ST. LOUIS -- Oddsmakers and experts agree: The Cardinals again enter spring training as the team to beat in the NL Central.
Decisive favorites, really. The online gaming site, bovada.com, has set the over-under line on the Cardinals' wins in 2015 at 88.5. Next come the Pirates at 83.5, followed by the Cubs at 82.5, Brewers (78.5) and Reds (77.5).
MLB Network host Greg Amsinger agrees with the odds, at least those for the top team in the division.
"Look at it this way: I can't tell you the clear-cut worst team in the NL Central," Amsinger said. "They're all bunched together. It could be the Brewers. It could be the Reds if those guys don't bounce back. It could be the Chicago Cubs because the position players are so young and maybe they're not what we thought. It could be the Pittsburgh Pirates. They really didn't add a lot."
Here's a look at what all four of the Cardinals' division rivals added, subtracted and will be trying to accomplish over the next six weeks.
PIRATES
Moves that mattered: Lost C Russell Martin, who had become their Yadier Molina but was considered too pricy to retain. He went to the Blue Jays for a five-year, $82 million deal. Traded lefty reliever Justin Wilson (not to be confused with more effective Tony Watson) to the Yankees for C Francisco Cervelli. Traded for Phillies lefty reliever Antonio Bastardo to replace Wilson. Did not re-sign starter Edinson Volquez but brought back A.J. Burnett on a one-year deal. Signed former Brewers 1B/RF Corey Hart, who could platoon with Pedro Alvarez (think Mark Reynolds and Matt Adams), and traded for utilityman Sean Rodriguez. Also lost OF Travis Snider and SS Clint Barmes. Signed 27-year-old SS Jung-ho Kang from Korea to a four-year, $11 million contract. He is penciled in to back up Jordy Mercer.
Spring focus: Breaking in a new catcher.
To replace the ex-Yankee Martin, the Pirates went for another Yankee in Cervelli. He is a career .271 hitter and considered a better receiver than Martin but has never been a regular catcher in the majors. Heading to a new league as well as a new team, Cervelli will be challenged not only to learn a new pitching staff but a new set of hitters, too. The Pirates have a strong support system to assist, though, which includes another ex-Yankee in backup Chris Stewart.
Early take: They're not going away.
CUBS
Moves that mattered: Hired manager Joe Maddon, which moved up the timetable to contend by a year, but their karma also took a hit in how they had to dump Rick Renteria. Signed an ace in Jon Lester for six years and $155 million and brought in two new catchers, Miguel Montero and backup David Ross (who will be Lester's primary catcher). The Cubs still have promising C Wellington Castillo, who should return a good player when they trade him this spring. Also signed Cardinals favorite Jason Motte and are hoping he can handle a late-inning relief role. Traded for CF Dexter Fowler, though it cost underrated 3B Luis Valbuena. That leaves disappointing Mike Olt at third base for now, though top prospect Kris Bryant is expected to arrive sometime this season. Jason Hammel was brought back to start, giving the Cubs enough rotation candidates that Edwin Jackson has been relegated to the bullpen.
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Spring focus: Adjusting to the Maddon man.
He is regarded by many as the game's best manager for his ability to motivate, make in-game decisions and deal with all the off-the-field obligations. But what makes him such an ideal fit for the Cubs is his record for bringing along a young team. It took three years to turn the perennial doormat Rays into an annual contender. One way he did so was instilling a don't-back-down attitude in his players that belies his hip persona. He's inheriting a team that is considered more talented than his early Rays, but also younger.
Early take: They'll be better, but it's still wait 'til next year.
BREWERS
Moves that mattered: They traded with the Blue Jays for 1B Adam Lind and signed veteran lefty Neal Cotts, who spent the past two years in the Rangers' bullpen. If you think they should have added more, you're not alone. The Brewers needed to add a right-handed-hitting first baseman to split time with the lefty-hitting Lind, who hit .061 against left-handers last season. Milwaukee could have a couple of new relievers after signing former Cardinal Chris Perez to a minor league deal -- and especially when you look at what the Brewers have lost.
Start with closer Francisco Rodriguez, who remains a free agent. The Brewers have shown interest, but they already have Jonathan Broxton under contract for $9 million. They traded veteran right-hander Yovani Gallardo to the Rangers, which opens a spot in the rotation for Jimmy Nelson. Milwaukee picked up right-hander Corey Knebel, a former first-round pick, in the trade. Moving Gallardo should disappoint the Cardinals, who owned the right-hander. In eight seasons with Milwaukee, Gallardo lost 11 of 12 decisions to the Cardinals while being pounded for a 6.45 ERA. Another longtime Brewer who also seemed to be in decline, Rickie Weeks, hooked on with Seattle after the Brewers let him go. Lefty reliever Zach Duke turned a strong 2014 season into a three-year, $15 million deal with the White Sox.
Spring focus: Getting Ryan Braun right.
Like the Reds must have a healthy Joey Votto, the Brewers need LF Ryan Braun to return to his pre-PEDs suspension form. Whether he can do that remains to be seen. Braun struggled much of last season with a nerve issue in his right thumb and finished with a career-low .266/.324/.453 slash line. He underwent surgery in the offseason and recently told Milwaukee media that he feels fine. Seeing how his thumb holds up against live pitching in spring training, however, will provide the real clue to Braun's state. If he's not right, the Brewers will be hard-pressed to return to the top of the division, which is where they spent the first five months of 2014.
The Brewers already lost their best player, catcher Jonathan Lucroy, for four to six weeks after he aggravated a hamstring injury during a recent training session. Lucroy is expected to miss most of spring training but could be ready by Opening Day.
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Early take: They're not finished with the fall that started late last season.
REDS
Moves that mattered: The Reds might finally have filled their hole in left field with their trade for Marlon Byrd, who hit 25 homers for the Phillies last year. He is the only newcomer to the lineup. The Reds' rotation has undergone significant changes with the trades of Mat Latos and Alfredo Simon, and the bullpen added Burke Badenhop on a one-year deal and Kevin Gregg on a minor league contract. Lefty Paul Maholm also agreed to a minor league deal. Cincinnati bid farewell to outfielders Ryan Ludwick (who signed with the Rangers) and Chris Heisey (traded to Dodgers) and reliever Logan Ondrusek (Japan).
Spring focus: Getting healthy.
No player returning from injury will determine the direction his team goes in 2015 more than 31-year-old 1B Joey Votto. He was limited to 62 games last year because of a left quadriceps injury that had some speculating he might never return to his MVP form. That could cripple the Reds, who have $213 million invested in Votto over the next nine years. The winter reports on Votto, not surprisingly, have been encouraging.
Other Reds looking to bounce back from injury-marred seasons are their next three highest-paid players: RF Jay Bruce, 2B Brandon Phillips and right-hander Homer Bailey.
When the Reds are right, they have the talent to hang with the Cardinals. In ace Johnny Cueto and closer Aroldis Chapman, they match the Cardinals at the top of the rotation and in the closer's position.
Early take: The Cardinals better watch out for these guys.
You can follow Stan McNeal on Twitter at @StanMcNeal or email him at stanmcneal@gmail.com.
