It's less than three weeks away — May 30, folks, save the date — and as is recently customary, the Pistons will be partaking in the NBA Draft lottery, a painfully gratifying postseason ritual.
The Pistons own 17 of the 1,001 potentially winning ping-pong balls, or a 1.7 percent chance to pick first overall. They would be saddled with the ninth pick overall if the lottery were to go to chalk.
But the unpredictability of the lottery allows for some mobility and infinite hope — in other words, a brutal mirage. That's where the "pain" of the lottery resides.
The lottery is driven by probability, so we'll operate under this not-so-fun assumption:
The Pistons will end up with the ninth pick, will watch players who they truly coveted fly off the board and will be left with a precarious pool of college players featuring the likes of Tyler Zeller, Jared Sullinger, Perry Jones III and Terrence Jones.
Sounds like a good-but-not-great pick, right? After all, this draft is supposed to be deep, isn't it? They could totally score a gem in the vicinity of the ninth pick, right?
History would dictate otherwise — recent history in particular is downright frightening — which is why the Pistons should trade their 2012 first-round draft pick. Gone, send it away, bye bye.
They should bank on teams overvaluing top-10 selections (which they will) and pluck a desperate star from a desperate contender.
They should do so after the lottery, of course, but once David Stern locks in their selection, the Pistons need to send someone to FedEx immediately and overnight that sucker out of town.
All of those college players listed above were solid in the frontcourt, where the Pistons could use some depth. They all filled a Robin-to-their-respective-Batman role very nicely, willingly playing second fiddle to more versatile scorers. They all have the skill set to be selected ninth overall, and that's kind of scary.
Of the 12 players selected ninth overall since 2000, two have become All-Stars (Amar'e Stoudemire and Andre Iguodala), and only one has been named to an All-NBA team (Stoudemire).
After the two headliners, the list looks like this: Joel Przybilla, Rodney White, Mike Sweetney, Ike Diogu, Patrick O'Bryant, Joakim Noah, D.J. Augustin, DeMar DeRozan, Gordon Hayward and Kemba Walker.
Noah will make an All-Star team at some point in his clumsy career (after all, Chris Kaman has done it once), and the jury is still out on DeRozan, Hayward and Walker, although the odds don't look good for them.
White, Sweetney, O'Bryant and Diogu are all out of the NBA. They played in a combined 766 NBA games — about 9.3 full seasons between the four forwards.
Augustin doesn't look as if he'll emerge as the sharp-shooting point guard the Bobcats were hoping for, and Przybilla has been decidedly mediocre in his 12-year career. The 7-foot-1 center has averaged 4.0 points and 6.3 rebounds per game while playing for four teams.
The ninth pick itself isn't the lone landmine slot in the draft, though. Picks seven through 12 are a nightmare in general.
From 2000-2011, only six of the 72 players selected within that range have made an All-Star team. To heck with basketball, those are bad odds in Vegas.
The NBA Draft is more top heavy than any other sport. Given the abbreviated two-round time frame, teams don't have much room to err.
That's what makes the selection process in the NBA so baffling: In a draft where the margin of error is microscopic, teams seem to make the biggest leaps. After the sixth pick, a future All-Star is about as likely as rolling snake eyes.
If the odds aren't enough to convince the Pistons to trade their first-round pick, there's this: Two big-time power forwards are unhappy and walking on eggshells within their own arenas following disappointing first-round playoff losses.
One was so unhappy he even punched a fire extinguisher. Stoudemire also happens to be the only ninth pick selected since 2000 to make an All-NBA team.
The other option in this hypothetical front-office conversation is Josh Smith, Atlanta' permanently disgruntled, yet very gifted power forward. Smith has already requested a trade this season, back in March.
Unhappy? Check. Talented? Check. Available? The Pistons should hope so.
The Pistons already have a proven scorer in the backcourt with the re-emergence of Rodney Stuckey and a point guard in Brandon Knight, who could be a franchise cornerstone.
Jason Maxiell shows flashes of crazy. Ben Gordon proved that, when engaged, he's still as deadly as they come from behind the 3-point line.
History tells us that Stoudemire or Smith would be a considerable upgrade over whatever the Pistons could muster with the ninth pick, and either could provide a foil for Greg Monroe down low.
Even with Stoudemire's athletic ability fleeting faster than time itself, he's still a veteran who can take over a game, especially as a "go to, get the heck out of my way, I'M SCORING NOW" guy.
Smith is set to make $13.4 million in '12-13, which is a lot, and Stoudemire is in for about $20 million for each of the next four seasons. But if the Pistons could figure out a way to package either Charlie Villanueva or Tayshaun Prince with the pick, they might be able to get it to work under the salary cap.
It might seem like a farfetched scheme here in May, but check back in June — when Smith and Stoudemire are allowing their frustration to marinate while watching the Eastern Conference finals from the comfy confines of their respective homes.
The league-wide trade chatter certainly will pick up then, and it would be a shame if the Pistons didn't pipe in.
