Heisman Forecast: Mirages or just the beginning? Plus, risers and sliders
The Heisman Trophy race has a clear front-runner after one week and an intriguing darkhorse as Georgia's Todd Gurley put on a show against Clemson and Kenny Hill had everyone drawing comparisons to Johnny Manziel as Texas &M crushed South Carolina.
But by now you'd think we'd learn our lesson when it comes to early exploits and this award.
Recent history shows us August and September domination can be a mirage. While there are the James Winstons and Robert Griffin IIIs, the case in point lies with two of the biggest early rises and slides of late, as told through the overreactions of tweets.
So who's to say in hindsight we won't snicker at those Gurley and Hill tweets as well?
Gurley has more believable staying power than Hill as the Bulldogs star was already on voters' radars the past two seasons and has a wealth of talent behind him in Georgia's backfield to take the pressure off. If a running back is going to end the quarterbacks' four-year streak of Heisman wins -- or at the least become the position's first player to be in the top two since 2009 -- Gurley looks to be the best bet.
Hill could be great, though it's one game from a guy making his starting debut, and yes, that's exactly what we saw out of the last two winners (Manziel and Jameis Winston). As for now, he's a great story and further strengthens Kevin Sumlin's reputation of working with QBs, but we won't be able to say for any certainty that Hill is a contender until at least mid-October after the Aggies face Mississippi State, No. 15 Ole Miss and No. 2 Alabama in consecutive weeks.
Before we break down the players whose hopes will rise and fall this week, here's a look at the favorites after Week 1:
No contender has a bigger stage this weekend than Mariota as the No. 3 Ducks host seventh-ranked Michigan State. With the way the Spartans typically load up to stop the run -- they gave up a grand total of 22 in Week 1's rout of Jacksonville State -- Mariota could find himself dealing with a number of man coverage situations. He had little trouble going downfield in the opening win over South Dakota, averaging 19.1 yards per completion in throwing for 267 yards before taking a seat after halftime. Nobody is expecting him to duplicate those numbers vs. Michigan State, but with the Ducks not facing another ranked opponent until Oct. 11, this is a chance for Mariota to make a serious statement in his race.
Remember him? Ineligible last season, Golson ushered in his return to the Fighting Irish with 295 yards and two TDs passing and another three rushing scores against Rice. Michigan, despite coming off a 7-6 season, presents a major test, especially on defense where it boasts a veteran linebacking corps of Jake Ryan, James Ross and Desmond Morgan. A big performance against the Wolverines could see Golson's star rise. Though if we're talking about knee-jerk reactions and the Heisman, we've been there before with Michigan-Notre Dame (see Tate Forcier)
Despite opening the year as the nation's top returning rusher, Abdullah doesn't get quite as much attention as Melvin Gordon when it comes to Big Ten RB candidates. But the Cornhusker piled up a career-high 232 on Florida Atlantic (on a staggering 11 yards per carry) and there's potential for him to get close to, if not bigger, numbers this week against McNeese State, which last year was 68th in FCS against the rush (173.2 ypg). With 3,209 career yards he's now fifth on the Cornhuskers all-time rushing list with the program's last Heisman winner, QB Eric Crouch, in his sights at 3,434 yards.
Missing the first half of the opener against Arkansas due to a suspension hurt, but so does coach Gus Malzahn's revelation that it wasn't the only time we should expect to see Marshall share the Tigers QB job. Sophomore Jeremy Johnson, who threw for 243 yards and two TDs in the first half against the Razorbacks, will have have "a bigger role," per Malzahn, who went on to say "(Johnson)'s too god a player and can help us." Creating a 1-2 punch at QB will give the Tigers offense some much-desired diversity, but it's not a situation that would seem to help Marshall's trophy case.
This wasn't a strong start for a guy chasing a leading contender in his own conference in Mariota. The Bruins' offensive line play in Week 1 against Virginia was horrendous, giving up five sacks and Hundley was continuously hurried. It resulted in one offensive touchdown -- a 6-yard run by the QB -- as Hundley went without a TD pass for just the third time in his 28 career games and the second time since the start of the 2013 season. Considering improved accuracy was a must for Hundley, going 22 of 33 (60.6) didn't help him much, either. Unfortunately, he and the Bruins will have to wait another week before reestablishing themselves as they take on Memphis, which has won four of its last 14 games.
Having a true freshman quarterback in Brad Kaaya in his debut didn't help matters, and neither did a line that couldn't provide any stability in the loss to Louisville. Johnson ran for 90 yards on 20 carries, with 45 of those yards on two carries. That could be a consistent storyline this season for Johnson, whose breakaway speed will see him break into the second and third level occasionally despite defenses loading up in the box. Kaaya's development could help, but is it going to come quickly enough to keep Johnson in this race?
