The margin for error is shrinking for the Detroit Lions, but they return to play two games in five days at home - Sunday against Tampa Bay and Thursday against Green Bay in the annual Thanksgiving Day showcase.
If they win both, they'll be 8-4 and in very good shape to win their first division title in two decades. If they split - or, heaven forbid, lose both - it could signal another second-half collapse with no playoff bid again.
This should-win/must-win stretch starts with the Buccaneers, who are better than their 2-8 record. Here are five storylines to follow:
1. JOHNSON VS. REVIS
What a matchup: Calvin Johnson, the best receiver in the game, vs. Darrelle Revis, one of the top three cornerbacks, if not the best.
"This is why people pay money to go watch, to watch two of the best players at their positions going up against each other," Lions offensive coordinator Scott Linehan said.
How much they're matched up in man-to-man coverage remains to be seen because the Bucs like to play zone, but there's no doubt Johnson and Revis will meet up early and often, either way.
It's happened only once before during their seven-year careers. How did Revis fare?
"One catch for 13 yards, what do you think?" Revis said, referring to Johnson's statistics in the Lions' 23-20 loss to the New York Jets in that 2010 meeting.
"I covered him most of the time in man coverage and happened to just do a great job on him."
Johnson's response: "Shoot, there was some opportunities there. We just weren't able to take advantage of them."
Johnson was the No. 2 pick overall by the Lions in 2007 coming out of Georgia Tech. Revis went No. 14 overall to the Jets that same year while coming out of the University of Pittsburgh. He spent his first six years with the Jets before getting traded to the Bucs last April. He's in the first year of a six-year, $96 million contract.
Asked if he considers Revis to be the NFL's top corner, ahead of other elite players such as Arizona's Patrick Peterson and Seattle's Richard Sherman, Johnson said, "He's definitely up there."
"He plays the ball real well," Johnson said of Revis. "He can see like a receiver and catch it. He can make plays on the ball. He's a lot stronger than a normal corner."
Johnson is coming off a disappointing second half at Pittsburgh when he caught no passes during a 37-27 loss in which the Lions faded late to give up their one-game lead in the NFC North.
Will he take his frustration out on Revis?
Or will Revis get the best of him again?
2. HELP FOR MEGATRON
Help is on the way for Megatron.
Emotional leader Nate Burleson, who suffered a broken left forearm in a car accident and has missed the last seven games, is expected to return to the lineup this week.
He's practiced the last three weeks and was working with the first-team offense in recent days. He will wear a protective brace on the arm.
"I'm very excited," said Burleson, who was the team's most productive receiver over the first three weeks with 19 catches for 239 yards. "My goal is to pick up where I left off and take a little pressure off Calvin.
"I've been thrown the ball quite a bit this week. I've been catching the ball extremely well. Catching the ball was the worry. I have no pain and my hands are strong."
Burleson had his best game as a Lion the last time we saw him with six receptions for 116 yards in a victory at Washington on September 22.
"He brings a lot of things that aren't in the box score, his leadership and his energy," Linehan said. "Just being able to have that in the huddle brings confidence to the group."
Coach Jim Schwartz added: "We miss that. He's been around and involved in the team, but there is nothing like having that guy on the field."
The upside: Burleson, in his 10th season, should have fresh legs for the stretch run.
3. MISLEADING RECORD
Don't be fooled by Tampa Bay's 0-8 start before victories the last two weeks against Miami and Atlanta.
That eight-game losing streak included a one-point loss at the Jets, a two-point loss to New Orleans, a three-point loss to Arizona and a three-point loss in overtime at Seattle.
There were a lot of distractions early on, including quarterback Josh Freeman getting benched and then traded. The Buccaneers struggled to finish games, but they've been a competitive team more often than not and now they're starting to gain some confidence at an inconvenient time for Detroit.
"Probably the most talented defense we'll be playing all year," Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford said. "You look at what they spent, resource-wise, draft pick-wise. These guys are as talented as it comes."
Besides Revis, the playmakers include defensive tackle Gerald McCoy (six sacks, including three last week against Atlanta), and linebackers Lavonte David (14 tackles for loss and five sacks) and Mason Foster (two interception returns for touchdowns).
The offense has been hit with season-ending injuries to the top two running backs - Doug Martin and Mike James - but Bobby Rainey has stepped in and is averaging 5.5 yards per carry.
"If we get caught looking ahead, Tampa Bay will beat us," Lions running back Reggie Bush said.
Under no circumstances can that happen.
4. WHERE'S SUH?
For the first time in his 56-game NFL career, defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh did not show up on the stat sheet last game against Pittsburgh.
No sacks. No tackles for losses. No tackles period.
No pass defenses. No quarterback hits. No fumbles forced, no fumbles recovered.
Nothing.
"As a defensive tackle, you're not always going to be on the stat sheet, but you can affect things," Suh said. "You can help your teammates make plays. We didn't do enough to get the win, so I wasn't effective enough."
Look for a dominating effort from Suh this week in response.
He's part of a defensive line that can be so impressive one game and then almost disappear at times the next. More of that is on the other defensive tackle, Nick Fairley, than Suh, but they both need to be at their best to put pressure on the quarterback and help hide holes in the secondary week in and week out.
The problem is that some quarterbacks - such as Pittsburgh's Ben Roethlisberger - seem to put more emphasis on releasing passes quicker when they're going against Suh and company.
"Sometimes you have to take that as a sign of respect and just continue to fight and try to get back there much more quickly," Suh said. "We just have to continue to chomp at the bit and things will start to roll in our direction."
5. REBOUND TIME
The Lions haven't lost two straight all season, which is a big reason they're tied with Chicago for first place.
Detroit has come back from losses to win at Washington, at Cleveland and at home against Dallas.
How will they respond this time?
"We know how important this game is," Burleson said. "I tell these guys, 'Each game is our Super Bowl.' Until you get there, that's the way you've got to play it. There's no time to relax, no time to be complacent.
"We dropped a couple games that we knew we should have won (25-21 at Arizona, 27-24 vs. Cincinnati and most recently Pittsburgh), which means at this point in the year, we can't turn around on Monday and say that (again).
"That can cost you a season now."
Still, the Lions remain in the driver's seat in their division. They play four of the last six at home. They own the tiebreaker over Chicago because of a two-game sweep. The Bears play four of their next five on the road.
Green Bay, which trails Detroit and Chicago by a game, remains without star quarterback Aaron Rodgers. The Packers have lost three straight, including the game in which Rodgers was injured.
"I don't think you can ask for a better spot," Suh said. "We have an opportunity to own our own destiny. I think any team in the NFL would ask to be in this type of situation. We can continue to hold those reigns as long as we take care of business."
INJURY/LINEUP REPORT
The Lions should get a nice lift with the return of Burleson, defensive end Ezekiel "Ziggy" Ansah (ankle) and cornerback Bill Bentley (knee), who are all listed as probable. Ansah and Bentley have missed the last two games.
Safety Glover Quin (ankle), running back Joique Bell (Achilles) and defensive end Israel Idonije (knee) are all questionable.
The Lions will catch a break because Tampa Bay free safety Dashon Goldson has been suspended for this game following a helmet-to-helmet hit last week.
"We call them a vacuum cleaner, he's a guy that makes a lot of tackles all over the field, that covers up mistakes in front of him," Schwartz said of Goldson. "He's a difference maker."
What's more, the Buccaneers have ruled out both Foster (concussion) and offensive guard Carl Nicks (foot).
PICK:
LIONS - 8
(Dye's season prediction record: 7-3).
