For a sixth straight season, here's a healthy dose of award-winning Fantasy Revelations from the Sunday portion of NFL Week 1:
I had Kaepernick ranked conservatively in the middle teens for the season and Week 1, among quarterbacks, on the rationale he'd be a one-dimensional runner without receiver Michael Crabtree (torn Achilles) in the lineup.
In hindsight, that was a poor decision.
By extension, I had little faith in Boldin (per-season averages of 62 catches, 882 yards, five TDs from 2010-12), recapturing his dominance (from the Arizona days) with a new club at the age of 33.
For one day ... swing and a miss. (Boldin had 13 catches, 208 yards and one TD against Green Bay.)
Can you imagine the damage Kaepernick (434 total yards, three TDs) could inflict if he had a certifiable cast of receiving stars, a la Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers (333 yards passing, three TDs)? It's not like Kyle Williams, Marlon Moore or Jon Baldwin perpetually strike fear into the hearts of opposing defensive coordinators.
And what about tight end Vernon Davis, the same athletic enigma who had five games of zero or one catch during the regular season last year, with Kaepernick under center? On Sunday, Davis devastated the Packers for six catches, 98 yards and two touchdowns.
In the process, Davis might have leapfrogged a slew of tight end prospects for Week 2, after Jimmy Graham and maybe Jason Witten.
As for Kaepernick, he'll soon have a firmly entrenched spot in the top 10 QBs ... after the 49ers return from their prime-time grudge match with Seattle next Sunday.
Given the opponent (Bears), the hostile environment (Soldier Field in Chicago), the pressure of returning from a prominent injury (thanks to Hard Knocks exposure) and, oh yeah, the superb production (nine catches, 162 yards, two TDs), Green was a letter-perfect beast on Sunday.
But there are mild concerns that Green, who registered a touchdown in nine straight games last year, won't live up to his preseason No. 2 ranking, among receivers.
After all, a superstar is only as good as his supporting cast, and the other Bengals playmakers, such as BenJarvus Green-Ellis (29 total yards, one TD), Gio Bernard (30 total yards), Tyler Eifert (five catches, 47 yards), Jermaine Gresham (five catches, 35 yards) and receiver Mohamed Sanu (4 catches, 19 yards) all had pedestrian tallies against Chicago.
(That's being kind.)
On the bright side, the tight end combo of Gresham and Eifert caught all 10 of their targeted balls. But they'll need to have a more vertical impact next week, considering Green's career averages of 4.5 catches and 61 yards against the Steelers.
The Lions optimist would say that after Peterson's 78-yard touchdown run in the first quarter — his first carry of the season — he only rushed for 15 additional yards.
The pessimist would say the Lions were extremely lucky that Peterson only touched the ball 22 times (18 rushes, four catches). And that if the Vikings were truly committed to victory, in hindsight, they would have figuratively run AD into the ground.
The Lions realist would rationalize Peterson's second and third scores of the day, declaring that no human on earth could have tamed the wild bull, running downhill ... with the end zone only four yards away each time.
Put it all together, and no one would should be surprised that Peterson boasts a pair of three-TD games for Week 1 in his career (the other coming against Cleveland in 2009).
In greater context, neither O.J. Simpson, Tony Dorsett, Franco Harris nor Thurman Thomas — all Hall of Fame rushers — ever produced more than two outings of three or more touchdowns in their respective careers.
So, will Peterson end up as my top-ranked rusher for Week 2 — instead of the, um, disrespectful 3-spot from Week 1?
In the immortal words of Muskrat from TV's Deputy Dawg ... "it's possible, it's possible."
I might have more empathy for Cleveland's new head coach (Chudzinski) and offensive coordinator (noted guru Norv Turner) if the Browns had a treasure trove of playmaking options Sunday.
I might have had more understanding, from a fantasy standpoint, if the club fell into a 28-0 hole against the Dolphins and had no choice but to throw the ball 70 times — out of necessity of playing extreme catch-up with Miami.
