MADISON, Wis. -- Josh Gasser won't like what's about to be written. But Wisconsin's fifth-year guard also doesn't much care for what pundits or analysts have to say about where the Badgers should be seeded when it comes to the NCAA tournament. There are many games to be played, he'll say, so let the chips fall where they may.
"The more you go through it, the more you realize it's all crap and it doesn't matter at this point in the year," Gasser said of all the so-called bracketologists. "So many things can happen. You lose two straight games and all of a sudden you're a 2 seed to a 4 seed or something. It's all about matchups anyway. It doesn't matter what seed you are."
Well, forgive me, Josh. Because I'm about to say that it does matter -- or, at least, that it should matter.
Wisconsin, at 24-2 and 12-1 in Big Ten play, is in the process of putting together one of the finest seasons in Badgers program history. UW has a full three-game lead on the entire Big Ten and should wrap up its first regular-season championship since 2008 with only a few more victories. The Badgers have taken the pressure of entering the season with more expectations than ever before and lived up to every measure of scrutiny.
If Wisconsin continues to play at such a high level and continues to win, the Badgers should be rewarded with a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament. In the moment, with five regular-season games remaining and a league tournament on the horizon, that may not be at the forefront of players' minds. But they should realize what type of an accomplishment it would represent for the program.
In the history of the NCAA tournament, Wisconsin has never earned a No. 1 seed. Yes, it is true that being a top seed does not guarantee success. Wisconsin made the Final Four last year as a No. 2 seed, and the Badgers did so in 2000 under Dick Bennett as a No. 8 seed.
Still, these instances do not come along often, so if it happens, it should be celebrated. And if Wisconsin does run the table and earns a No. 2 seed, a small measure of outrage should be warranted.
CBSSports.com released an article Friday morning that suggested Wisconsin's schedule could hold it back in the race to earn a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament. But a closer look reveals how preposterous such a statement truly is when Wisconsin stacks up against Gonzaga (27-1), which is considered the fourth No. 1 seed in many NCAA tournament projections.
Wisconsin's strength of schedule is 35, and the Badgers are 6-1 against the RPI top-50. Gonzaga's strength of schedule is 104, though the Bulldogs are 4-1 against the RPI top-50. But 13 of Gonzaga's victories have come against sub-RPI 150 teams. Only four of Wisconsin's victories have occurred against teams below 150 in the RPI.
UW still must play Maryland, Michigan State and Ohio State -- all RPI top-50 teams -- and likely would have to beat one or two of those teams in the conference tournament to win the postseason title. In total, there are six Big Ten teams with an RPI in the top 50. Outside of Gonzaga, there is not a single RPI top-50 team in the West Coast Conference.
Of course, all the numbers crunching is reserved for stat geeks and college basketball fans. Gasser and his teammates are more interested in staying in the present, which is probably how it should be.
"I don't really even think about it right now," Badgers guard Bronson Koenig said. "That's like a month away or so. I'm just worried about Minnesota."
Added Gasser: "We've just got to take care of the Big Ten regular season. Whatever happens, wherever we're seeded in the tournament, great. We'll take care of business when it gets there."
That doesn't mean the rest of us can't have some speculative fun on the team's behalf.
Controlling the ball: When No. 5 Wisconsin plays host to Minnesota at 11 a.m. Saturday, the game will represent a contrast in styles.
Minnesota leads the Big Ten in steals at 10.3 per game. No other Big Ten team is within two steals. Wisconsin, meanwhile, averages 4.7 steals per game. Minnesota's plus-5.4 turnover margin also is tops in the league.
"The thing about pressure defense is it may not look like it's doing something for a while and then all of a sudden, bam, you get three or four turnovers in a row or get teams out of sync and you can be real disruptive, which they have at times," Badgers assistant coach Gary Close said. "You've got to make them pay for it if you can. The question is being able to finish plays because a lot of times in pressure defense you don't and then you're fueling exactly what they want to do."
The Gophers (16-11, 5-9 in Big Ten play) have not matched what they accomplished last season in Richard Pitino's first year, when they finished 25-13 and won the postseason NIT. But a victory against Wisconsin would go a long way toward easing some of the team's recent pain. Minnesota lost 72-66 against Northwestern on Wednesday.
Minnesota's pressure figures to face the ultimate test in a Wisconsin team that has the best assists-to-turnovers ratio in the Big Ten (1.7) and commits the fewest turnovers per game in the country (7.5). That mark is on pace to break the NCAA single-season record for fewest turnovers per game -- a mark Wisconsin set in 2010-11.
Gasser said the team would need to remain fundamentally sound with ball fakes and pass fakes to beat the Gophers' pressure.
"We've seen it before," he said. "We've played them three times last year, so we've seen it. We're definitely going to have to work at it in practice the next few days just to get a level of comfort there because we haven't seen it this year to the level and extent that they're going to bring it at us. We've just got to be mentally ready for it, and I think we will be."
Follow Jesse Temple on Twitter
