For the second straight season, the Mets got off to a strong start. And, for the second straight year, they made the first half look like Fool's Gold, collapsing after the All-Star break. Bullpen blowups, injuries and the magic that led to all those first-half, two-out RBI dried up and regressed to the norm, contributing to the collapse.
General manager Sandy Alderson continued to revamp the farm system this offseason with the focus on 2014 and beyond. Look for several young faces to be up after May with the goal to begin the turnaround for the future in the second half of the year. The All-Star Game is the shining event scheduled for Citi Field this year, but if some of the young players start to deliver, it may not be the only game that draws some fans to the park. With Washington and Atlanta the class of the division and the Phillies a few levels above the Mets, the gutted Marlins will be the only team that allows the Mets to avoid the basement with 75 wins the expected total this year.
Offseason moves:
Re-signed David Wright to a seven-year, $122 million extension
The Face of the Franchise remains in New York. His agreeing to the long-term deal enabled Mets fans and likely members of the organization to believe that this troubled franchise may finally be heading in the right direction. Wright rebounded from an injury plagued 2011 campaign to hit .306/.391/.492 and last season and solidify his place among the league's elite third basemen. If he sustains the improvement in his contact rate (83 percent), he should be able to keep his average near the .300 range. Perhaps the only concern in the short term is that he struggled on the basepaths, going 15-for-25 when given the green light, likely eliminating the hope of a rebound back toward the 20-plus steals marks we saw from him earlier in his career.
Acquired Brandon Hicks for cash and Collin Cowgill for Jefry Marte from the A's
With Ronny Cedeno now in St. Louis, Hicks is the favorite to fill Cedeno's old role as the backup infielder. He has some pop in his bat and on-base skills, but struggles to make contact. Cowgill has a decent eye at the plate and some speed but little in the way of power. He has a clearer path to playing time in N.Y., and as of press time, could platoon with Mike Baxter in right field, Kirk Nieuwenhuis in center and/or spot Lucas Duda in left.
Acquired Josh Buck, Travis d'Arnaud, Noah Syndergaard and Wullmer Becerra from the Blue Jays for R.A. Dickey, Josh Thole and Mike Nickeas.
The Mets had held off signing Dickey to an extension during the season, and talks dragged up until the winter meetings. Alderson decided to cash in on his asset, adding an interim catcher and two solid prospects, one a top-tier catcher and the other a pitcher with major upside and a high-90s fastball. Buck should open the season as the Mets' starting catcher and has a bit of power, albeit with a low batting average. D'Arnaud, who is fully healthy after tearing a knee ligament last June, is expected to begin the season at Triple-A because if he spends the first three weeks in the minors, he will have less than the 172 days required for the year to count in full toward MLB service. The end result would be that d'Arnaud remains under the Mets control until 2019. When he is promoted to take over for Buck, he should quickly emerge as the Mets' primary catcher, and he has the tools to be a very good all-around player at his position while filling a major area of need for New York. Syndergaard is still a couple of years away from the big leagues, but has a ceiling of a No. 2 starter at the present time and has drawn comps that suggest even more room for growth depending on the development of his secondary pitches as he continues to advance. Becerra is a flier of a young player, who if he develops just adds to the haul the Mets got in the deal.
Signed Shaun Marcum and Brandon Lyon to one-year contracts.
Marcum got off to a good start last season with a 3.39 ERA and 1.17 WHIP through his first 13 starts, but an elbow injury knocked him out for more than two months, and he struggled to find his control the rest of the way. If healthy, he should be solid pitching at Citi Field and a nice back-of-the-rotation starter for the Mets. Marcum's signing gives Zack Wheeler more time to develop in the minors. Lyon completes the Mets bullpen, as he is slated to open the year in a set-up role but could get a shot at closing if Bobby Parnell falters while standing in for Frank Francisco.
Re-signed Bobby Parnell, Ike Davis and Daniel Murphy.
With impressive numbers in each of the last three seasons (xFIP: 2.54, 3.46, 3.15), Parnell has also stabilized his control (2.6 BB/9) after bouts of wildness in 2011 (4.1 BB/9). Further, he's become a groundball machine, topping out with a 61.5-percent groundball rate last season and making it very difficult for opposing hitters to beat him with the long ball. Manager Terry Collins announced Feb. 12 that Parnell will open the year as closer as Frank Francisco still has elbow stiffness. Davis hit 27 of his 32 HR after June and should have a big year in Queens as one would expect his .246 BAIP, second lowest in baseball, to rise. Murphy has become a passable second baseman, showing improved movement within the field and around the bag while playing a career-high 156 games. His slugging percent dropped while his K ratio spiked a bit even though his contact rate remained relatively similar. He is slated to open 2013 as the team's starting second baseman and possibly two-hole hitter.
Projected Lineup (RH/LH)
1. Ruben Tejada SS
2. Daniel Murphy 2B
3. David Wright 3B
4. Ike Davis 1B
5. Lucas Duda LF
6. John Buck C
7. Mike Baxter/Marlon Byrd RF
8. Kirk Nieuwenhuis/Collin Cowgill CF
With the outfield not set, what's listed here could change dramatically. Tejada assumed the leadoff role last season, and while he lacks power, he may be the best suited to hit there, based on the team's current construction. Murphy, Wright and Davis were touched on earlier and Davis could bat before Wright so the Mets go lefty-righty-lefty at 3-5. Duda is coming off a major disappointing season, where his second half struggles landed him in the minors. His wrist, fractured moving furniture this offseason is fully healthy, and he is slated to be the nearly every day left fielder with Justin Turner or maybe Zack Lutz seeing some time against southpaws. Buck is holding the job warm for d'Arnaud, while right and center field are expected to see a platoon. Baxter is most known for his catch to save Johan Santana's no-hitter; the result of which was a dislocated joint between his right collarbone and sternum, and torn rib cartilage on his right side. The injury sidelined Baxter for nearly two months and he wasn't the same when he returned. He could see at-bats against righties, as well as lead off at times, with Byrd probably beating out Andrew Brown to play against lefties. Cowgill will get a chance to play versus lefties while Nieuwenhuis, who missed the final two months of the 2012 season due to tearing the plantar fascia in his right foot, has to prove he can catch up to a mid-90s fastball, as seen by his 98 strikeouts in 282 at-bats, but is slated to open the year starting against righties.