But neither hypothetical was true, and yet, Richardson (77 total yards) logged only 15 touches against the Dolphins. The same Richardson who tallied 1,217 total yards and 12 TDs as a rookie (15 games).
The same Richardson who caught 51 balls for 367 yards last season, while posting seven outings of five-plus targets.
From a touches perspective, Sunday marked Richardson's fourth-worst pro game. From a hype standpoint, though, it might have been the most disappointing effort of his career, as he had only one carry of double-digit yardage ... and just one catch of 15-plus yards.
Don't get me wrong. It was great to see tight end Jordan Cameron (nine catches, 108 yards, 1 TD) finally announce his presence to the fantasy world — in a non-preseason game. It was also encouraging to see Cameron, Greg Little (four catches, 26 yards) and Davone Bess (five catches, 47 yards) all garner double-digit targets.
But the trio, as a group, aren't good enough to carry a so-so Browns team for a sustained period. That might help explain why Cleveland sits at 1-13 in Week 1 home openers since rejoining the NFL in 1999.
Actually, I don't know if anyone can rationalize that one.
When working for the Detroit Lions many moons ago (the Steve Mariucci era), I vividly recall a defender saying that "nobody gets better watching practice in a walking boot," an honest response to the roundabout question, Can injured players perform at a high level without practicing during the week?
Obviously, recent NFL history has exceptions to that player's general notion. However, it's still hard to envision White (two catches, 19 yards vs. New Orleans) recapturing his elite-level fantasy mojo in the very-near future, while being hobbled by a significant ankle sprain.
In one respect, the Falcons coaches, players and executives should be lauded for keeping tight-lipped about White's status heading into the opener against the Saints. It's a good example of clean gamesmanship.
But now that we've seen White play in considerable pain, while assuming a 'decoy' role between the 20s, no one should harbor any grand expectations for Roddy during September and October — short of the Falcons completely shelving him for a few games (which likely won't happen).
That peace of mind is worth something, especially to those who drafted Buffalo's Steve Johnson or San Diego's Malcom Floyd as WR4s.
The downside to that realization is twofold: White doesn't possess much trade value at this time, and Falcons wideout Harry Douglas (four catches, 93 yards on Sunday) doesn't have enough cachet to immediately start in 12-team, standard-scoring leagues.
After all, QB Matt Ryan (304 yards passing, two TDs) still has a litany of options ahead of Douglas — the hobbled White, Julio Jones (seven catches, 76 yards, one TD), Tony Gonzalez (three catches, 36 yards, one TD) and running back Steven Jackson (122 total yards).
Plus, with his enhanced profile in the Falcons offense, Douglas might even warrant the full- or part-time attention of Rams corners Cortland Finnegan or Janoris Jenkins this Sunday.
We don't usually start Revelations stanzas with rhetorical questions, but this one just sticks out like Blaine Gabbert's sore thumb.
Counting three seasons with the pass-happy Saints and two years with the desperate-for-any-type-of-passing-impact Dolphins, it's unconscionable that Bush (191 total yards vs. Minnesota) averaged only 42.2 receptions from 2008-12.
But that should all change with the Lions this season, especially if the club repeats the odd protocol of putting receiver Ryan Broyles and tailback Mikel Leshoure on the game-day inactive list — as was the case on Sunday.
Yes, Joique Bell accounted for 92 total yards and two touchdowns as Bush's primary backup against the Vikings ... but he's only one fumble-at-the-goal-line-after-needlessly-jumping-from-the-4-yard-line away from putting Leshoure back into the good graces of the Lions coaches.
So, before you dump Leshoure, or any other nonexistent playmaker from Week 1 (James Jones, Lamar Miller, Greg Jennings, Cordarrelle Patterson, Kenbrell Thompkins, Kenny Britt), remember that Bell is far from a reasonable lock for rock-solid numbers every game, or even every other week.
Plus, the odds of Lions QB Matthew Stafford passing for 357 yards and two touchdowns without any big plays from Calvin Johnson (ones that counted, at least) are staggeringly long.
