By Andrew Jones
FOXSportsSouth.com
January 3, 2011
If you peel away a few layers of Stanford's football season, it isn't hard to surmise that Cardinal quarterback Andrew Luck's most difficult challenge will come in tonight's Orange Bowl versus Virginia Tech.
In looking for a similar opponent to the Hokies, Oregon comes to mind. Luck faced a Ducks unit that snagged 20 interceptions, two fewer than the Hokies, and that also allowed 331 yards per game, 17 fewer than Tech. But, that Virginia Tech played a tougher nonconference schedule and in a more competitive conference are factors that can't be ignored.
Luck was 29-for-46 for 341 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions in a 52-31 loss on Oct. 2. Tonight is probably Luck's stiffest challenge, though the Heisman runner-up has his opponent's sincere respect.
"He is certainly a quality quarterback that can throw and the stats show that," Virginia Tech coach Frank Beamer said. "But the stats also show you he's a really good runner when he needs to be. I think you kind of lose that, and that's why they're such a tough team to defend."
No doubt Luck can run. He's amassed 438 yards on the ground this season and has scored three touchdowns. But Stanford isn't going to win or lose based on Luck's legs. His arm will either win the game for the Cardinal (11-1) or an opportunistic Hokies secondary will force him into enough mistakes that will open the door for the ACC champions to earn a victory.
Why should Tech (11-2) be optimistic? Just look at Luck's performances this season against the better clubs he's faced, especially away from home. He's been somewhat mortal in those contests. Here is a quick breakdown:
*In six home games, Luck has thrown 20 touchdown passes to just one interception.
*In six road games, he has thrown just eight touchdown passes against six interceptions.
*Luck has completed 67.2 percent of his pass attempts for an average of 241 yards per game on the road, while completing 73.4 percent for an average of 267 yards per game at home.
*Stanford played only three teams that finished with more than seven wins, and two were 8-5 USC and 8-5 Notre Dame. Six of the Cardinal's opponents failed to achieve winning marks and another was an FCS member.
*Against the three teams with more than seven wins, Luck converted six touchdown passes to four interceptions. In those contests, he was 68-for-102 (66 percent) for 864 yards. His overall season completion percentage is 70.4 percent.
For a signal caller's "bad" stats, those are fairly impressive, but there's enough there to lend optimism to Tech's chances at forcing the Cardinal quarterback into making some game-changing mistakes.
Even when he's somewhat on, flipping the field with Luck is possible when a defense knows how to bait quarterbacks and simply make plays, like Tech's.
However, Luck's been so impressive that he has completed a pass for at least 24 yards in every game, and for 34 or more yards in all but three. In the last four affairs, he's completed at least one pass that went for a minimum of 44 yards.
Why else should the Hokies believe they can handle Luck?
Tech has the nation's interception leader in Jayron Hosley with eight, and in it has steadily improved against the best passing quarterbacks it has faced. Here is a look at how Tech has performed against signal callers with probable NFL futures, including N.C. State's Russell Wilson, a Colorado Rockies farmhand, who likely would make an NFL roster if he went in that direction:
*Kellen Moore, Boise State (12-1), Sept. 6 - 23-for-38, 215 yards, three touchdowns, 0 interceptions.
*Russell Wilson, N.C. State (9-4), Oct. 2 - 21-for-49, 362 yards, three touchdowns, three interceptions.
*T.J. Yates, North Carolina (8-5), Nov. 13 - 18-for-33, 197 yards, no touchdowns and four interceptions.
Even against Stephen Morris of Miami on the road and versus talented Florida State quarterback E.J. Emanuel in the ACC title game, the Hokies combined to force five interceptions. And as for Wilson and Yates, Wilson has a 76-touchdown, 26-interception ratio in his career, while Yates threw just nine picks this season.
Simply put, Andrew Luck hasn't performed nearly as well on the road as he ahs at home, while Virginia Tech has improved dramatically, especially in how it fares against the more capable quarterbacks on its slate.
And with tonight's game 3,000 miles from Palo Alto, CA, and in the same stadium the Hokies dismantled Miami in November, there's no reason to believe that Tech shouldn't be favored.
Andrew Jones is in his 15th season covering the ACC.
