Here are my pre-draft, presumed-starter rankings for fantasy quarterbacks — 1 through 32:
1-8
1. Aaron Rodgers, Packers
2. Drew Brees, Saints
3. Peyton Manning, Broncos
4. Tom Brady, Patriots
5. Cam Newton, Panthers
6. Matt Ryan, Falcons
7. Matthew Stafford, Lions
8. Tony Romo, Cowboys
Quick Hitters
1. Brees (5,177 yards passing, 43 TDs last year) probably deserves the No. 1 slot heading into the preseason. But in my mind, Rodgers remains the surest annual bet for 4,700 yards and 45-plus touchdowns. The differences are quite negligible, though. Both assets should be high first-rounders in standard-scoring drafts.
2. Peyton Manning gets the slight nod over Brady, based on two factors: Denver's wideout trio of Demaryius Thomas (94 catches, 1,434 yards, 10 TDs), Eric Decker (85 catches, 1,064 yards, 13 TDs) and Wes Welker (118 catches, 1,354 yards with New England) has no peer. And from Weeks 3-11 last year, Manning posted eight straight games of 300 yards passing and/or three TD passes.
3. In 2012, Falcons QB Matt Ryan (4,719 yards passing, 33 TDs) notched 12 games of 300 yards passing and/or three touchdowns.
4. There's a wonderful upside to Matthew Stafford (4,965 yards passing) accounting for only 24 touchdowns last year (four rushing): He'll likely be available to owners seeking an elite quarterback in Round 4.
9-16
9. Andrew Luck, Colts
10. Eli Manning, Giants
11. Andy Dalton, Bengals
12. Colin Kaepernick, 49ers
13. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers
14. Jay Cutler, Bears
15. Robert Griffin III, Redskins
16. Josh Freeman, Buccaneers
Quick Hitters
1. Luck's esteemed ranking might have some wild fluctuations between now and August. On the positive side, he eclipsed the weekly QB-elite threshold of 275 total yards and/or three touchdowns nine times last year. On the down side, Luck failed to throw a TD pass four times. The addition of Darrius Heyward-Bey pushes him into the top 10 — for now.
2. Kaepernick's top-12 ranking comes on the assumption that he won't rush for 181 yards and two touchdowns every week this season — his numbers against the Packers in the playoffs. However, I do expect him to be a minimum lock, on average, for 263 yards and two touchdowns — his passing numbers against Green Bay.
3. If Griffin (4,044 total yards, 27 TDs last year) was fully healthy entering the season, he'd be a lock for the top seven. Instead, No. 15 seems like a very safe and flexible ranking for early April.
