With the World Series set to wrap up on Wednesday or Thursday, the official start to the MLB offseason is quickly drawing near.
In the previous two offseason’s the Indians wasted little time to make news. They acquired Derek Lowe from the Braves in a trade just two days after the 2011 World Series and then last offseason they acquired Yan Gomes and Mike Aviles in a trade from the Blue Jays less than a week after the completion of the 2012 World Series.
The Indians are expected to be busy this offseason with many irons in the fire in free agency and the trade market. In addition to finding suitable matches on the trade and free agent front, they also have several questions they need to address with players currently on their roster.
With that in mind, as we get set to embark on what will probably be another wild offseason for the Indians, here is an overview of the decisions the Indians need to make and key areas they need to address this offseason.
1. The Kazmir and Jimenez dilemma
This is the most important decision the Indians need to make this offseason and one which will be addressed right away. Within three days of the completion of the World Series the Indians need to officially declare whether they are picking up Ubaldo Jimenez’s $8 million mutual option for next season (they will), and then within that same timeframe he needs to decide whether to decline it (he will).
From there, assuming Jimenez declines the option, the Indians have within five days of the conclusion of the World Series to extend him a qualifying offer. The same applies to Scott Kazmir. Both are free agents, but since both were with the Indians all season the Indians are eligible for compensation (first round supplemental draft pick) on each player if they extend a $14.1 million qualifying offer to them. If the player accepts the offer, he is paid $14.1 million in 2014, but if he declines he is free to sign with any team although comes at a steep price as the signing team forfeits their first unprotected pick in the 2014 Draft.
The Indians would be wise to resign one or both of Jimenez and Kazmir since starting pitching is the most valuable commodity in the game; however, both look to be on their way to some pretty expensive deals this offseason. What the Indians do in this situation should shape the rest of their offseason.
2. The rest of the internal free agents
In addition to Jimenez and Kazmir, the Indians also have other players up for free agency such as Joe Smith, Matt Albers, Jason Giambi, and Rich Hill. Albers and Hill are not expected to be retained, although Hill might come back on a minor league deal. Giambi looks all but certain to return in some capacity next season, although his situation probably will be one of the last decisions made this offseason in order to see where he fits within the Indians roster.
Smith is another significant free agent decision to make since he has been so important to the bullpen over the years; however, he may ultimately be too expensive to retain since he is probably looking at a three year deal for $14-18 million.
3. Handing out the non-tenders
The Indians have several players up for salary arbitration this offseason, but they will likely part with a few of them to save moneys. Players in danger of being non-tendered by the December 2nd non-tender deadline include Chris Perez, Drew Stubbs, Blake Wood and Lou Marson.
Perez is heading toward a $9-10 million pay day if he reaches arbitration, so he is all but certain to be non-tendered. With the emergence of Yan Gomes the Indians will probably part ways with Marson and save the $1.5 million or so he’d cost to retain. Wood is part of a deep mix of middle relievers and they may opt to save his money and use it elsewhere. Stubbs appears to be on the fence with a non-tender and it may depend on who they are able to acquire in a trade or in free agency prior to the tender deadline.
4. Searching the trade market
This will be an offseason long area of focus as GM Chris Antonetti has probably already fielded hundreds of calls on potential trades and will receiver hundreds more over the next several months. The Indians had their organizational meetings a few weeks back in Arizona where the entire scouting staff was on hand to help prepare Antonetti for potential trade targets.
The first big flurry of rumors in the trade market will probably come at the GM Meetings in Orlando from November 11-13. That will serve as the launching off point for several deals which will be discussed prior to the beginning of the Winter Meetings in Orlando from December 9-12 where the offseason activity will likely hit its climax. The possibility also exists that like in past offseason’s he already has a deal in place but has not been able to announce it because of the gag order on news that MLB places on teams during the World Series.
The trade market may be the most efficient area for the Indians to operate as the cost to acquire players is not necessarily money, but players. The Indians have several attractive prospects they can package in deals, and it is not out of the realm of possibility the Indians trade a player or two from their major league roster (someone like Michael Bourn) if the right opportunity arises. Players like Chase Headley, David Freese, Steve Cishek, and others could be targets.
5. Finding fits in free agency
Assuming that the Indians are unable to retain any of their free agents, the Indians go into the offseason with a need to acquire or retain at least one starting pitcher, add a middle of the order bat, add a part-time platoon style bat, and add or retain a reliable backend bullpen option. If the Indians are able to resign one of Kazmir and Jimenez and then resign Smith, then their focus would shift almost completely to upgrading their lineup.
The Indians caught a break last offseason as they had a protected first round pick and had Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn fall into their laps because teams did not want to surrender their first round picks for slightly above average players. This offseason that will not be the case since their first round pick is not protected, and they have much more limited financial resources than last offseason.
How the Indians attack free agency will probably depend on what they do on the trade market and who they resign. They may not be too active in free agency since it is an inefficient market and players can be costly to acquire for little bang for their buck. Where the Indians may be active is finding bargains and players that bring value such as Corey Hart, James Loney, David Murphy, David DeJesus, Eric Chavez and other bats of the same ilk.
6. Other roster decisions
On November 20th the Indians will need to finalize their 40-man roster. This is always an important part of the offseason roster process as the decision with which prospects to protect is a first step toward finalizing the 40-man roster for the 2014 season and identifying young players which they feel can help them very soon.
There are also other decisions the Indians need to make with what players they sign to minor league deals. They signed several last offseason and found the likes of Scott Kazmir, Ryan Raburn and Rich Hill on such deals, and will no doubt look to find bargain bin values once again.
7. Exploring extensions
Another sub plot to the offseason is which players the Indians sign to long-term extensions. Any such extension is probably on the backburner and won’t be announced until after the New Year, and going by their recent history probably would not be announced until late March or sometime in April.
The main targets for a long-term extension are Michael Brantley and Jason Kipnis to lock them up through their arbitration years and maybe buy out a year or two of their free agent years. Also, with Justin Masterson one year away from free agency, contract talks about a multi-year extension will undoubtedly heat up this offseason.
