April 29, 2013
After 113 days of a soul-sucking lockout, a week of
frantically schedule training camp and 48 maniacally contested games,
the best time of the hockey year is finally at hand. It’s time for the
playoffs.
Ottawa’s
win over Boston on Sunday officially ended the regular season and
cemented the playoff seeds in the final edition of the Eastern and
Western conferences as we know
them.
We’re not
ordinarily prone to predictions, but playoff hockey is no ordinary
beast. It’s a war of attrition, a test of wills, a highlight of the
importance of special teams (especially the penalty kill) and a gamble
on which goalies will get
hot.
Without
further ado, here are our bold predictions for the first round of the
NHL playoffs in the chase for the most beautiful and oldest trophy in
North American professional
sports.
No. 1 Pittsburgh
Penguins vs. No. 8 New York
Islanders
Season
series: Pittsburgh won,
4-1.
The vitals: Sidelined
since suffering a broken jaw on March 30, Penguins star Sidney Crosby
began practicing Friday, although his return date has not been
determined. Even without him – and with defenseman Kris Letang battling a
leg injury -- the Pens appear to have too much firepower for the
upstart Islanders, who have some offensive talent, including John
Tavares (28 goals), but not on the Penguins' level. Only Pittsburgh’s
goaltending, with Marc-Andre Fleury, might give the Isles a chance to
steal a game, but backup Tomas Vokoun is a nice fallback option if
Fleury gets shaky.
Prediction:
Penguins in
5.
No. 2
Montreal Canadiens vs. No. 7 Ottawa
Senators
Season
series: The NHL's unique standings gave each team a 2-1-1 edge
in the season series, with each team winning a game in regulation and
one in a shootout.
The vitals:
Ottawa’s Craig Anderson led all goalies with a 1.69 goals-against
average
and .941 save percentage. The Sens have defensemen Erik Karlsson
and Jared Cowen back, but center Jason Spezza (back) is still out. The
Canadiens won the Northeast Division and have been one of the league’s
most surprising clubs behind stalwart goalie Carey Price (39 games) and
Norris Trophy candidate, P.K. Subban. The proximity of these cities and
two evenly matched rosters should make for a lengthy series. Ottawa
struggled to score, posting the lowest output of any playoff team (116
goals). That will ultimately be its
undoing.
Prediction: Canadiens
in
7.
No. 3
Washington Capitals vs. No. 6 New York
Rangers
Season
series: New York won,
2-0-1.
The vitals: Which team
do you like – the one that has made a habit of fostering lofty
expectations, only to collapse in the playoffs, or the one with the
pop-gun offense and a roster that woefully underachieved this season?
Frankly, we would not be surprised to see either of these teams win in a
long series or a rout. The teams will meet in the postseason for the
fourth time in the last five years. The higher seed has won the last
three series. The Rangers have by far, the better goaltending situation
in the Henrik Lundqvist vs. Braden Holtby matchup, but Holtby has been
sharp of late, with wins in nine of his last 10 starts. New York’s
injury-depleted blue line (Dan Girardi, Marc Staal) could be the
difference when Rocket Richard Trophy winner Alex Ovehckin comes
prowling.
Prediction: Capitals
in
7.
No. 4
Boston Bruins vs. No. 5 Toronto Maple
Leafs
Season series:
Boston won, 3-1.
The
vitals: We love the Original Six matchup but we don’t think
the Maple Leafs will come as close as the season series was, with Boston
posting two of its three wins by one goal. Boston is a team built for
the playoffs with hard-hitting players, grit, enough scoring and strong
goaltending. This is Toronto’s first playoff appearance. Nazem Kadri,
Phil Kessel, James van Riemsdyk and Joffrey Lupul gove the Leafs a
potent offense, but Patrice Bergeron, David Krejci, Milan Lucic, Tyler
Seguin, Brad Marchand and ageless Jaromir Jagr give Boston too much
forward depth for Toronto to
handle.
Prediction: Bruins in
5.
No. 1 Chicago
Blackhawks vs. No. 8 Minnesota
Wild
Season series:
Chicago won, 2-0-1.
The vitals:
There were a few matchups that could have put a scare into the
Blackhawks’ faithful. The Wild are not one of them. Minnesota lost star
Dany Heatley (shoulder surgery) for the year and the Wild played poorly
down the stretch, slipping from the Northwest Division lead to barely
qualifying for the playoffs by winning a tiebreaker with Columbus.
Following a torrid start, the Blackhawks were remarkably consistent down
the stretch, got very good goaltending from Corey Crawford and Ray
Emery and are healthy at the right time, with Patrick Sharp and Dave
Bolland returning to the lineup. Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Marian
Hossa, Duncan Keith, Nick Leddy et al give the Hawks too much firepower
for Minnesota to
handle.
Prediction: Blackhawks
in
5.
No. 2
Anaheim Ducks vs. No. 7 Detroit Red
Wings
Season series:
Detroit won, 2-1.
The
vitals: We called the Ducks a Cup contender when others were
doubting them earlier this season. We love the play of Ryan Getzlaf,
Corey Perry, Teemu Selanne and Co., and we still believe Anaheim can
contend if it can escape the first round because it has the ability to
roll four effective lines. But the first round is the rub. We like the
Wings’ Jimmy Howard better than goaltending duo of Jonas
Hiller and Viktor Fasth in this showdown. Detroit played well down the
stretch (5-2-3), and those two wondrous centers, Pavel Datsyuk and Henrik
Zetterberg, still have a trick or two up their sleeves. We’re concerned
about the Wings loss of key penalty killer Drew Miller (broken hand),
but we’re still calling the
upset.
Prediction: Red Wings in
7.
No. 3
Vancouver Canucks vs. No. 6 San Jose
Sharks
Season series:
San Jose won, 3-0.
The vitals:
While the Sharks won the season series, all three games came before the
trade deadline, when Vancouver acquired Derek Roy and got injured center
Ryan Kesler back to really solidify its second line. San Jose did some
adding of its own by acquiring Coyotes bad boy Raffi Torres at the
deadline to add an edge of nastiness to the lineup. Torres once played
for the Canucks, which adds some intrigue to this matchup. Both
goaltenders, Vancouver’s Cory Schneider and San Jose’s Antti Niemi have
been terrific this season, finishing among the NHL’s top seven in save
percentage. You wants stars? Vancouver has the Sedin twins and Kesler,
the Sharks have Patrick Marleau, Joe Thornton, Joe Pavelski and Logan
Couture. We found this series the most difficult to predict but we’re
banking on San Jose’s near invincibility at home (17-2-5) as the
difference, after it steals a game in British
Columbia.
Prediction: Sharks in
6.
No. 4
St. Louis Blues vs. No. 5 Los Angeles
Kings
Season series:
L.A. won, 3-0.
The vitals: This
may be the most physical series of the first round with two
grind-it-out teams. L.A. swept the second-seeded Blues in the second
round last year and has won eight straight in the series overall, but
the Blues were still finding their playoff legs with an up-and-coming
core last season. L.A got 26 goals from Jeff Carter this season but
goalie Jonathan Quick’s numbers are way down from his eventual Conn
Smythe-winning effort last season. St. Louis went 11-2-0 in April behind
goaltender Brian Elliott, who allowed just 16 goals in those games. We
get the sense the Blues will be primed for payback and they’ll be aided
by home-ice advantage because Quick has been poor on the road. St. Louis
was a sexy Cup pick at the start of the season and they may have found
the right magic late in the season. We’re bucking the overwhelming trend
with this pick.
Prediction:
Blues in
6.
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Craig Morgan on Twitter
