Like any good salesman, Heisman Trophy winners and contenders have to
live by one simple phrase, ABC: A-Always, B-Be,
C-Closing.
Some just do it better than
others.
In recent history, Carson Palmer (2002), Tim
Tebow ('07), Robert Griffin III ('11) and last year's winner, Johnny
Manziel, all claimed the award with late-season pushes. We've also seen
Ndamukong Suh ('09), Montee Ball and Tyrann Mathieu -- both in '11 --
and others earn trips to the ceremony largely behind similar
performances.
This season, we're seeing some
intriguing players generate some buzz with impressive runs. The
Forecaster is zeroing in on three of them and the question is: Can any
of the following do enough in November/December to book a flight to New
York?
Marshall has been the centerpiece of the Tigers' turnaround from 3-9 to
10-1 under Gus Malzahn and furthering his cause, he's been at his best
in spotlight games, averaging 289.2 yards of offense against LSU, Ole
Miss, Texas A&M and Georgia. He'll have a chance to make a major
statement if he continues that trend against No. 1 Alabama on Nov. 30
and gets Auburn to the SEC title game.
The
Case Against: If a player is going to enter the race this
later, the numbers had better be staggering. Considering the last five
QBs to win averaged 4,500 yards of total offense and 47 TDs, Marshall
won't come close. Plus, he's part of the deepest voting region, with
Jameis Winston, AJ McCarron and Teddy Bridgewater all in the
South.
The Case For:
In the 15 years of the BCS, 11 times the winner has come out
of a team to play in one of the system's games. Considering the Buckeyes
are a near-lock to be in one, even if it's as an at-large, Miller would
seem to fit the mold. If Ohio State can get to the national title game,
his odds will only increase given that seven of the last 10 winners
have played in that contest.
The Case
Against: Like Marshall, the numbers won't be there, with
Miller sitting at 2,060 total yards and 20 scores with a maximum of
three games to play. He's also missed multiple games and as
we've previously discussed, that's a death knell
for any candidacy in the modern age.
The Case
For: With 1,810 yards and two regular-season games and a bowl
ahead of him, Williams is a near-lock to become the 15th player to run
for 2,000 yards and the first since Donald Brown in '08. He's also
leading the nation in rushing yards per game by 30.7 and the last back
to hold that big of a lead was Ricky Williams in his Heisman-winning
season of 1998. It also helps that Williams has keyed a rebound year for
the Eagles, who won a combined six games the last two seasons but are
already bowl eligible.
The Case Against:
The 2,000-yard milestone doesn't mean what it used to. The
last four players to hit that mark weren't invited to the ceremony, with
the last being Larry Johnson in 2002. He can only finish the regular
season with a maximum of eight wins, which will hurt. Just four times in
the last 20 years has a player won with that many victories and it's
happened once in the last 10 seasons with Tim Tebow in
'07.
Before we focus on the players who are poised to
rise and fall in the race this week -- a list that's pairing down as
the season reaches its final weeks -- here's a look at how the voting
would likely go if it were to take place
today.
1. Jameis Winston QB Florida State,
RS Fr.
2. Johnny Manziel QB Texas A&M, RS
Soph.
3. Bryce Petty QB Baylor, RS
Jr.
*A note on Winston: While his
future remains uncertain amid sexual battery allegations -- as stated
in
greater detail here -- this voter doesn't believe
it will impact his Heisman standing until this case progresses.
Here's the devil's
advocate side of things with Winston. If he is charged with a felony, he
will be immediately suspended and ineligible due to Florida State
athletic department policy. Not that anyone benefits from that, but it
would make as a byproduct make Manziel even more of a threat to join
Archie Griffin in the two-trophy club. He can boost his chances without
any outside influences with a strong closing schedule of No. 18 LSU and
No. 8 Missouri and considering the Bayou Bengals' defensive troubles,
allowing 448.6 ypg in their three losses, Manziel should be in for
another big day.
Stanford falling to Utah
changed everything as Mariota is now in line to play in the Pac-12
Championship Game, offering him a chance to make an impression on voters
two days before ballots are due. It's key given that four of the last
five winners have taken advantage of that stage on the last weekend of
the season. Mariota, who rebounded from the loss to the Cardinal with an
efficient 288-yard, three-TD day vs. Utah should pad his stats ahead of
the Pac-12 final with matchups vs. Arizona and Oregon State, whose
defenses are ranked 56th (387.9) and 55th (387.8) respectively in total
defense.
The nation's leader in
pass efficiency (206.2) and fifth in passing yards per game (332.4),
Petty's stats are impressive and with some help, could go as far as this
race as the Bears go in their bid for an undefeated season and spot in
the BCS title game. All that being said, this is the week where it may
be derailed. Baylor is facing No. 11 Oklahoma State in Stillwater, a
place it hasn't won since 1939 and is 0-9 in the Big 12 era. The Cowboys
will be a stiff test defensively, yielding 19 points per game (14th in
FBS) and the Bears will be facing them without Petty's bodyguard in left
tackle Spencer Drango, who is out after undergoing surgery on a
ruptured disk in his back. A loss won't spoil Petty's chances of making
the ceremony, but his winning likely hinges on Baylor staying perfect.
An Iron Bowl
against Auburn, which for the first time in the 21 years of the SEC
title game will decide the West winner, will be big for McCarron, who
chances are will earn a trip to New York unless he has a catastrophic
finish. But his play and the schedule ahead of that matchup aren't doing
him any favors. He threw two interceptions last weekend against
Mississippi State -- it marked his first multi-pick game of the season
and just the second in 36 games, with the last coming on Nov. 10, 2012
vs. Texas A&M -- and won't be able to help his cause this week
in taking on FCS school Chattanooga.