Rotation
1. Johan Santana
2. Matt Harvey
3. Jon Niese
4. Shaun Marcum
5. Dillon Gee
CL: Bobby Parnell
There are questions about nearly each starter in the Mets rotation, but on paper they should be a solid staff. Obviously, the biggest question has to be Johan Santana. After his 134-pitch no-hitter, he finished the season with a 43:18 K:BB with an 8.27 ERA in 49 innings over his final 10 starts and opposing hitters delivered a .327/.377/.587 line against him. An ankle injury in July preceded lower back inflammation that eventually ended his season for good, but Santana is reportedly fully healthy and penciled in as the Opening Day starter. The big question is how long will he last given he has missed parts of the last four seasons as a Met. In addition, if he proves to be healthy, New York could look to deal him as they are building for the future.
Frank Francisco was originally supposed to close but he is still bothered by elbow soreness, prompting manager Terry Collins to inset Bobby Parnell into that role. Parnell has shown he can close and appears to be over the mental hurdle he has when closing in the past.
BIG QUESTIONS
1. Is the team on solid footing for the future?
Most of the past several seasons have seen any conversation about the Mets start with Bernie Madoff. This year, it's somewhat different, as owner Fred Wilpon reached a $162 million settlement last May with the trustee for the fraud victims. In addition, the team took on 12 minority ownerships at $20 million per, infusing some need capital into the organization. While that did not have an immediate impact on the team's payroll, what it did allow ownership to do was sign David Wright to a long-term extension and also buy out Jason Bay this offseason. In addition, general manager Sandy Alderson has been somewhat able to make moves that are mainly based in baseball sense rather than solely driven by finances; an example of this is the Dickey trade.
2. Is the rotation a strength or weakness?
After Johan Santana, two through four in the rotation are somewhat interchangeable, but Matt Harvey, Jon Niese and Shaun Marcum should man the 2-4 spots, respectively. Perhaps lost in the shadow of R.A. Dickey's Cy Young season was the growth Niese showed in his third full campaign in New York. In addition to lowering his walk rate (2.3 BB/9), Niese shaved 64 points from his BABIP (.285) and matched his previous best with a career-high 30 starts. The biggest difference appears to be the success of his cutter, which opposing hitters teed off on in 2011 (.364 BAA, .586 SLG), but found much less success against last season (.238 BAA, .376 SLG). A closer look at the data also shows that hitters made contact more frequently on pitches outside of the strike zone (75.2%), perhaps an indication that the BABIP improvement is sustainable with the presumably weaker contact Niese induced.
Harvey lived up to his status as either the team's No. 1 or No. 1A prospect following his late-July call up, posting a 2.73 ERA with a 70:26 K:BB and 42 hits allowed in 59.1 innings. Harvey made significant strides with his fastball command in his final month in the minors to go with his major-league-ready curveball, which led to his promotion. That fastball command was a big reason for the strikeouts and his .275 BABIP. Marcum should be a solid middle tier starter for New York. If Dillon Gee can continue the strides he made last season, he should be one of the better back-end starters in the league.
Sleeper
Bobby Parnell - Frank Francisco is no lock to get back his job even when healthy and while Brandon Lyon is nice, he lacks the upside of Parnell. Last year, Parnell reintroduced the knuckle-curve he learned from Jason Isringhausen and showed down the stretch, he is up to handling the job as closer after faltering previously. Now that he has the opportunity, he should have a real chance to keep the job.
Top Prospects
Zack Wheeler - Wheeler handled his promotion to Double-A well enough to get a taste of Buffalo at the end of the season, although his walk rate (4.4 BB/9) increased during his six-start run after the bump. The Mets have indicated plans to send him back to Triple-A for the start of 2013, following a similar development plan as Matt Harvey and making him a part of their rotation during the middle of the season. When opposing hitters make contact, they rarely hit Wheeler hard, as evidenced by an .078 ISO against last season. If he can take the necessary steps to improve his control, there is reason to believe that he can still develop into a frontline starter.
Gavin Cecchini - Cecchini was drafted 12th overall by the Mets in the 2012 draft. Some scouts felt that the team should have gone for Courtney Hawkins due to lack of true upside in Cecchini and questions as to how his bat will play down the road. However, Cecchini was viewed as a "safe" pick, and does have decent speed and is solid defensively, which should aid him as he moves up the ladder. For those considering options in dynasty leagues, the moderate ceiling makes stashing him less appealing
Brandon Nimmo - Nimmo showed a good eye at the plate while making his debut in the New York-Penn League in 2012, drawing a walk in 15 percent of his plate appearances while carrying a .372 OBP. However, he did not make contact very often (71 percent) and it may take him significantly longer to develop moving through the Mets' system after being drafted out of high school in Wyoming in 2011, which limited his experience to Legion Ball. Given the longer development path, and that his ceiling may not be overwhelmingly high anyway, rostering Nimmo may require a league format with very deep minor league reserves.
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