Did you watch the opener to championship week between the Colts and Texans? If you did, then I suspect you were trotting out Arian Foster for his huge effort or wishing and hoping for production from other slots (Neil Rackers, the Houston defense or perhaps even Reggie Wayne).
Foster owners were treated to a quick touchdown following an early Indianapolis turnover. The only other non-kicker scoring play occurred in the game’s final minute (Wayne’s late touchdown reception from Orlovsky). It wasn’t pretty, but the Colts are now winners of two straight.
Suddenly, the Week 17 matchup with Jacksonville had another question associated with it. What happens if Indianapolis slides out of the top spot in the NFL Draft picture? Which of those teams selects a quarterback?
Which owner or GM will curse more than five times in the war room when realizing that Matt Barkley returned to USC.
Anyway, I’ll ponder the larger league issues at another time. For now, it’s time to get back between the white lines and fill out those secondary roster options. We’re looking for upside potential and home run slates.
If you want safe, go watch “Barney.” (not HIMYM, the purple dinosaur)
Let’s complete the week and get the holiday weekend started. Remember, I’ll be on-air with the FOX Sports Radio “Fantasy Freaks” show from 9a-12p/6-9a PT on Saturday this week. Call with your best/worst holiday gifts and your wish lists.
Merry Christmas, everybody.
Exclude: Rob Gronkowski, Antonio Gates, Jimmy Graham, Aaron Hernandez, Tony Gonzalez, Jermichael Finley, Jason Witten
Week 16 TE Heroes
Brent Celek at DAL: Celek posted a monster game in Week 15 against the Jets in a classic beatdown. He caught five passes for 156 yards and scored his third touchdown of the year. Celek has been a consistent contributor to fantasy lineups and the most reliable option in the Philadelphia passing attack. He’s caught three or more passes in nine consecutive games, averaging five receptions and 62 receiving yards during this period.
He logged seven receptions for 94 yards with a touchdown in the first meeting with the Cowboys. Dallas has surrendered the eighth-most fantasy points to tight ends (5.4 receptions and 63.9 receiving yards per game).
Vernon Davis at SEA: Davis rebounded nicely from his quiet Week 14 effort against the Cardinals (one reception for 32 yards) with his highest yardage output since Week 3. He caught six passes for 72 yards against the Steelers and scored his sixth touchdown of the season. I don’t anticipate a huge effort from Davis against the Seahawks (he’s topped 60 receiving yards only three times this season), but he’s been a consistent target for Alex Smith with three or more receptions in 11 of 14 games. Seattle ranks in the middle of the pack against tight ends.
Brandon Pettigrew vs. SD: Pettigrew remains a strong PPR contributor on a weekly basis, though owners in standard leagues continue to rue the existence of Tony Scheffler as a thief of red zone targets. Pettigrew has caught four or more passes in 11 of the Lions’ 14 games, producing 42 or more receiving yards on six occasions with four touchdowns. I expect to see him playing a huge role in this game against the surging Chargers (like that?). This one has shootout potential in the dome.
Dustin Keller vs. NYG: Red zone appearances have been infrequent for Keller, but he’s maintained a high weekly target count and has caught multiple passes in 13 of 14 games. Keller has topped in nine games, including his three-reception, 73-yard effort against the Eagles in defeat. He’ll be a frequent target this week against the deplorable New York secondary (the Jets can mince words, but I won’t). The Giants have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to tight ends.
Greg Olsen vs. TB: Olsen’s production dropped off markedly following his hot start to the season, but he represents a solid plug-in option here against the disintegrating Tampa Bay defense. The fifth-year player out of Miami has caught multiple passes in 11 of 14 games this season. Interestingly, the first game against Tampa Bay was one of his three one-reception outings. Despite that flop, Olsen is on the radar for a better return engagement this week. The Tampa Bay defense has allowed the 11th-most fantasy points to tight ends, and this squad has gotten progressively worse.
Week 16 TE Flop Alerts
Jermaine Gresham vs. ARI: I remain a huge believer in Gresham and his long-term prospects, particularly given the early success of Andy Dalton and A.J. Green. However, he’s been a spotty option for fantasy owners of late. Gresham possesses an active streak of six games with at least three receptions, but note that he’s recorded 48 receiving yards or fewer in five of those games.
Arizona has allowed the eighth-fewest fantasy points to tight ends (50.8 receiving yards and 0.29 receiving touchdowns per game).
Kellen Winslow at CAR: Winslow remains a solid, albeit unspectacular, option for owners in PPR leagues. He’s caught three or more passes in 13 of 14 games this season, but has topped 50 receiving yards only four times. Winslow hasn’t scored since Week 9.
Winslow caught four passes for 41 yards in Week 13 against the Panthers.
