They’re back, and there is no such thing as it being “old hat.” For the 17th time overall and 12th time under Billy Donovan, the Gators are once again recognized as one of the nation’s best college basketball programs with the No. 7 seed in the West region.
The stars have to line up correctly, but this year's draw is perhaps the easiest path Florida has ever had to once again reach a Final Four.
The postseason process of becoming the national champions has never been based upon actually being the best team in the country. It is simply being the best team in six consecutive games.
There is no question that you must be a very good team to win the biggest prize, but the most important part of the journey is the placement of teams and how you match up with opponents, especially in the early rounds.
As a No. 7 seed in the West, Florida received an opportunistic group of teams that gives them a good possibility of winning big games. The Gators begin their quest against a Virginia team that is well coached and takes immense pride in defense.
The Cavaliers gave up 53.7 points per game this season, second-best in the nation. Only one team all year made 10 or more 3-pointers in a game against Virginia, and that was Michigan in a game that saw Virginia hit a season-high nine 3-pointers of their own and win by 12 points.
But on the other hand, Virginia averaged 63 points a game, 269th in the country, and was not among the top 100 teams in points-per-possession. Their offense revolves around All-ACC player Mike Scott, who at 6-foot-8 plays below his listed height and could be the assignment for Brad Beal for the Gators.
Virginia is a relatively small team and should have difficulty matching up with Florida’s inside tandem of Patric Young and Erik Murphy. It will be a game where managing possessions will be at a premium, but having televised the LSU vs. Virginia game in January, it is my perspective that the Gators will win.
The next assignment would most likely be Missouri. I watched the Tigers play the Sooners in Norman, Okla., a few weeks ago and once again feel the Gators will have a very favorable matchup.
Everyone has trouble with Kim English, Marcus Denmon and the Tigers’ wide-open pace of play, but for the most part, Missouri also has a size deficiency and at times really struggles to defend.
Florida will make it difficult for Missouri to handle ball screens, and the Gators will present one of the tougher defensive teams the Tigers have faced all year. These two potential games have the possibility of giving Florida a great shot at the Sweet Sixteen.
Then it becomes a free for all. Colorado State, Marquette and Murray State appear on the radar depending upon who advances. Marquette would be the most difficult of the three in terms of personnel. In a lot of cases the great thing about the tournament is that many of these teams have seldom played each other.
In the case of these three possible opponents, Murray State has never played Florida, Marquette played Florida in 1976 and 1977 when Al McGuire was roaming the sidelines, and Florida played Colorado State only once in 1989, losing by 22 in a first-round NCAA game after winning the program’s first SEC championship.
Marquette is in the powerful Big East, and they have five common opponents with Florida, having lost to Syracuse, LSU and Vanderbilt, and defeating Ole Miss and Jacksonville. Vandy beat the Golden Eagles by 17 points in Milwaukee.
Neither Murray State nor Colorado State should be able to present a test greater than the Gators have seen in SEC play, so you would like to think Florida can get to that Elite Eight game with a win over any one of these three teams.
At that point, all bets are off.
Louisville, Memphis, Michigan State and New Mexico are possible opponents, with Michigan State getting the nod as the No. 1 seed. But just like Florida’s win over Connecticut in 1994, you only need to “find a way” to win that one game.
Florida has a very good team. They have four McDonald’s All-Americans and a chip on their shoulder having lost to Butler in an Elite Eight game last year that Florida should have won. The way Florida competed against Kentucky in the SEC semifinal tournament game tells me that this team has finally discovered its potential and is ready for whatever might stand in its way.
Several weeks ago, I thought Florida would get to the Final Four, and I still feel that way today.
