Fantasy Fox: Asiata, Big Ben, Maclin headline Week 9 Revelations
This week's Fantasy Revelations are a testament to the time-tested notion of riding your gut when making lineup decisions. As in:
**If you loathe the Cowboys' no-name pass defense, then don't look back on starting Cardinals QB Carson Palmer (249 yards passing, 3 TDs) amid ideal throwing conditions.
**If you believe Texans tailback Arian Foster (119 total yards, 1 TD vs. Philly) walks on water -- especially at home -- then bet the house on him crushing the Eagles.
**Or ... don't ever bench a quarterback who's enjoying a single-game or multiple-outing streak of six touchdown passes.
Here are 13 revelations from Sunday's surreal action:
1. This is why I hate fantasy football -- sometimes.
In a CBS league hosted by media friend Jeff Ritter (of Golf.com fame), Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger -- on the heels of last week's 522-yard, six-TD explosion against the Colts -- was still a free agent in our 12-team, standard-scoring and highly competitive league as of Friday night ... since the majority of owners roster only one quarterback.
(Only 15 active players per squad, which explains the reluctance of carrying two QBs. It's also a keeper league.)
So, on overnight Friday, I made a simple FAAB pitch ($1) for Big Ben in free agency, thinking he'd fall into my lap without incident, since Roethlisberger had already cleared waivers for Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.
Well, to my dismay, another owner bid $2 for Roethlisberger ... the same, uh, lightly regarded QB who now owns the NFL record for most TD passes in consecutive games (12).
Now, to be fair, my CBS team -- the lone bottom-feeder of my 2014 portfolio -- has no chance of making the six-team postseason bracket. But in a keeper league, think of the auction price Big Ben might have commanded ... after rolling the Ravens for 340 yards and six TDs on Sunday night.
All for a $2 bid.
Which brings us to this: With remaining games against the Jets, Titans, Saints, Falcons and Bengals, are you going to doubt Big Ben's capacity for at least 18 TDs passes over the next six weeks (including a bye)?
It goes without saying: Only a fool would bench Big Ben during this white-hot streak of fantasy goodness. As such, if you also own Drew Brees, Andrew Luck, Tom Brady or even Peyton Manning ... it's imperative to deal one of the studs before Week 10.
At this point in the season, fantasy owners cannot worry about stockpiling talent, in case of major injury. As we've been saying for years and years ... bench points mean absolutely squat come playoff time.
2. There's no mystery for when to play Vikings tailback Matt Asiata from this point forward:
Asiata is only a lock for monster (or even moderate) fantasy numbers when playing at home ... against non-divisional conference foes.
Don't believe me? In his three-year career, Asiata has nine total touchdowns; and all nine occurred in a three-game home span against the Eagles (66 total yards, 3 TDs in November 2013), Falcons (100 total yards, 3 TDs in September 2014) and Redskins (26 total yards, 3 TDs on Sunday).
For his other 33 career outings, Asiata holds microscopic averages of 14.4 total yards and zero TDs.
Which brings us to this: Asiata's last non-divisional conference home game comes on Nov. 13 (Nov. 30), when the Vikings host the Panthers at (presumably snowy) TCF Bank Stadium.
3. There's a long-standing golden rule in fantasy circles about never selling low on superstar players.
But in the case of Cowboys wideout Dez Bryant (2 catches, 15 yards, 1 TD vs. Arizona), that notion could be trumped by the proverbial law of diminishing returns -- especially if QB Tony Romo (multiple fractures in back) misses substantial time in the season's latter half.
Of course, you can alawys take the chance QB Brandon Weeden's Sunday stinker (185 total yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs) was a one-time thing -- against the NFL's worst pass defense (entering the day) -- and subsequently hope that Bryant resumes his standing as an elite-level receiver in London this weekend (or after Dallas's Week 11 bye).
Or, you can swallow a teaspoon-sized bite of humble pie now ... and attempt to deal Bryant for 85 cents on the dollar -- or as part of a larger blockbuster deal.
