For Duke football, these are the glory days.
Under head coach David Cutcliffe, the Blue Devils have won a school-record 19 games in a two-season span and received three consecutive bowl bids -- unprecedented modern-day success for the program. After an excellent 2013 season that culminated in a Chick-fil-A Bowl barnburner with Johnny Manziel and Texas A&M and Cutcliffe taking home National Coach of the Year honors, Duke regressed in 2014. However, even mentioning that nine wins served as a step back for the Blue Devils illustrates just how high Cutcliffe has elevated the program.
The most pressing question: Can Duke sustain its success? Fair or unfair, the jury is still out.
When asked if, after two successful years, he gets tired of hearing the constant resurgence discussion, Cutcliffe gave a clear answer at the ACC Kickoff a few weeks ago: "It doesn't get old because I think we're still in a big process of trying to become what we want to become. We're certainly far from arriving."
Success in college football can come in two- and three-year windows. Whether built around overachieving recruiting classes, scheduling quirks or any number of factors, both external and internal, there's a finite amount of time a school has with a certain group of players and coaches before programs are forced to reload. Or fade.
This is the situation Duke finds itself in as two of the most successful classes in school history are gone. Starting quarterback Anthony Boone, ultra-productive receiver Jamison Crowder, All-American guard and first-round draft pick Laken Tomlinson and multiple starters in an experienced front seven are no longer around.
Duke has picked up its recruiting under Cutcliffe -- the Blue Devils are eyeing a top-25 2016 class, but since 2012 they've still ranked in the bottom third recruiting-wise among ACC schools -- but it isn't recruiting so well that those losses can easily be brushed aside to make room for the next wave of talent. Such losses will likely be noticeable.
However, there are very few coaches nationally doing more with less. This season will simply help pinpoint what the new normal for Duke is under Cutcliffe: Nine- and 10-win seasons or bowl-eligible territory?
Despite personnel turnover, the Blue Devils are staring down yet another manageable schedule. For the third consecutive season, Atlantic Division powers Florida State and Clemson are not on the regular-season schedule. (In the past four meetings with the ACC's top two programs, including the 2013 ACC Championship, the Blue Devils have lost by an average of 35 points.) ACC newcomer Louisville is also not on the crossover schedule. Instead, Duke has its typical Coastal slate plus dates with Boston College and Wake Forest. That scheduling gift cannot be ignored when recognizing Duke's impressive resurgence: The Coastal Division has been down for two years, particularly Virginia Tech, and the Blue Devils' Atlantic opponents have been Wake Forest, NC State, Syracuse and Boston College.
The door remains wide open for a fourth straight bowl bid, but after two years of flirting with the national polls Duke sees itself as more.
"We've gone from 3-9 seasons to 10-win seasons," preseason All-American safety Jeremy Cash said. "That's almost unheard of. We have four and five star recruits committing early to our program. A lot has changed. Our trajectory is endless."
Filling the shoes of a quarterback that just led the program to historic heights can be difficult. That's the task at hand for Thomas Sirk, who Cutcliffe, the quarterback guru, has named as his unquestioned starter behind center.
Sirk served as Duke's 2014 version of Brandon Connette (sans the Boone injury), scoring eight rushing touchdowns on 238 yards as a short-yardage specialist. He completed 10 of his 14 passes for three touchdowns, but the passing workload will fall primarily on his shoulders moving into his redshirt junior season.
"He's in his fourth year in our system," Cutcliffe said. "We think we can run the football, which I think is important, but Thomas Sirk is a very capable quarterback. When he ruptured his Achilles (tendon in 2013), it set him back a little bit. At that time it was the end of spring practice and he solidified himself as No. 2 behind a somewhat green Anthony Boone. He was competing with him at that time. So I've reminded Thomas of that. First person you've got to compete against is yourself."
Boone started two seasons for the Blue Devils and capped his career with 6,589 total yards and 54 touchdowns, running Cutcliffe's efficiency-focused offense well enough for one division title and two bowl bids. Sirk comes in saddled with the run-first label, but an offseason that included the Peyton Manning passing camp has teammates believing he can pick up where Boone left off.
"He's really worked a lot on his arm and with his precision," Cash said. "He went down to the Peyton Manning camp and came back with a lot of tips. He's one that can hurt you really with his feet. We've seen that as the type of athlete he is. But now he's worked on his craft and has perfected his throwing motion, his precision, his accuracy."
One thing the Blue Devils are hanging their collective hat on is that the running game can help take the focus off Sirk.
Senior Shaquille Powell (618 yards, 2 TDs) and productive sophomore Shaun Wilson (598 yards, 5 TDs) return to the backfield behind a line that brings back three starters, albeit without Tomlinson. Throw in Sirk's ability to keep defenses off balance with his legs and the main question for the offense will be its ability to move the ball through the air.
