's keep that figure in mind. As of this writing, 15 players have stolen at least six bases. That's a somewhat arbitrary line, but I chose it for a reason. Here are the 15:
It's worth going over the stolen-base history of these guys. Generally speaking, guys who steal will steal, and guys who don't steal will not steal. You know how stealing is. Let's ask of each player a very basic question: Has the player ever before stolen 20 bases in a major- or minor-league season?
Rizzo is our one holdout. Which you could've guessed, because he's a plodding first baseman. He topped out at 10 steals as a 20-year-old in the minors in 2010. Overall in the minors, he stole 23 bags. In the majors before this year, he had 16 successful steals and 12 unsuccessful steals. According to a project called the Fan Scouting Report, Rizzo last season was given a 38 "speed" rating by Cubs fans, on a scale that goes up to 100. Some players given similar speed ratings: Mike Moustakas, James Loney, and Jhonny Peralta.
Rizzo doesn't have a history of running fast, nor does he have a history of running often. Below, his year-by-year rates of steal attempts per opportunity, where the league average is about 6%:
The jump up is obvious. And it's not like there was warning of this in Arizona -- this past spring, Rizzo stole just one bag. But, I can make this even weirder. Through April 17, on the basepaths, Rizzo was 0 out of 0. All his steals have come in the past two weeks. So, over the past two weeks, Rizzo is tied for the most stolen bases in baseball.
That's...not what would be expected. In part, the Cubs have been running more because now the Cubs have Fowler. But the Cubs have also been running more with Rizzo, whom they've had for years. He's just being utilized differently, and out of this we can learn a little something about the reality of stolen bases. There's no other choice -- we have to look at .gifs of Rizzo taking off. How has what's happened happened? Advancing in chronological order:
The first steal, on April 18, against Tyson Ross and Wil Nieves. There's a lot at play, here. You always have to remember the element of surprise -- no one expects Rizzo to take off. Ross has never been good about controlling the running game, giving up 31 stolen bases a season ago. And this was a 1-2 count against a right-handed hitter, and a rookie righty to boot. Rizzo probably knew that Ross loves to bury his slider in these situations, and a ball in the dirt would make a steal automatic. The steal here: automatic.
Later on the same day, Rizzo stole against Craig Kimbrel and Derek Norris. As a rule of thumb, relievers are worse about holding runners than starters are, and if you glance over you can see that Rizzo got a hell of a jump. Kimbrel has a high leg kick, and he's usually preoccupied with trying to strike out the hitter. So this was a good opportunity to catch Kimbrel off guard.
No mystery with this one, off A.J. Burnett and Francisco Cervelli. Look at the jump that Rizzo got. Burnett never even thought about throwing over, and he didn't speed himself up to the plate. Controlling the running game is not a strength of Burnett's. Since 2010, he's been on the mound for 161 steals, and 25 failed attempts. As pitchers go, he's relatively easy to take advantage of.
Probably the most fun steal in the collection, this one off Aroldis Chapman and Brayan Pena. You're seeing Rizzo going from second to third, and another guy trailing for the easy additional swipe. Now, we know Chapman throws really hard, and he throws up in the zone, which in theory makes it easier for the catcher to throw out a runner. But Rizzo was allowed to take a huge lead, and Chapman never gave thought to attempting a pickoff. Rizzo checked that he wasn't being defended and then he started sprinting, and Chapman isn't a slide-stepper. So Rizzo stole third base without a throw.
Now it's Rizzo against Pena and Anthony DeSclafani. This was all about Rizzo's read -- he saw that DeSclafani wasn't paying him any attention, so he danced further and further away and was able to start booking it on first move. By the time Pena was up, arm cocked, Rizzo had already almost arrived. This was a case of a first baseman stealing against a pitcher slow to home plate.
This one's cheating, but it counts, with the Cubs pulling off a double steal against Jeff Locke and Cervelli. Locke looked Fowler back at second base, but Fowler read that Locke would start his motion as soon as he looked back toward home. So Fowler got to third easily, and, behind him, Rizzo all but jogged into second, never having to slide to pick up his sixth steal within a couple weeks. It's a steal with an asterisk, but double steals have always been possible. Rizzo doesn't have a history of many of these.
Six successful steals in a row. Granted, it hasn't always worked. Rizzo's seventh attempt:
With good work by Gerrit Cole and Chris Stewart, Rizzo was toast. This is what you'd expect of a Rizzo stolen-base attempt. He's not a fast runner, so when the pitcher and catcher work even somewhat quickly, the math just isn't on Rizzo's side. And make no mistake, stealing is a simple math equation. But for too long, people have figured that stealing is a quick man's game. People have been overly cautious with the lesser-blessed. A successful steal depends on both speed and read, and if you're able to teach good reads, blazing speed is helpful but unnecessary. So much of stealing is simple awareness.
The last great case of this was probably Daniel Murphy. Murphy's never been quick, but the Mets prioritized heads-up, aggressive baserunning, and on the strength of good reads alone, Murphy stole 23 bases in 2013, and 22 in a row. The next season, he dropped to 13 steals, and this year Murphy's still waiting to make his first attempt. Perhaps the opponents caught on. But seizing even temporary value is still seizing value. You should take what you're being given, until it's not being given to you any longer.
Rizzo has taken advantage of his opportunities. At some point, the opportunities will start to go away, as opponents pay more attention to him. But then you've got opposing pitchers paying attention to Rizzo on the bases, dividing their attention on the guy at the plate. Maddon might call that a win/win. In the meantime, he'll take the bases his team can get based on situational awareness. For two weeks, Rizzo has stolen as many bases as anyone else. You want your runners to be fast. But more than that, you just want your runners to be smart.