4. For this column, it doesn't make sense to over-celebrate the accomplishments of QBs Peyton Manning (438 yards passing, 2 TDs) and Tom Brady (333 yards passing, 4 TDs), tailbacks Ronnie Hillman (63 total yards, 2 TDs) and Shane Vereen (67 total yards, 1 TD) ... and pass-catchers Emmanuel Sanders (10 catches, 151 yards), Demaryius Thomas (7 catches, 127 yards), Julius Thomas (2 catches, 33 yards, 1 TD), Rob Gronkowski (9 catches, 105 yards, 1 TD), Julian Edelman (9 catches, 89 yards, 2 total TDs) and Brandon LaFell (6 catches, 53 yards, 1 TD).
After all, it would have been an absolute shocker if these signature franchises -- and Hall of Fame quarterbacks -- had sloughed through a low-action, medium-scoring outing, especially after the snow at Gillette Stadium subsided.
And Brady and Peyton certainly didn't disappoint, combining for 771 yards passing, six touchdowns and 110 pass attempts in frigid weather ... which speaks well to their down-the-road aggressiveness for the remaining weeks of the regular season.
Bottom line: Of the Patriots and Broncos listed above ... they're all automatic starters in 12-team leagues -- regardless of scoring rules.
The same holds true for Hillman and Vereen, who'll never be confused for pure-rushing dynamos like DeMarco Murray (100-yard rushing efforts from Weeks 1-8) and Alfred Morris (two TDs on Sunday).
Conversely, Vereen and Hillman wouldn't mind being lumped in with Matt Forte and Jamaal Charles -- fantasy stars who have maximized that versatility to become real-world superstars.
5. On the surface, Bengals tailback Jeremy Hill carries similar schizophrenic fantasy traits to the aforementioned Matt Asiata, given that all five of his seasonal touchdowns have occurred in home games.
But let's be honest: If/when Hill gets another unfettered shot at 20-plus touches -- due to more Gio Bernard injuries -- fantasy owners should expect production that's a reasonable facsimile of Sunday's shakedown of the Jaguars (163 total yards, 2 TDs).
Of the Bengals' next six opponents (New Orleans, Houston, Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh, Cleveland twice), the Buccaneers and Browns rank among the NFL's worst rush defenses ... and the Texans, Saints and Steelers had allowed team averages of 100-plus rushing yards per game -- entering the Week 9 action.
Plus, it's worth noting: Prior to Sunday, the Jaguars hadn't allowed a single tailback to rush for 100-plus yards this season. As part of that pre-Week 9 goodness, the Jacksonville defense had surrendered only three rushing TDs for the year.
6. I appreciate Michael Vick completing 75 percent of his throws against the Chiefs, the NFL's best pass defense entering Week 9. However, that's still no reason to roster Vick (214 total yards, 1 TD on Sunday) in 10-, 12- or even 14-team leagues.
Yes, Percy Harvin (11 catches, 129 yards) and Eric Decker (9 catches, 63 yards, 1 TD) maximized their 25 combined targets for the day. And yes, tailback Chris Johnson (101 total yards) stealthily defied Father Time for at least more football Sunday.
But we're still talking about a Jets team that has lost eight straight games ... and a New York offense that currently ranks 30th overall in scoring (17.1 points per game) -- or 7.1 points more than Sunday's effort in Kansas City.
7. From this point forward, I have minimal interest in starting either Cam Newton or Robert Griffiin III in 12-team leagues.
It's an arbitrary figure, for sure, but Newton (20 straight games) and Griffin (13 straight games) have endured a combined 33 consecutive outings without eclipsing the 300-yard passing mark; and for this season, the QBs have a grand total of two rushing TDs (both for Newton).
This isn't to say they're hopeless fantasy causes for the stretch run. It's a simple case of neither Griffin (275 total yards, 1 TD vs. Minnnesota) nor Newton (194 total yards, 1 TD vs. New Orleans on Thursday) being viable threats for 6-8 rushing scores -- reasonable estimates in previous seasons -- due to major ankle surgeries in the last nine months.
8. Rookie wideouts Mike Evans (7 catches, 11 targets, 124 yards, 2 TDs vs. Cleveland) and Martavis Bryant (3 catches, 44 yards, 2 TDs vs. Baltimore) have graduated to "automatic flex-start consideration" status in 12-team leagues, regardless of scoring.
Evans (four TDs in his last four outings) has notched seven-plus targets in six of seven games this year ... and Bryant has five TDs on the season -- despite only being on the Steelers' active roster for three games.
