Catchers
Just as we have seen the past few seasons, Minnesota's Joe Mauer is consistently the first catcher off the board in fantasy drafts this spring. While its attractive to have such a good hitter at a premium position, you must invest a second round pick in order to land him. Is that a good value?
In years past, maybe. But Mauer and his Twins now play their home games in what was the worst stadium for home runs last year, so expect his power dip to continue. Mauer also looks more and more injury prone by the year, and had knee surgery this offseason. And finally, there is a solid group of catchers right behind him on the rankings, and most of them have nice upside.
After Mauer is selected, Detroit's Victor Martinez and Atlanta's Brian McCann are typically the next two catchers off the board, going back-to-back right around the 29th pick. So assuming you went elsewhere with your second round pick, and Mauer is off the board, who should you take in the third? Let's look at their RotoWire projections:
| Player | AVG | HR | RBI | R | SB |
| Victor Martinez, DET | .295 | 20 | 94 | 78 | 0 |
| Brian McCann, ATL | .292 | 24 | 89 | 67 | 3 |
Victor Martinez changed teams this offseason, moving from Boston's Fenway to Detroit's Comerica Park. Detroit's home has a reputation for being hard on hitters, but it's actually very neutral, even yielding more home runs than the average ballpark over the last three seasons. Beginning with the 2004 season, Martinez has only failed to reach 20 home runs and a .300 batting average twice, so I think he's a good bet to beat his projections above. He has had a healthy career, playing in over 127 games every season expect 2008, and will be even less of a health risk in 2011, because the Tigers plan to play him mostly at first base and designated hitter. The theme here is he's consistent, shouldn't have too much downside despite his age (32), and will help out a fantasy team in all standard categories except stolen bases.
Brian McCann has made the All-Star Game in each of the past five seasons, also speaking to his consistency. That's the reason, after all, both of these catchers are ranked so highly on fantasy boards. McCann will provide roughly the same power numbers as Martinez, right around 20-24 home runs and 80-90 RBI. But McCann strikes out nearly 50% more, so his .292 batting average projection may be optimistic.
Conclusion: So, it's the third round, Joe Mauer is off the board, and you're ready to fill your catching spot. Who do you take, Martinez of McCann? Sorry, trick question. You pick San Francisco's Buster Posey. RotoWire projections:
| Player | AVG | HR | RBI | R | SB |
| Buster Posey, SF | .314 | 21 | 81 | 76 | 1 |
A year ago, Posey was a top prospect opening up the 2010 season in Triple-A. After receiving his first 204 plate appearances in the minors, he was called up and led the feeble Giants' offense to a World Series victory. Posey hit .305 with 18 home runs, despite the two month head start he gave the rest of the league. His .333 minor league batting average and youth (age 24) indicates how much upside Posey actually has, and that's really what you should be drafting for.
Posey's floor should be about the same production that Martinez and McCann provide. And the best news? He has gone anywhere from 25th to 60th in mock drafts, so you may be able to get him in the fourth round if you're willing to chance it.
