As we round toward home in the potential “Flop" columns, news out of Arizona and Florida camps is starting to dominate the headlines.
I have but one note of caution as we enter. Beware of huge walk rates.
Ubaldo Jimenez, Colorado
I still have Jimenez ranked sixth overall, so it’s not as if I’m creating a world of doom and gloom. In three years as a starter in Colorado, Jimenez has earned 46 wins while posting a composite 3.43 ERA. He averages nearly one strikeout per inning and surrenders 7.5 hits per nine innings.
However, there’s still potential for disaster each and every turn in the rotation because of his staggering walk rate of 4.0 batters per nine innings. That was evident in the second half of the 2010 season when he pitched to a 3.59 ERA with a 1.25 WHIP (had a 2.27 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in the first half). Jimenez keeps the ball in the park, and his “stuff” is too good for an all-out implosion. He’ll make you sweat.
Zack Greinke, Milwaukee
Greinke regressed markedly following his breakthrough 2009 season. His ERA soared by two full runs, as his hit and walk rates soared. Unfortunately, his strikeout punch also disappeared in his final season for the Royals (7.4 per nine IP).
He’s the latest, greatest example of the overwhelming exuberance that follows a pitcher’s shift from the American League to the National League. While it’s true that his win total likely receives a boost behind Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun and company (it has to by default, right?), I’m fearful that his 2009 heroics remain the outlier in his statistical output. Greinke moves to a more hitter-friendly ballpark, so keeping the ball up in the zone could be hazardous to your team ERA and WHIP totals.
Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers
I’m heavily invested in Kershaw for the 2011 season, so it’s possible that I’m merely running through an exercise in self-hate right here. Kershaw has overpowering and, at times, unhittable “stuff.” In two years in the rotation, the 23-year-old southpaw has earned a fantastic 2.85 ERA with 9.5 strikeouts per nine innings. He’s allowed a paltry 6.7 hits per nine innings.
Kershaw is obviously aided by pitching in a tremendous home ballpark, and I suspect that he receives more consistent offensive support in 2001. So, where’s the issue? Kershaw has walked 4.1 batters per nine innings. He did improve his control in 2010 (had 3.6 walks per nine IP), and his upside is tremendous. That walk rate still makes me nervous.
Yovani Gallardo, Milwaukee
Gallardo nearly replicated his 2009 efforts last season. His ERA and WHIP totals barely moved at all, and he amassed 200 strikeouts for the second straight year. He did so in 185 innings pitched and left start after start in the hands of his bullpen (his bullpen decides his win total). Gallardo kept the ball down effectively in 2010 (he allowed nine fewer home runs), but he continues to walk batters at an alarming rate. In his two full seasons in Milwaukee, Gallardo has walked 4.1 batters per nine innings. If Gallardo throws high in the zone again, the potential is there for his ERA and WHIP numbers to soar.
Francisco Liriano, Minnesota
I was among the first in line to trumpet the potential return to elite status for Liriano in the 2011 season. He struggled in his first full season following Tommy John surgery in 2009 (with a 5.80 ERA) and took a huge step forward in 2010, particularly in the strikeout column (201). Now more than two seasons removed from injury, all the chips seemingly fell in place for a return to his 2006 dominance.
We chuckled heartily when reports surfaced that the Twins would consider dealing Liriano if the right offer came along. Why would you deal your best option? That question may have been answered when Liriano felt discomfort in his elbow during an early spring training throwing session. While the MRI revealed no structural damage, the big flashing light now goes off when his name is mentioned. It’s possible that it’s merely a blip on the radar, as he rounds into shape for the regular season. It still leaves you uneasy as draft season kicks into high gear.
Justin Verlander, Detroit
Verlander is one of the true workhorses in the game. He regularly pitches more than 200 innings in a season and has become a better strikeout artist as he’s matured (had 8.8 strikeouts per nine IP in 2010). Verlander has won at least 17 games in four of his five complete major league seasons and will be backed by a strong lineup. His support for 2011 looks better on paper, but the Miguel Cabrera situation is worrisome.
Still, I’m moderately concerned that a regression to his 2010 first-half numbers is in the offing. Verlander pitched to a pedestrian 3.85 ERA in 17 starts despite registering a 1.15 WHIP. He’s didn’t make a lot of mistakes, but his few errors were costly. Remember, Verlander recorded a 4.40 ERA in 2008, so his 3.85 first-half efforts weren’t without precedent.
Roy Oswalt, Philadelphia
Oswalt appears as the fourth head on the pitching Mount Rushmore being erected in Philadelphia or perhaps the "Four Horsemen" for you wrestling fans. He pitched to a miniscule 1.74 ERA in 13 starts for the Phillies while recording seven wins after coming over from Houston.
Is it sustainable? Oswalt pitched to ERAs of 3.54 and 4.12 in his final two complete seasons for the Astros. I appreciate the mental difference of pitching with considerably more support behind you, but the change in ballpark is minimal, if any at all. I certainly don’t anticipate a repeat of his late 2010 heroics, nor do I suspect that he regresses to his 2009 numbers (of 4.12 ERA and 1.24 WHIP). Owners should expect and pay for numbers in line with his 2008 totals (when he had 17 wins, 3.54 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 165 strikeouts).
Trevor Cahill, Oakland
Cahill is one of the more interesting players to watch on draft boards this spring. He won 18 of his 30 starts in 2010 while generating a fabulous 2.97 ERA. Cahill allowed only 7.1 hits and 2.9 walks per nine innings pitched.
I love those splits, but remain skeptical of a repeat performance because of his dismal strikeout rate (5.4 batters per nine innings). You can’t help but love his ballpark, as Oakland-Alameda County Stadium should carry the subtitle “Where Flyballs Go To Die.” Still, pitching to that much contact leaves you exposed to potential disaster. Approach with caution.
Matt Garza, Chicago Cubs
How can a player appear on both the “sleeper” and “flop” lists? The answer is simple. You leave the ball up in the zone as frequently as Garza does, and the potential for horrific outings offsets the potential glory of moving to the National League.
He should be better upon entering the National League. Garza struck out 7.5 batters per nine innings in his final two years in Tampa Bay (though that rate dropped in 2010), and fans can reasonably anticipate a rise in that rate in 2011 in Chicago. Still, I’m fearful of a moderate regression in his walk rate (he was better in 2010) and that he continues to serve up home runs as he did in the AL East. Garza allowed 53 home runs in his final two seasons.
