The Heisman Trophy race is akin to a bus tour, crisscrossing the nation
and picking up and dropping off candidates before it embarks on the
final leg of its journey to New York in
December.
Thanks to a chaotic weekend, we've now seen
what its like when the driver gets fed up with a number of passengers'
antics, kicks them off the bus and leaves them stranded out in the
middle of nowhere.
While Tajh Boyd (Clemson), Teddy
Bridgewater (Louisville), Brett Hundley (UCLA), Johnny Manziel (Texas
A&M), Zach Mettenberger (LSU), Aaron Murray (Georgia) and Bishop
Sankey (Washington), all saw their hopes take big hits, amid turmoil
came clarity.
Barring another cataclysmic turn of
events -- and after a week that saw seven Top 25 teams stumble, we can't
rule that out -- the recipient of the 79th Heisman Trophy should come
from the following group of six players, listed by the probability of
their winning:
• Marcus
Mariota QB Oregon, RS Soph.
The Heisman Forecast's
halfway winner, Mariota looks to be a lock for at the least a trip to
NYC, if not the program's first trophy, should the Ducks stay in the BCS
title race.
•Jameis
Winston, QB Florida State, RS Fr.
Two straight
redshirt freshman winners? Winston answered any questions in his
dismantling of No. 3 Clemson and has another top-10 opponent (No. 7
Miami), ahead of him.
•
AJ McCarron, QB Alabama, RS Sr.
He's fallen
off amid the lackluster portion of the schedule but has No. 13 LSU on
Nov. 9, No. 11 Auburn on Nov. 30, and potentially the SEC title game
Dec. 7, to give him a late push.
•
Bryce Petty, QB Baylor, RS Jr.
As long as
the Bears keep piling up points and staying in the title picture, Petty
will remain a viable candidate. His biggest challenge is a Southwest
Region that includes ...
•
Johnny Manziel, QB Texas A&M, RS
Soph.
He's already thrown two fewer interceptions
(seven) than a year ago and his Aggies now have two losses. But in all
likelihood one of the biggest names in the game will be at the ceremony
regardless of what happens.
•
Sean Mannion, QB Oregon State,
Jr.
Granted, Mannion has already lost to an FCS team,
but he closes with No. 2 Oregon and has six more TD passes than anyone.
He has to play the Beavers into a BCS game to be a legit
threat.
It's a list that's a little off from the
Forecaster's own in-progress ballot, which, if the season were to end
today, would go Mariota, Winston, Petty. But the point of this exercise
is to explain what's most likely to happen, not how this one particular
voter is leaning.
With that newfound sense of the
direction this trophy chase is taking, here's a look at who is rising
and who is falling going into Week 9.
He was hyped to begin the
season and delivered and while the expectations only grew heading into a
top-5 clash with Clemson, he
somehow surpassed them again. With 1,885 passing
yards, Winston is on pace to surpass 4,000 yards, a mark just one
Seminole has ever hit, 2000 Heisman winner Chris Weinke. The most
staggering part of Winston's game is his effectiveness on
third-and-long, where he's a perfect 10 for 10 for 202 yards and a
passer rating of 335.68 (the next-closest player is Duke's Brandon
Connette at 286.3). He could be in for another big day against North
Carolina State, which has already allowed 244 yards and three TDs to
Boyd and 257 and three scores vs. Wake Forest's Tanner
Price.
While other
candidates fall, Petty continues to mirror the Bears' surprising rise up
the rankings. The first-year starter, who had thrown 14 passes in 11
games entering this fall, hasn't dipped below 312 yards in a game this
season and has thrown for at least 332 in each of his last five outings.
He also leads the nation in pass efficiency (221.8) and yards per
completion (19.83). His chances hinge on a November slate of No. 15
Oklahoma, No. 10 Texas Tech and No. 19 Oklahoma State in consecutive
weeks, but for now we'll have to be content watching him vs. 2-4 Kansas,
which is 71st in FBS in total defense (402
ypg).
Like Fresno State's Derek
Carr, Lynch has Northern Illinois in the mix for BCS bowl berth, sitting
18th in the initial standings, giving both a chance for the best finish
in the voting for a player from outside the power conference since
Boise State's Kellen Moore was fourth in 2010. But Lynch is the one with
an FBS record under his belt, rushing for an 316 yards -- the most ever
by a QB -- against Central Michigan to beat the 23-year-old mark of 308
set by Stacey Robinson (also of Northern Illinois). It's unlikely he
can get to the ceremony, but Lynch is averaging 345.7 total ypg (ninth
in FBS), which is 66.4 percent of the Huskies'
offense.
Tajh Boyd's 156 yards against Florida State
were the fewest he'd thrown for in 22 games. (Richard
Shiro/Associated
Press)
It wasn't just that he
couldn't match Winston, it's that Boyd had one of the worst games of his
career on the biggest stage of his career. His 156 yards in the loss to
Florida State were the fewest he'd thrown for since Nov. 26, 2011 when
he had 83 vs. South Carolina -- a span of 22 games -- and he tossed more
interceptions (two) than TDs (one) for the first time in nine contests
dating back to last season. Unfortunately, there aren't many
opportunities to rebuild the momentum Boyd lost with one ranked opponent
remaining in the No. 20 Gamecocks on Nov. 3. He could still get the
Tigers to a BCS game as an at-large, but falling flat against the
Seminoles may be too much to overcome.
In the infancy
stages of this season it looked like the SEC had as many as four QBs
capable of winning. But with the growing unlikelihood that Manziel can
repeat and the setbacks of Murray -- he threw for 114 yards in Georgia's
loss to Vanderbilt, his lowest total in 15 games -- and Mettenberger --
three interceptions in the loss to Ole Miss -- that list of contenders
has likely dwindled to one. McCarron alone looks like the league's best
bet at a fourth trophy in five years and the league could do worse than
the poster boy of the nation's No. 1 team in Alabama, but it's one of
this race's most startling developments that so many members of the
SEC's deep QB class have all but fallen out before we hit November.
The margin
of error was slim and Bridgewater saw his team's BCS hopes and his own
Heisman hopes disintegrate at the hands of UCF. Here's where that
much-maligned Cardinals schedule hurts Bridgewater so much, because
there's no chance to get back in voters' good graces with just two games
vs. teams with winning record -- 5-1 Houston and 5-2 Cincinnati --
remaining, while Louisville's other three opponents, South Florida,
UConn and Memphis have combined record of 3-15. Seemingly a lock to pass
Elvis Dumervil (10th in '05) for the best finish every for a Cardinals
player, nothing seems certain for Bridgewater anymore.
