A 4-for-4 performance in the second round had us feeling much better about our NHL playoff predictions… until we looked at the conference-final matchups.
By now, you’ve no doubt heard that the four semifinalists are also the last four winners of the Stanley Cup – L.A. in 2012, Boston in 2011, Chicago in 2010 and Pittsburgh in 2009 (incidentally, Detroit, the last of the quarterfinal teams left standing, won the Cup in 2008).
All of these teams have championship mettle. All of these teams have major strengths. All of these teams have significant flaws that could derail them under the right circumstances. And that makes predictions difficult.
We wouldn’t be surprised to see any one of these teams hoist the Cup in June, but here is our take on which two teams will vie for that honor.
EASTERN CONFERENCE FINALNo. 1 Pittsburgh vs. No. 4 BostonWe’ve sent the past 24 hours trying to talk ourselves out of an upset prediction, but every time we think we have a handle on Pittsburgh’s prowess, we find reasons to doubt it.
The Penguins won all three regular-season meetings, but all were by one goal and Boston badly outshot the Penguins in the final two meetings. Pittsburgh’s special teams have been on fire in the postseason (the power play is ranked No. 1; the penalty kill is ranked No. 3) normally a harbinger of playoff success. But that success came against two teams (New York Islanders, Ottawa) that we’re convinced wouldn’t have been playoff material if not for a weak Eastern Conference (yeah, we know Ottawa got past a banged up Canadiens squad).
There are oodles of juicy storylines in this series. There's the Matt Cooke-Marc Savard angle. There’s Bruins forward Jaromir Jagr playing against the team he helped lead to two Stanley Cups. There’s Penguins forward Jarome Iginla playing against the team that though it had secured a deal for him near the trade deadline.
But what this comes down to for us is the belief that the better defensive team, and the team with the better goaltending will win. In both cases, that team is the Bruins, especially if veteran blueliners Andrew Ference and Wade Redden are healthy and ready to return to a lineup that had to rely on youngsters Matt Bartkowski and Torey Krug in the last round.
There is no questioning the Penguins’ firepower (4.27 goals per game in the playoffs) and the other worldly talents of forwards Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, but Patrice Bergeron is a terrific defensive forward, Tuukka Rask is a better goaltender than Tomas Vokoun, the Pens are shaky on their blueline and we think the Bruins’ forward depth and grit are underrated.
Boston does have a flair for the dramatic, so we’re going the distance here.
Prediction: Bruins in 7
WESTERN CONFERENCE FINALNo. 1 Chicago vs. No. 5 Los AngelesWe’re not going to hide our Blackhawk blood here. Most of you reading this are already well aware of it. Having said that, we are still obligated to call it like we see it. And we don’t like what we see.
Ever since the Blackhawks started that ridiculous 24-game streak in which they did not lose in regulation, critics have been questioning whether this roster and this style could succeed in the playoffs against a hard and heavy team.
Chicago was fortunate to draw a skating Minnesota Wild team in the first round – a team minus the talents of injured Dany Heatley. The Hawks were also fortunate to draw Detroit in the second round despite that to-the-wire, seven-game, OT finish that featured Mike Babcock’s superlative coaching effort and Jimmy Howard’s terrific goaltending. Still, Detroit’s game plan of taking away time and space while knocking the Hawks around was nearly successful, even though that is not Detroit’s strength.
Enter the, ahem, Kings of knock-around. Los Angeles has the kind of withering forecheck, forward size and defensive clamps to shut down the Blackhawks’ more skilled lineup if the Hawks’ defensemen struggle to clear the zone quickly. More ominous for the Hawks, L.A. has the best goaltender on the planet right now in Jonathan Quick. Corey Crawford has been solid in goal for Chicago, but he’s also displayed a penchant for soft goals which won’t work against L.A., a team that has held the opposition to two goals or fewer in 11 of 13 playoff games this season.
Chicago’s power play has been a mess most of the season so the Hawks likely won’t be able to count on it consistently, even if LA ends up in the box frequently. What’s also been troubling has been the absence of stars Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane (three goals combined) from the scoring column.
We know the Hawks won the regular-season series, 2-1, but we don’t put much stock in the regular season. The Hawks’ 4-0 sweep of Detroit is reason enough to toss out regular-season significance.
Two things are working in Chicago’s favor: LA is banged up, with No. 3 center Jarret Stoll still out with a concussion and plenty of players sporting unlisted injuries after two very physical series against St. Louis and San Jose. L.A. also has just one win in six road playoff games, whereas last season’s Cup champ opened all four series in opposing rinks yet still came home with a 2-0 series lead on Vancouver, St. Louis, Phoenix and New Jersey.
But the Kings are a perfect 7-0 at home and we think they’ll find a way to steal a game in Chicago. That may be all it takes.
Prediction: Kings in 6
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