9. From a real-world perspective, I'll buy the national-talking-points argument that Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill (335 total yards, 3 TDs in Miami's 37-0 rout of San Diego) enjoyed his best-ever performance on Sunday.
But from a fantasy standpoint, it's hard to see the stretch-run goodness of Tannehill's monster outing, for one simple reason: Not a single Dolphins playmaker tallied more than 65 total yards against the Chargers, with tight end Charles Clay (one TD) leading that deep, but middling bunch (fantasy-wise).
Bottom line: Tannehill may be averaging 302 total yards/two TDs in his last five games ... but he's still a quarterback without a no-brainer handcuff in fantasy circles.
In other words, if you own Tannehill, Andy Dalton and Bengals wideout A.J. Green on the same team ... chances are you'll favor the Dalton-Green handcuff in a must-win game -- on the likelihood of "double-dipping" Green touchdowns.
10. After watching the Chargers' offensive debacle on Sunday -- with QB Philip Rivers (138 yards passing, zero TDs, three INTs) and RB Branden Oliver (26 total yards on 14 touches) headlining the futility -- fantasy owners should prioritize the acquisition of tailback Ryan Mathews, via trade, before San Diego's Week 11 clash with Oakland.
(The Bolts have a bye this weekend.)
Oliver and Donald Brown certainly have had their moments as fantasy backs; but Mathews (1,444 total yards, 7 TDs) remains the engine that drives San Diego's need for offensive balance. And he should be fully healthy in two weeks.
11. I loathe myself for originally thinking Doug Baldwin (5 catches, 38 yards vs. Oakland) and Jermaine Kearse (1 catch, 4 yards) would benefit the most from the Percy Harvin trade to the Jets, ignoring that neither Seahawks receiver would be ready for a starring role on a championship-worthy club.
(The offseason loss of Golden Tate might have been the Seahawks' biggest loss of the bunch.)
Instead, Harvin's absence from the Seattle offense merely cleared out more touches for running back Marshawn Lynch, who rumbled for 143 total yards (67 rushing) and two touchdowns against the Raiders.
Yes, Lynch had endured a so-so stretch from Weeks 6-8 (averaging only 66 total yards), but it wasn't enough to erase the memory of the six total TDs from Weeks 1-4 ... especially after watching the passion, drive and sheer force of his first score against Oakland on Sunday.
When viewing that clip ... Skittles is obviously driven to post a fourth consecutive season of 1,400-plus total yards and 12-plus TDs.
12. Rams-49ers might have been unwatchable from a fantasy standpoint -- save the brave souls who started the St. Louis defense (8 sacks) against San Fran's embattled offensive line. But there is some clarity with a few ancillary issues:
**Committee, schommittee ... Tre Mason (19 carries, 65 yards) shall be the Rams' go-to back from this point forward.
**Even at 34 years old, Anquan Boldin shall remain an automatic flex starter in PPR leagues. Boldin has collected six-plus targets in each of his last 16 games (including the playoffs). He also has eight touchdowns in that wonderfully consistent span.
**The fantasy gods don't want QB Colin Kaepernick (251 total yards, 1 TD) to tally a single rushing TD this year -- as evidenced by his goal-line fumble against the Rams.
**The Rams are 3-2 when QB Austin Davis (114 total yards, 1 TD vs. San Fran) attempts less than 30 passes ... and 0-3 when he goes above that seemingly arbitrary figure.
13. Eagles QB Mark Sanchez should be commended for killing two birds with one proverbial stone on Sunday.
As a highly effective reliever to the injured Nick Foles (broken collarbone), Sanchez (202 yards passing, 2 TDs vs. Houston) skillfully answered two questions that will undoubtedly haunt me on Twitter this week:
a) For chagrined Foles owners, is Sanchez worth picking up -- and potentially starting -- for the fantasy season's final four weeks (before the playoffs)?
Answer: Yes.
b) Should Jeremy Maclin (6 catches, 158 yards, 2 TDs vs. Houston) owners feel obligated to trade one of fantasy's most explosive receiving dynamos -- even though the Eagles wideout has collected 345 yards and four TDs over the last two weeks?
Answer: Yes ... but only if you sucker the other owners into an open-market bidding war for Maclin's services.
Jay Clemons, the 2008 Fantasy Football Writer of the Year (Fantasy Sports Writers Association), can be reached via Twitter, day or night, at @FOX_JayClemons.
