Random dribbles on predicting the NBA Finals between the Cleveland Cavaliers and Golden State Warriors:
1. Everyone is asking for my pick -- who I think will win. Am I taking the Cavs in six? Or the Warriors in seven? Will there be a sweep involved, by either team? Or will it come down to a final shot? Well, the truth is, I have no clue. How's that for some serious expert analysis?
2. Not only do I not know who will win, I don't really believe anyone who acts like they do. Are there too many double-negatives in that sentence? Probably. But these Finals have me feeling all confused.
3. My point is this: Even if you think you know, you don't really know. You're picking with your heart. And that's OK. That's what fans do. That's what a lot of "experts" do, too. They're picking the team for which they are secretly rooting. But do they actually know? No. They don't. That's why they're on the sidelines. The real pros, the actual athletes, don't get caught up in that stuff.
4. There will come a time when I provide some real analysis. There will come a time when I break down the matchups, the stats, the series -- and make a real prediction. I won't feel good about it, but my job title sort of calls for it. Right now, I mostly just go on the radio and say what fans want to hear.
5. If I'm on the Cleveland airwaves, I typically say Cavs in six. If I'm on in San Francisco or Oakland, I might say something else. Pretty soon, I'll make a firm decision and stick to it. But I won't like it. And at the end of the Finals, I might even deny it.
6. All that really matters is this is an intriguing matchup between two franchises that are starving for a championship. The Cavs have never won one. The Warriors got to the Finals once, in 1975, and won. My guess is not many of today's Warriors fans remember that. My guess is no one younger than the age of 62 remembers it, actually.
7. That's a joke, and I'm sure I'll get a tweet or email from someone younger than 62 who remembers. But the idea remains the same: It's been a doggone long time since either of these teams had a real chance. You never know what tomorrow will bring (injuries, trades, free agency, etc.), so your best bet is to capitalize now.
8. LeBron James often makes me feel like the Cavs have the edge. It's tough to pick against that guy. A lot of people did when the Cavs were 19-20, and look at how that's turned out. Since then, in my opinion, the Cavs have been the best team in the league.
9. But then you have to consider there isn't much depth now without Kevin Love (and yes, Anderson Varejao). You also have to consider that Kyrie Irving is hobbling. And you should throw in the fact the Warriors have been unbelievable in nearly every facet of the game. It really is tough to find a weakness. They can shoot, they can defend, they can play any style or tempo. The only thing they lack is Finals experience -- as no one on their roster has ever made it this far.
10. Then again, outside of LeBron, no one who actually plays much for the Cavs has been here before, either. Irving, Tristan Thompson and Matthew Dellavedova are all in their first trip to the postseason. James Jones is a nice rotation guy, and he's won two titles. But other ring-holders, such as Kendrick Perkins, Shawn Marion and Mike Miller, barely get off the bench.
11. So I can think of plenty of reasons for each team to win. I can also think of reasons why each will lose. Just don't ask me to determine which is which quite yet. Fact is, I plan to take a lot more time than this to even make an educated guess. I'll need it.
