The regular season was fun. People worried the condensed schedule would lead to bad basketball, but it was some of the best basketball I've ever seen. It was exciting and wide open and unpredictable.
I think the playoffs are going to be even better.
With a lot of very good teams, but no clear favorite, the playoffs should be great. But what will it take to be successful? To me, there are three things that make playoff basketball different than the regular season version.
One, you have to have stars who can win you games. In the regular season, you can win with depth and speed. In the playoffs, opponents can really focus on trying to take away your strengths. But you can't game plan for superior talent. Stars raise their games in the playoffs and rise above the game plan. If your stars are healthy and rested this time of year, that's a huge factor.
The second difference is style of play. Playoff games are slower, more halfcourt-oriented and defensive. The ability to score in the halfcourt against a set defense is paramount. So is the ability to make key stops at the end of games. Stars make those plays when you need them.
The third thing is matchups. In the regular season, if you have a matchup problem against an opponent, you might be OK for one game. But in a seven-game series, matchup advantages become magnified. It's harder to hide your weaknesses if your opponent has the means to exploit them.
With those factors in mind, let's look at the first-round series in the Western Conference.
No. 3 Lakers vs. No. 6 Nuggets
I'm starting with this one because I think it's the most interesting. LA's strengths are Denver's weaknesses and vice versa. It's a fascinating contrast in styles.
The Nuggets are the highest-scoring team in the league. They're a great three-point shooting team, they get out in transition and have a lot of depth. That's the opposite of the Lakers, who don't shoot the three well, turn the ball over too much and have the least productive bench in the league. Metta World Peace's suspension for the first six playoff games really hurts because it makes the Lakers even thinner and takes away their defensive stopper against an explosive offensive team.
On the other hand, LA's big strength is its size. Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol can be totally dominant. The Nuggets have some big men in Javale McGee, Timofey Mozgov and Kosta Koufos, but I don't think they're big or strong enough to stop the Lakers inside.
The Lakers also clearly have a transcendent talent in Kobe Bryant, who is able to raise his game in the playoffs. LA has the three best players in this series in Bryant, Bynum and Gasol. That's going to be hard for Denver to overcome, even with all of its depth.
That's why I like the Lakers. This is the matchup the Nuggets wanted in the first round because they feel they match up with LA better than they do with San Antonio or Oklahoma City. But the Lakers are built for playoff success. They're second in the league in rebounding, they have great interior defense and they have star power. Advantage, Lakers.
No. 4 Grizzlies vs. No. 5 Clippers
This may be the most competitive first-round series in the West. Memphis took home court away from the Clippers in the final week of the season, which is significant. But if the Clips can just win one of the first two games, they'll be back in command because they're so good at home.
It's another contrast of styles. The Grizzlies want to slow the game down and pound you inside. They have three guys who are big and strong in Marc Gasol, Zach Randolph and Marreese Speights. They're a gritty, scrappy team that leads the league in steals and really gets after you on the defensive end.
The Clippers are much more of a high-flying team that wants to run and make a lot of highlight plays. Kenyon Martin and Eric Bledsoe have made them a much better defensive team with their mindset. DeAndre Jordan has to raise his game and be a force inside against the Memphis big men. I think Caron Butler's matchup with Rudy Gay is also going to be important.
Ultimately, though, I think it's going to come down to LA's two superstars. Chris Paul has been the best player in the league in the fourth quarter over the second half of the season. He can handle the Grizzlies' defensive pressure and win games at the end as long as he's healthy. (He missed the last game of the regular season with a strained groin.)
Blake Griffin has to battle the Grizzlies inside and also make some outside shots since Memphis will be clogging the paint on defense. I think he can do it. The Clippers have the two best players in this series, and I think that's a bigger deal than having home court.
No. 2 Thunder vs. No. 7 Mavericks
Most people don't give Dallas a chance in this series. I do.
Remember, no one thought the Mavs would get past the Blazers in the first round last year. Then they went on a ridiculous roll all the way to the championship. They're not as good this year without Tyson Chandler and J.J. Barea, but they still have two guys who can get really hot in Dirk Nowitzki and Jason Terry. Dirk really showed the importance of a star raising his game in the playoffs. No one could stop him last year. He was on a mission.
That experience helps Dallas because they have veterans who know what championship basketball is all about. Jason Kidd can be ageless when the team needs him. Shawn Marion has been there before. This is a dangerous team. It would be foolish to overlook them again.
Oklahoma City still has to be the favorite because of its talent. Kevin Durant just won his third straight scoring title. Russell Westbrook was fifth in the league in scoring and is a superstar in his own right. I also think they have two other stars in James Harden, the league's best sixth man, and Serge Ibaka, the NBA's top shot-blocker.
The Thunder's weaknesses are the absence of a post-up game on offense and an inability to get stops at the end of games. You saw that in the final month of the season when they lost their last seven games against playoff teams. Westbrook can also be overconfident and take ill-advised outside shots in the halfcourt offense.
It basically comes down to Oklahoma City's athletic ability against that Dallas experience. I give the edge to the Thunder, but I think it'll be more competitive than people think.
No. 1 Spurs vs. No. 8 Jazz
San Antonio also finished with the league's best record last year, then ran smack into a matchup nightmare in Memphis. The Grizzlies were too big and strong for the Spurs and pulled off the first-round upset.
I don't think that will happen this time. The Jazz have two potent inside players in Paul Millsap and Al Jefferson. Devin Harris has been playing well at point guard, but I don't think they have the experience to compete with San Antonio.
The Spurs are a little better inside than they were last year. They're also healthier. Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili didn't have to play many minutes in the regular season because of San Antonio's depth, so they're fresh now.
Gregg Popovich deserves Coach of the Year for integrating so many young players with the championship core of Duncan, Ginobili and Tony Parker. They went 12 or 13 deep and overwhelmed opponents with their depth. That bench gave them a huge advantage.
But that's also why, to me, the Spurs are the biggest mystery of these playoffs. Every team shortens its bench in the playoffs. You only want to play about eight guys because you can't afford to play your 10th through 12th men against the other team's stars.
So how will Duncan and Ginobili respond to playing big minutes? How will all of San Antonio's young guys react to playoff pressure? Is this team truly built for playoff success?
I think the Spurs will be fine in the first round, but the second round promises to be even more interesting. Like I said, these playoffs are going to be great.