By all means, Cook (seven catches, 10 targets, 141 yards vs. Arizona) should be congratulated for the most prolific outing of his pro career, including a personal-best two touchdowns.
However, it's a little too early to suggest the Rams tight end has turned a significant corner in his development ... and can be counted on for top-10 numbers at his position, every week, from this point forward.
After all, Cook only had one outing of 70-plus yards with the Titans last year; and of his last 30 games (including Sunday), he collected seven or more catches just three times.
And yet, that won't preclude impetuous fantasy owners from moving heaven and earth to land Cook (and Broncos tight end Julius Thomas) via free agency this week, given the duo's amazing athleticism and the overall dearth of premium talent at tight end.
And that's fine. Perhaps Cook was really under-utilized during his time with Tennessee, languishing in a stagnant Titans offense that was largely influenced by Jeff Fisher — now the Rams head coach.
Perhaps Cook should be considered a lock to dominate a Falcons defense that has surrendered 17 catches, 293 yards and three TDs to tight ends Zach Miller (Seahawks), Vernon Davis (49ers) and Jimmy Graham (Saints) in their last three games (including last year's playoffs).
The hallmark of a superstar fantasy back isn't his capacity for monster numbers six, seven, eight times a season — although that's certainly a welcome sight.
To me, there's an equal, or perhaps greater appreciation reserved for stars (especially tailbacks) who cross the elite-level threshold of acceptable fantasy goodness ... on days when they're mere afterthoughts, in the larger scope.
Against the Jaguars, Charles produced 100 total yards (77 rushing) and one touchdown, off just 19 touches.
He also stood out on a day when no other Chiefs playmaker registered more than 44 yards, including receiver Dwayne Bowe (four catches, 30 yards) and my down-the-road sleeper pick for PPR leagues, Donnie Avery (two catches, 11 yards, one TD).
Bottom line: With juicy matchups against the Cowboys (home) and Eagles (road) in the next 10 days, Charles' modest Sunday showing against the Jaguars will likely be his, uh, worst fantasy effort of the opening three games.
In this read-option age of the NFL, it's oddly refreshing to see Pryor rack up 329 total yards (112 rushing) and one touchdown in a pro-style offense, with a few special running plays sprinkled into the mix.
Before Pryor took the sack on 1st-and-goal in the waning moments of Colts-Raiders, I was convinced Oakland would find the end zone and pull out a game it had no business winning.
After all, tailback Darren McFadden and receiver Denarius Moore only totaled 109 yards against Indy (with one TD apiece). In most cases, that's a recipe for disaster with also-ran clubs, like the Raiders, who have averaged only 13.5 points and 261 total yards in their last four roadies (including Sunday).
Therein lies the fantasy fascination with Pryor: Even though it's hard to envision 100 rushing yards or 300 yards passing on a regular basis, he may be the only quarterback of the 25-32 group (rankings-wise) worth rostering in 12-team leagues — as the third quarterback.
Stash that upside!
10. Think of all the money we might have lost on Sunday, betting against the notion of Dolphins receivers Brandon Gibson and Brian Hartline getting double and triple the targets of a healthy Mike Wallace
Credit Browns corner Joe Haden for getting the lion's share of credit for holding Wallace to one catch and 15 yards in his Miami debut.
Or maybe the Dolphins coaching staff deserves equal praise for realizing that Wallace served a greater purpose as a decoy — allowing for Hartline (nine catches, 114 yards, one TD) and Gibson (seven catches, 77 yards) to post aesthetically pleasing numbers ... in what was largely an ugly game.
But let's have some perspective here: Last year with Pittsburgh, Wallace had a one-catch, nine-yard clunker against Cleveland, and then rallied for seven catches, 112 yards and two touchdowns against San Diego two weeks later. So, it's not like he'll end up a colossally overpaid and over-hyped bust with Miami.
