Compared to their NBA counterparts, NFL teams cannot afford to waste a first-round pick on a talented, but unproven player with upside. Fortunately, the Carolina Panthers haven't been in that untenable position for much of the last decade.
Seven of the Panthers' 10 first-round picks since 2003 were with the club last season, led by perennial All-Pro tackle Jordan Gross, who retired after Carolina's home playoff loss to San Francisco.
Also, the majority of Panthers first-rounders are -- or likely will be -- integral contributors for years. The last three Round 1 selections have been particularly fruitful:
**2013: Defensive tackle Star Lotulelei, one of the NFL's best rookie defenders last year.
**2012: Linebacker Luke Kuechly, the reigning NFL Defensive Player of the Year.
**2011: Cam Newton, the Offensive Rookie of the Year and franchise quarterback moving forward.
But the Panthers haven't had a first-round pick this low -- 28th overall -- since 2004. In fact, they haven't had a choice in the 20s since 2007.
GM Dave Gettleman has identified three positions of need entering the draft -- wide receiver, offensive tackle and cornerback.
So what will Gettleman do when the Panthers are on the clock? Better yet, what should he do?
If the Panthers want to pacify the fans who are nervous about a shaky receiving corps (as presently constituted), they'll take a pass-catcher early on.
The last time the Panthers picked a receiver in Round 1? Rae Carruth in 1997 (the 27th overall pick); and his stats are virtually meaningless considering he's still in jail after murdering his pregnant girlfriend in 1999.
Carolina's best draft success with receivers, in recent years, entailed the third-round selection of Steve Smith in 2001 -- the franchise's all-time leading pass-catcher, who played with an enormous chip on his shoulder.
With Smith joining the Baltimore Ravens in the offseason, maybe it's time for the Panthers to address that position with more game-breaking talent.
Lucky for Carolina, 2014 may boast one of the NFL's deepest receiving classes, when it's all said and done. The two-part question then becomes: Who would be available at No. 28 ... and who wouldn't be there for the taking in Round 2?
USC's Marqise Lee is a possibility here, the result of him sliding down draft boards after a disappointing junior campaign. (To be fair, the Trojans were a chaotic mess on offense last season, especially at quarterback.)
Florida State's Kelvin Benjamin, who has reportedly drawn criticism for his work ethic and marginal route-running ability, might also be a Round 1 or 2 consideration for the Panthers.
It's tough to pass on Benjamin's physical tools. He's 6-foot-5, 240 pounds and has been impossible to cover at time.
Benjamin tallied more than 1,000 yards receiving for the Seminoles last season, and led the ACC in touchdowns (14), including the championship-clinching score against Auburn in the BCS title game. B
The downside: Benjamin is already 23 years old, but has played just two years of college football.
Benjamin would presumably be an immediate impact player as a red-zone threat -- the kind of receiver the Panthers haven't had since the days of Muhsin Muhammad.
With the O-tackle Gross retiring, the Panthers could really use some help in the trenches, particularly at tackle. Byron Bell (recently signed a contract extension) will likely hold the right spot, but the left side -- with Gross's absence -- still brings a lot of uncertainty.
This is a position of dire need for the Panthers. Protecting Newton, who had offseason ankle surgery, has to be a top priority.
The fans will want a sexier pick, like a wide receiver. But Newton can't get the ball to playmakers down the field, if he has no time to throw. A high-quality O-lineman would help make that happen.
The likely pick here seems to be Cyrus Kouandjio from Alabama, an offensive tackle with great NFL "measurables." At 6-7, 322 pounds, he was dominant for the Tide -- particularly in pass protection, allowing just 1.5 sacks in 2013.
There are questions about how ready Kouandijo is for this level, and how much he relies on his athleticism over technique; but his physical readiness shouldn't be doubted.
The Panthers could also go with Virginia's Morgan Moses. At 6-6, 314 pounds, Moses played on a bad team and didn't always have a chance to shine. There are questions about his conditioning, and that could be an issue in the long-term view.
But Moses is ready to go, and the Panthers need a tackle badly.
Oh, and Moses has already met with the Panthers three times, according to Charlotte radio show "The Mac Attack". So that possibility is very real.
That strategy makes some sense, considering it's just a tricky spot to pick in the draft.
But the Panthers can also hope that one of the better projected late-first round cornerbacks (Virginia Tech's Kyle Fuller, TCU's Jason Verrett or Ohio State's Bradley Roby) are still on the board.
Gettleman identifies this as one of the positions of need. But he's not going to take a defensive back, a wide receiver or an offensive tackle at No. 28 for the sake of simply filling a perceived hole. He wants value, as well.
For one thing, Gettleman has already proven he's willing to build a defense around a dominant front seven and not worry as much about the cornerbacks.
Thus, the club might not worry about the secondary until later in the draft or via post-draft free agency.
Obviously, the Panthers don't need a quarterback. So Gettleman is not likely to draft, say, Teddy Bridgewater if he were sitting there at No. 28.
The Panthers are pretty set at defensive tackle, as well, although Pittsburgh's Aaron Donald (one of the draft's primary risers) or Florida State's Timmy Jernigan might garner consideration, if they're still on the board (not likely).
The Panthers could also trade out of this spot. For a playoff-caliber team that needs depth along the offensive line and at receiver, trading down and adding more picks -- especially in a deep draft -- is always a good option.
