Here's a dry run of draft expectations when holding the No. 7 slot in 12-team leagues (standard scoring), working exclusively off an online mock draft from Friday morning.
Round 1, Pick 7 overall: Motive — Best overall player
1st option: RB Ray Rice, Ravens
2nd option: WR Calvin Johnson, Lions
3rd option: QB Drew Brees, Saints
Rationale: Only Ray Rice could tally 1,621 total yards and 10 touchdowns at the age of 25 last year ... and some fantasy pundits would view that as a sign of decline.
Yes, Rice has averaged 347 touches in the last four seasons, and yes, Bernard Pierce is an emerging force in league circles; but Rice is still a top-five asset in standard-scoring leagues.
One more thing: In Rice's career, he has amassed 2,000 total yards and 77 catches in EVERY odd-numbered campaign.
Round 2, Pick 18 overall: Motive — Best overall player
1st option: RB Chris Johnson, Titans
2nd option: QB Peyton Manning, Broncos
3rd option: WR Julio Jones, Falcons
Rationale: With Andy Levitre (free agent) and Chance Warmack (Round 1 draftee) plugged in as Tennessee's guards, the Titans' offensive line — from a road-grading, run-blocking perspective — could be the best in the AFC.
That bodes well for Chris Johnson, who averaged 122.6 total yards and 0.6 TDs last year when logging 18 or more touches (10 games).
Round 3, Pick 31 overall: Motive — Best overall player
1st option: QB Cam Newton, Panthers
2nd option: WR Andre Johnson, Texans
3rd option: WR Roddy White, Falcons
Rationale: In a real draft, I would probably pass on a quarterback for Rounds 1-5 and happily end up with either Andrew Luck, Matthew Stafford, Eli Manning or Robert Griffin in Rounds 6-8.
For today's exercise, though, I also wanted to test my Miserability Drafter's Index for passing on Andre Johnson, Roddy White, Victor Cruz, Larry Fitzgerald, Randall Cobb or Giants tailback David Wilson in Round 3.
These are the perks of mock drafting every four days — experimentation!
That said, Newton (my No. 5 QB in the preseason) racked up 292 total yards and/or multiple touchdowns in 10 consecutive games last year (Weeks 7-16).
Round 4, Pick 42 overall: Motive — Best receiver or tight end
1st option: WR Marques Colston, Saints
2nd option: WR Hakeem Nicks, Giants
3rd option: TE Rob Gronkowski, Patriots
Rationale: Here are two consequences of taking Cam Newton in the previous round:
a. Marques Colston or Hakeem Nicks reluctantly get selected as a top wideout, depending on my mood. In a perfect world, they're classic WR2s.
b. To compensate for the lack of superstar power at wideout ... I'll probably end up taking six receivers — while ignoring the need for a backup tight end.
Round 5, Pick 55 overall: Motive — Best receiver or tailback
1st option: WR James Jones, Packers
2nd option: RB Ryan Mathews, Chargers
3rd option: RB Ahmad Bradshaw, Colts
Rationale: Few people would vouch for Jones' likeliness of replicating last year's 14 touchdowns. However, he crossed the PPR-elite threshold of six catches, 90 yards and/or one TD 11 times.
Round 6, Pick 66 overall: Motive — Best player available
1st option: RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Bengals
2nd option: WR Greg Jennings, Vikings
3rd option: TE Greg Olsen, Panthers
Rationale: I understand the new-toy fascination with Gio Bernard, but Green-Ellis is still top dog with the Bengals. For Weeks 11-15 last year — crunch time in fantasy circles — BenJarvus notched per-outing averages of 117 total yards and 0.6 touchdowns.
Round 7, Pick 79 overall: Motive — Best receiver or tight end
1st option: WR Greg Jennings, Vikings
2nd option: TE Greg Olsen, Panthers
3rd option: WR Tavon Austin, Rams
Round 8, Pick 90 overall: Motive — Best tailback available
1st option: RB Mikel Leshoure, Lions
2nd option: RB Gio Bernard, Bengals
3rd option: WR T.Y. Hilton, Colts
Rationale: Leshoure may be a first-rate talent, but I'm a little concerned with the following stat: Against divisional foes last season, he averaged only 67 total yards and 0.17 TDs per game. Against everybody else, Leshoure averaged 101 total yards and one touchdown per outing.
Round 9, Pick 103 overall: Motive — Best tailback ('handcuff' window)
1st option: RB Bernard Pierce, Ravens
2nd option: RB Bryce Brown, Eagles
3rd option: WR Jeremy Maclin, Eagles
Rationale: With Ray Rice in tow, Bernard Pierce (315 rushing yards for Weeks 16, 17 and the wild-card round last season) was worth the one-round reach. He's a star-in-waiting, who's only crime involves being blocked by a certifiable superstar.
Round 10, Pick 114 overall: Motive — Best receiver or tailback
1st option: WR Malcom Floyd, Chargers
2nd option: RB Ronnie Hillman, Broncos
3rd option: WR Denarius Moore, Raiders
Round 11, Pick 127 overall: Motive — Best overall player
1st option: WR Alshon Jeffery, Bears
2nd option: RB Ronnie Hillman, Broncos
3rd option: WR Justin Blackmon, Jaguars
Round 12, Pick 138 overall: Motive — Best receiver available
1st option: WR Justin Blackmon, Jaguars
2nd option: WR Michael Floyd, Cardinals
3rd option: WR Vincent Brown, Chargers
Rationale: If you have the means to do so, I highly recommend the Blackmon draft-and-stash. Yes, he'll miss the first four games to a drug suspension ... but in his final four outings last year, Blackmon (64 catches, 865 yards, five TDs in 2012) tallied 48 total targets.
Round 13, Pick 151 overall: Motive — Best tight end on the board
1st option: TE Heath Miller, Steelers
2nd option: TE Antonio Gates, Chargers
3rd option: TE Dustin Keller, Dolphins
Rationale: Normally, I'd sound the warning bell from Miller's career-best tallies of 816 yards and eight touchdowns last year — with just his second campaign of 70-plus catches. But he deserves major props for posting rock-solid and consistent numbers from Weeks 1-15.