He just needs some time to adjust to QB Ryan Tannehill (275 total yards, one TD), continually earn the coaches' trust and then relish the fact he won't see Haden for at least a full calendar year (barring a playoff matchup).
Last I checked, the Colts don't have anyone of Haden's caliber.
In a political context, I have heard my dad utter the phrase "You can't legislate stupidity" numerous times throughout the years.
And today, while sifting through countless replays of David shoving Jets QB Geno Smith out of bounds, one ancillary factor has become apparent:
Bucs tailback Doug Martin (64 total yards, 1 TD, one fumble) has unwittingly earned a free pass from his pedestrian outing against one of the NFL's worst run defenses last season.
Rookie quarterback EJ Manuel (173 total yards, two TDs vs. New England) should be commended for playing well enough to beat the vaunted Patriots on Sunday ... only to lose in the final seconds.
But he's still not worthy of a start in 12- or 14-team leagues, before the bye periods kick in. The same holds true for Buffalo receivers Robert Woods (one TD catch) and T.J. Graham (zero catches).
For better or worse, the Bills' fantasy universe still revolves around receiver Steve Johnson (three catches, 39 yards, one TD), C.J. Spiller (55 total yards) and Fred Jackson (108 total yards) — one of the most underrated fantasy values on the market.
Unfortunately, the Tennessee offense and Pittsburgh running game lived down to my pregame expectations; but it's not a major deal, looking at the bigger picture.
Yes, tailback Chris Johnson only accounted for 70 yards (zero receiving), but eventually things will click with him and that offensive line — perhaps the most improved trench unit in football, thanks to the addition of guards Andy Levitre (free agency) and Chance Warmack (Round 1 pick).
As for the Steelers' rushing attack, yes, it hurts to lose Pro Bowl center Maurkice Pouncey for the season to injury. But Sunday's sad-sack output of 32 rushing yards should only strengthen the club's resolve to build around rookie Le'Veon Bell (foot sprain) and recently acquired back Felix Jones in the coming weeks.
Simply put, Isaac Redman missed his window to dominate last season.
Leave it to
Jacksonville to be on the business end of the first 28-2 final in NFL
history.
Seriously, if you're a Jaguars fan, can you
derive some pleasure from Sunday's debacle, knowing it was the first of
its kind in the league's 94-season existence?
After
all, it's not like this offense will be historically bad every
week.
As soon as Chad Henne succeeds Blaine Gabbert
(121 yards passing, zero TDs) at quarterback, and receiver Justin
Blackmon returns from suspension, and rookie Denard Robinson has the
plastic removed from his original packaging, and the Jaguars coaches
realize Maurice Jones Drew (45 rushing yards) needs the rock at least 22
times every Sunday — regardless of the score — ... when that moment
arrives, they'll be rated somewhere between "average" and
"god-awful."
Offensively speaking, it's hard to sink
any lower than 12 first downs, 178 total yards at home ... and quite
possibly the most wretched pick-six you'll see this
decade.
So, let the fantasy world embrace the good
word:
This loss to a 2-14 club
from last year shall represent the proverbial bottom of the
barrel.
This weekend of indignity
shall serve as the club's last moment of ineptitude — without
upside.
And this writer already
has Henne pegged for 260 yards and two TDs against the Raiders
next week.
OK, so Carolina doesn't fashion as many read-option looks under new O-coordinator Mike Shula, compared to former OC Rob Chudzinski (now the Browns head coach).
But still, there's no tangible defense for quarterback Cam Newton (career-low 163 yards, one TD) attempting only four passes longer than 10 yards.
So much for keeping the aggressive Seahawks on their toes, by expanding the field of play (even for 'decoy' purposes). And so much for featuring other Panthers in the passing game, outside of tight end Greg Olsen (five catches, 56 yards) and Steve Smith (six catches, 51 yards, one TD).
The lone saving grace: DeAngelo Williams (100 total yards on 20 touches), a notorious slow poke in September, is a great candidate for 125 yards and one TD next week against the Bills.
