By Matt Swartz
The debate about how
much the Cardinals would improve via the hypothetical signing of Peyton
Manning will take place in every office (probably including Rod Graves'
corner suite) from now until the day Manning's future team is decided.
That NFL-altering moment should come shortly after the beginning of the
free-agency period on March 13, which means we've got roughly a month to
hypothesize about how much the Cards would benefit from the services of
an eventual Hall of Fame quarterback nearing the end of his career
(yes, they've been down this road before).
For the
purposes of this exercise, we're ignoring the obvious physical
uncertainty surrounding Manning and his rehabilitation from neck
surgery. There was some controversy Wednesday surrounding a
radio appearance by Indianapolis Star columnist Bob
Kravitz, who has watched Manning work out and proclaimed the
following:
"The guy’s arm is a noodle -- he can’t
throw like an NFL quarterback. And by March 8, there’s no way of knowing
if he’s going to be ready or not."
That's a little
concerning, yes? But this isn't about whether the Cardinals should or
will go after Manning; that's a far more complicated question and
depends on some unknowable things about Manning's health as well as
your/their opinion of Kevin Kolb. This is simply about how much Manning
could improve the Cardinals' offense.
Here are some
stats: 4,605 yards, 31 touchdowns and nine
interceptions.
Clearly, those numbers do not belong
to Kolb. Those are Manning's hypothetical 2011 stats with the Cardinals,
according to WhatIfSports.com, which plucked a hypothetically healthy
Manning off the Colts' roster and added
him to various teams in an offseason time-killing
project.
For comparison, Kolb had 1,955 yards (in
eight-plus games, which projects to about 3,900 yards for a full season)
along with nine touchdowns and eight interceptions. John Skelton, meanwhile, had 1,913 yards, 11 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. Manning's numbers
would obviously represent a significant upgrade; they'd put him about
No. 6 in the NFL in pass efficiency, one spot behind Aaron Rodgers. To
say the Cardinals would be a better team with Aaron Rodgers-esque
production at quarterback would be a massive understatement and not at
all a surprise.
How much better? According to WhatIfSports,
with Manning in the lineup, the Cardinals would have averaged 26.6
points per game (up a full touchdown from their actual average of 19.5
with Kolb and Skelton running the offense), and that in turn would
have produced a win-category improvement of three games. That doesn't
seem like extreme improvement, but that means Peyton Manning's 2011
Cardinals would have finished (based on this statistical estimation)
11-5. For the record, that would have meant going into the playoffs as
no worse than the No. 4 seed rather than sitting at
home at 8-8.
It should be noted that the projection was for
the 2011 season rather than the 2012 one -- which is where the Cards are focusing their attention now -- and assumed Manning continued at his
2010 production level with no injuries or adjustments to a new system or anything else.
That's obviously not a realistic scenario given where things stand right
now with his rehab, his age (nearing 36) and the difficulty of learning
a new NFL offense, especially after having spent his entire career with
the same team.
But it does provide some reference
for what an average-ish year from Manning would/could do for the
Cardinals, which is exactly what most of us have been
wondering and discussing.
One more interesting tidbit from the
WhatIfSports simulation: Vegas oddsmakers (no specific sports book is
cited, but the odds appear to line up with those at Bodog) have
installed the Cardinals as 2/1 favorites for Manning's services. The
next-best bets are the Redskins at 5/2, the Dolphins at 3/1 and the Jets
at 7/2. Take that for what it's
worth.