"I think what we really want to do is keep running the ball even maybe a little bit more. We know Sirk can beat you with his legs, but he can also throw very accurately," preseason All-ACC center Matt Skura said. "I think what the coaches want to do this year is start implementing a little more run game, a little different sets we know we can take advantage of with a quarterback like Sirk. I think that's going to make our offense really dynamic."
Added Cutcliffe: "I've always been considered a quarterback guy. I can tell any young coach that wants to coach quarterbacks at a high level, you better maintain the ability to run the football. It's something that we couldn't do very well when we first arrived at Duke. Knew if we were going to be relevant in our league, we had to close that gap."
Cutcliffe's teams will always come with a focus on the offensive end -- for good reason. His background demands it.
It was Duke's defense, however, that finished ranked in the top-25 nationally in scoring, allowing just 21.8 points per game (marginally better than Ohio State). It was a significant step forward in terms of keeping points off the board, a five-point deduction from the 2013 unit, built around the team's ability to get off the field on third downs.
Still, those numbers are deceiving.
The Blue Devils did not, by almost any other measure, boast a top-tier defense last season. They gave up yards in bunches and finished 68th nationally in defensive efficiency (S&P+ metrics). Much of Duke's defensive damage was exacted against lesser opponents -- of the seven opponents the Blue Devils held under 20 points last season, only offense-deficient Virginia Tech and Virginia could be described as a quality opponents -- and when it did match up with top offenses the results were far from impressive.
In meetings with Georgia Tech, Pittsburgh (double overtime), North Carolina and Arizona State (bowl game), Duke gave up an average of 38.5 points per game.
Soft scheduling can only cover up so much. Defensive coordinator Jim Knowles needs his group to be better against high-quality offenses this season, especially if the offense takes a step back.
The good news for the Blue Devils' defense? The secondary is loaded with talent and experience. Starting junior corners Breon Borders and Bryon Fields are back to complement a disruptive safety corps of Cash, DeVon Edwards and DeAndre Singleton. In total, the Blue Devils more than 80 percent of their turnovers forced from last season.
Cash and Edwards were particularly productive last season, combining for an absurd 18 tackles for loss, 10 sacks, nine fumbles forced and three interception. They were the lifeblood of Knowles' 4-2-5 defense and will be once again in 2015.
"I think as a defense we define ourselves as being a very physical defense," Cash said. "At any given point our main goal is to get the ball. We have a saying: O.D.B. Stands for 'Our Dang Ball.' If the ball is in the air, we're going to go get it, or if we see a running back carrying the ball loosely, we're going to get it out. One way or another we have to win the turnover margin."
Major turnover in the front seven could make it difficult to replicate that outstanding production, though. Duke lost three starters along the defensive line in Jordan DeWalt-Ondijo, Jamal Bruce and Dezmond Johnson and both of its starting linebackers, David Helton and C.J. France, who combined for 52 career starts. Add in the losses of defensive tackle Jamal Wallace, end Jonathan Jones and 2013 starting linebacker Kelby Brown, who suffered another season-ending knee injury after missing the entire '14 campaign, and there's plenty riding on unproven talent up front.
None of this is good news for a defense that finished 94th nationally against the run a year ago.
The defensive line is stocked with upperclassmen and the linebacking corps boasts enough three- and four-star talent to keep open the possibility for improvement, but this is once again going to be a secondary-dominant defense. How many weaknesses can Cash & Co. cover up?
If Duke takes care of business through the first half of the campaign, it should be in line for a fourth consecutive bowl bid.
As previously mentioned, the schedule opens up favorably. Scheduling top-tier non-conference opponents can be a difficult and lengthy process, and once again the Blue Devils' non-ACC slate should not pose too much of a threat. Here's a look at the past few years of non-conference opponents (final S&P rankings):
Barring a significant increase from their 2014 efficiency rankings, Duke's four non-conference opponents will guarantee the Blue Devils three straight seasons of avoiding top-60 FBS programs outside of ACC regular-season play.
Northwestern is far from the 10-win team it was in 2012 -- the Wildcats managed a 5-7 record, but finished in the bottom half of the FBS in efficiency -- and if Duke can get by Pat Fitzgerald's team it should be looking at a perfect 4-0 out-of-conference record. That type of start would all but guarantee a bowl bid for Cutcliffe's program as (once again) it avoids Florida State, Clemson and Louisville.
"I think we've had the mindset we want to win the Coastal and win the ACC Championship," Skura said. "I think we've been trying to instill that mindset into all of our younger guys. ... It takes a lot of mental and physical toughness to get through a league like this."
If Duke plans to compete for another Coastal Divison crown, the heavy lifting comes early. Games against Georgia Tech (Sept. 26) and Virginia Tech (Oct. 24) loom large before closing with Miami, North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Virginia and Wake Forest, respectively.
Bowl eligibility could rest solely in Duke's winnable non-conference and crossover games against Boston College and Wake Forest, but it's difficult to envision a team that lost so much production from an overachieving team challenge for a spot in the ACC Championship.