Ed Dickson vs. CLE: Expectations are raised for Dickson following the announcement that Anquan Boldin would miss the final two games of the regular season because of a knee injury. I’m still not touching the passing game against the Browns. I believe that the formula employed by the Ravens in the first meeting will be reapplied. Ray Rice and Ricky Williams will pile up touches in leading Baltimore to a victory.
* Owners desperate for a tight end play can keep Dickson in their lineup, as Cleveland has allowed the 13th-most points to tight ends. However, I’m not anticipating a huge effort from Joe Flacco overall.
Week 16 TE Ninja Alerts
Kellen Davis at GB: Davis’ inclusion herein is obviously a huge gamble with Josh McCown taking the reins of the Chicago offense. Of course, Davis hasn’t exactly been a juggernaut of late, producing just seven receptions in the Bears’ past seven games (two touchdowns).
Still, I’m anticipating a heavier reliance on the short passing game this week against the heavily-favored Packers. Dom Capers will bring the heat on McCown, thereby forcing him to get the ball out quickly. Scream out a few calls of “Hot route!” with me.
Jared Cook vs. JAC: Cook turned in a huge game in Week 15 against the Colts with nine receptions and 103 receiving yards, though he did lose a fumble that proved costly. He’s obviously a risky proposition for this game, as he’d failed to record a reception in the Titans’ prior two games. It was his 10th multi-reception game of the season, a huge effort that accounts for nearly one quarter of his reception count.
Cook has finished six games with at least 40 receiving yards. I’m intrigued to see the offense’s flow in this home tilt against a sinking Jacksonville secondary.
Anthony Fasano at NE: Fasano has caught multiple passes in seven consecutive games. That isn’t to say that he’s been dominant by any means, as Fasano has topped 50 receiving yards just three times during this period (four touchdowns). Still, Fasano warrants a look-see off of the waiver wire this week. He caught five passes for 82 yards (both season-high marks) in Week 1 against this New England squad.
The Patriots have allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to tight ends this season. I don’t anticipate huge fireworks, but there will be opportunities as Matt Moore tries to keep pace with Tom Brady.
Heath Miller vs. STL: I was torn on where to place Miller this week. Statistically, the Rams rank first against tight ends (27.9 receiving yards per game and one touchdown all season), but Miller will be key to this Pittsburgh offense in the short week. He posted his best game since Week 8 with five receptions for 82 yards against the 49ers. I expect to see more of the short passing game at work against the Rams whether Ben Roethlisberger (game-time decision) or Charlie Batch stands under center. Miller’s obviously a risky play (he’d caught five passes in the previous three weeks), but this could be a sneaky spot.
Kickers
Plug-In Kickers
Mike Nugent vs. ARI: Nugent has quietly pieced together a fantastic season in support of the surprising Bengals. He’s converted multiple field goals in nine games with 30 PATs. More importantly, Bryant has been remarkably consistent from distances between 40-49 yards (he’s made 11-of-12 attempts).
The Cardinals have surrendered the fourth-most fantasy points to kickers, including 30 field goals.
Matt Bryant at NO: Bryant converted two field goals against the Jaguars, his first multi-field goal game in four weeks. He’s been shut out of the field goal column twice this season and has hammered home 38 PATs (three or more PATs in seven games).
Bryant converted three field goals and two PATs in the first meeting with the Saints. I anticipate a high-scoring affair to close out championship week.
Shayne Graham vs. CLE: Billy Cundiff has been struggling of late and drawn the ire of Baltimore fans. He’s slated to miss Saturday’s game against the Browns, thereby presenting owners with a golden plug-in option in the veteran Graham.
Graham converted 4-of-5 field goal tries as a plug-in option for the Dolphins in late-November. The Ravens are heavy favorites in this encore bout against the Browns. Baltimore won the first meeting by a count of 24-10. Cleveland has allowed the 13th-most fantasy points to kickers. Interestingly, half of the field goal conversions against the Browns came from distances shorter than 30 yards.
Alex Henery at DAL: Henery has been a consistent PAT machine for fantasy owners, but field goal opportunities have been sparse. He’s converted multiple field goals in just one of the Eagles’ past seven games. Still, I have to put the rookie out of Nebraska among the heroes for this week in a huge spot. The big, shiny places in Nevada expect a high-scoring affair in “Big D” (50 ½). I concur with their expectations.
Matt Prater at BUF: Prater was elevated to a higher social status when he was featured in last week’s Saturday Night Live sketch about the Denver locker room. He did his best impression of a live-action “Super Jock” figure against the Bears in Week 14 with two long-range field goal conversions (51 and 59-yard makes). Prater has been a solid, consistent option this season, producing at least one field goal conversion in 13 of 14 games with multiple PAT conversions in nine of 14 games (he has not been shut out in that column).
