Based on available average draft position data, two shortstops are unanimous first round picks, and often are selected in the overall top five.
Which first-round shortstop do we take: Florida's Hanley Ramirez or Colorado's Troy Tulowitzki?
Tulowitzki hit .315 last year and crushed 27 home runs, which both numbers are better than Ramirez's .300 and 21. But when we look deeper into the statistics, it becomes apparent why this is such a tough choice. If we take a look at a whole platter of statistical indicators, these two guys look like carbon copies of each other.
Their walk rate (BB%), strikeout rate (K%), and line drive rate (LD%) are all indicators of future batting average and on-base percentage, while fly ball rates (FB%) and home run per fly ball rates (HR/FB) are helpful predictors of home runs. Even their infield-flyball rate (IFFB%) is very similar.
Ramirez vs. Tulowitzki projections
| Player | BB% | K% | LD% | FB% | HR/FB | FFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hanley Ramirez, Florida | 9.6 | 18.1 | 18.5 | 37.8 | 13.4 | 10.9 |
| Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado | 9.5 | 19.1 | 18.6 | 38.5 | 14.0 | 12.8 |
Tulowitzki had a 20-steal season in 2009, but that doesn't come close to Ramirez's usual output. Ramirez has two 50-steal seasons in his past, and has two more 30-steal seasons, including 32 last year.
It came down to the last category, but this is really where the only clear advantage exists when comparing these two players.
Take Ramirez first as he will contribute solidly to all five standard categories, but Tulowitzki is approved to come off the board right behind him.
Is it wise to pass on a more powerful first baseman or outfielder for one of these two middle infielders? The Marlins' Ramirez also tends to be selected just two or three spots ahead of Tulowitzki. Should we go with the crowd, or are they overlooking something about Tulowitzki?
Pujols vs. Ramirez projections
| Player | AVG | HR | R | RBI | SB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1B Albert Pujols, St. Louis | .326 | 42 | 115 | 118 | 14 |
| SS Hanley Ramirez, Florida | .314 | 26 | 105 | 105 | 32 |
First of all, both are going to be tremendous assets to a fantasy team. The two players are universally regarded as worthy of selection in the top half of the first round. And in this year's draft climate, as is typical, the shortstop position is incredibly thin.
For example, let's first compare the top shortstop to the top first baseman on their RotoWire projections.
As you can see, Pujols' projections only indicate a slightly higher average, and not that many more runs and RBI. And what Ramirez lacks in home runs he makes up for in steals. Remember, this is Albert Pujols we are comparing him to.
Now let's compare the 10th-ranked shortstop to the 10th-ranked first baseman.
Morales vs. Desmond projections
| Player | AVG | HR | R | RBI | SB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1B Kendry Morales, Los Angeles Angels | .304 | 29 | 76 | 99 | 1 |
| SS Ian Desmond, Washington | .276 | 12 | 61 | 62 | 19 |
Sure, Desmond provides some steals while Morales does not, especially while returning from a broken leg.
But Morales should also provide clear and sizeable benefits over the middle infielder. You'll have to invest a higher pick to get him over Desmond, but a Ramirez and Morales combo is much better than a Pujols and Desmond duo.
For that reason, given the scarcity of production at the position, I fully endorse going after one of these shortstops in the top five of this year's drafts.
But we don't need to dive into these numbers too much. For the point is these guys are so similar across the board that choosing between them is like choosing heads or tails. You've got even odds of taking the right guy. Until you factor in base stealing, that is.