Kickers on the Pine
Robbie Gould at GB: Gould’s accuracy is unquestioned. Unfortunately, his weekly workload is a much less predictable. He’s converted multiple field goals in just one of his past five games, and this week’s shift to Josh McCown under center is obviously a shoulder-shrugging situation. You don’t expect it to be terribly productive, and there’s no guaranty that we see much of Gould at all.
* I remember attending a game between the Bears and 49ers where Chicago quarterback Cade McNown failed to move the offense past the 50-yard line.
Sebastian Janikowski at KC: Janikowski finally got back into the field goal column following a two-game absence with two field goals and three PATs in Week 15 against the Lions. He’s produced multiple field goal conversions just three times since Week 5, including that ridiculous six-field goal effort in Week 12 against Chicago.
The Chiefs have allowed the ninth-fewest fantasy points to kickers, including 18 field goal conversions. Janikowski always has the potential to reclaim his place as the game’s preeminent long-distance kicker, but this Oakland team has been wildly inconsistent down the stretch. I fear another rough day from Carson Palmer against the Kansas City secondary and infrequent chances for Seabass.
Nick Folk vs. NYG: If Folk’s post-Week 8 pattern of performances holds to form, he will not convert a field goal this week. In his past seven games, Folk has produced four two-field goal games. He’s been shut out three times. He has essentially served as a PAT machine for owners, having converted a total of 40 PATs through 14 weeks (multiple conversions in 12 of 14 games).
The numbers say that he’s a solid play against the Giants. The Giants have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to kickers, including 25 field goal conversions. I ranked Folk as a mid-K2 option with upside.
Defenses
Plug-In Defenses
Kansas City vs. OAK: Romeo Crennel’s defense is playing well right now, though I fear an emotional letdown this week following last week’s win over the Packers. You don’t have a letdown against your rival, do you?
The Raiders have piled up sizable turnover count in 2011, and Carson Palmer has been careless with the ball. Opponents have generated 27 Oakland turnovers this season, including 20 interceptions, and have produced 25 sacks. It’s not the Arrowhead of old, but this house will be rocking on Saturday.
Seattle vs. SF: Marshawn Lynch has been making headlines for the past two months, but this Seattle defense has put together a fantasy season. The Seahawks rank sixth in total defense (19.5 points per game) and have generated 30 turnovers and 29 sacks. The youthful and opportunistic squad has also produced four defensive touchdowns (tied for fourth in the NFL).
San Francisco is careful with the ball and commits few turnovers, but Alex Smith has absorbed 39 sacks (ninth in the NFL). The Seattle defense tends to take its game to another level in front of the home crowd.
Cincinnati vs. ARI: The good and bad of John Skelton under center for the Cardinals is that he’s fearless. That attitude results in an extra big play or touchdown pass, but also translates into extra opportunities for defensive backs. The Cardinals have surrendered the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing defenses, including 27 turnovers and 47 sacks (second-most in the NFL).
Washington vs. MIN: The Redskins still have an opportunity to post a decent showing in 2011, and a date with the two-win Vikings certainly helps the cause. Opponents have generated 45 sacks and 23 turnovers against Minnesota, three of which were returned for touchdowns.
Washington ranks 17th in total defense (21.4 points allowed per game) and have generated 37 sacks. Early pressure on Christian Ponder could yield a big day from this unit.
Defenses on the Pine
Chicago at GB: The Chicago defense has done everything possible to pick up for the slumping offense (except to make good off of the Jugs gun work by catching would-be interceptions), but this is a near-impossible spot. The Packers seek to rebound from their first loss of the season in front of the home crowd against Josh McCown. Green Bay has produced 27 interceptions.
Dallas vs. PHI: The Eagles are surging down the stretch, and that’s positively dangerous for Rob Ryan’s crew. Philadelphia has piled up 71 points in the past two weeks and, for all of the struggles in the 2011 season, this unit is still tied for ninth in total offense at 24.4 points scored per game.
The Cowboys were embarrassed by the Eagles in Week 8 by a final score of 34-7.
New York Giants at NYJ: The Giants remain an enigma through 14 weeks of play. Will the pass rush show up on Sunday, or will Mark Sanchez have his chance to work on that porous secondary? Don’t buy the line that the Jets have been selling this week about the strength of the Giants secondary. If the pass rush falters, it’ll be another long day for Tom Coughlin’s porous defensive backfield.
Detroit vs. SD: The Chargers are in the midst of their typical December surge, and Norv Turner has finally established balance in the offense. Of course, the fact that all of the principals are healthy at the same time for the first time in forever certainly doesn’t hurt. I still ranked Detroit as a top-10 defense for this week, as I do believe that Ndamukong Suh and the pass rush will find success against the San Diego offensive line. However, I also anticipate a high-scoring affair in the dome (Detroit allows 23.7 points per game) as both teams vie for a playoff berth.
FOX Fantasy Football Homepage | Football Chat Central
