As NFL fans and fantasy owners sat down to the dinner table at Thanksgiving and played the “I’m thankful for …” game, I suspect that more than a few nods to dominating football players were tossed into the mix.
Think of the images across fantasyland.
“I’m thankful for Rodgers” is spoken while brandishing a WWE-inspired belt.
“I’m thankful for Jimmy Graham.”
“I’m thankful for ‘Gronk.’” You may need explain that Rob Gronkowski is not an animated character. Well, he’s not drawn or compute animated … we think.
Anyway, I raise my oversized coffee mug to what has been an extraordinary NFL season. I’ll raise it a second time to you for your continued support, derision and participation in this fantasy universe.
Let’s get back onto the field for this week’s final installment of “Lineup Calls.”
Click here for Harmon’s Week 12 QBs
Click here for Harmon’s Week 12 RBs
Click here for Harmon’s Week 12 WRs
Click here for Harmon’s Week 12 TEs
Tight Ends
Exclude: Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham, Antonio Gates, Tony Gonzalez
Week 12 TE Heroes
Owen Daniels at JAC: The return of Andre Johnson allows Daniels to return to his secondary role of creating mismatches and outpacing linebackers down the seams. I understand the universal reticence to endorse Matt Leinart as a fantasy stud against what has been a stingy defense in Jacksonville. The run-first Texans will still keep the line moving with Arian Foster and Ben Tate (54% of their plays are runs), thereby affording Leinart opportunities in the short and intermediate game.
Daniels has caught multiple passes in nine straight games, producing five games with at least 60 receiving yards. New starting quarterbacks in new spots trust their tight ends. You can do the same here. Jacksonville allows 6.1 receptions and 59.5 yards per game to tight ends.
Heath Miller at KC: Miller has been a solid contributor to fantasy lineups this season. He’s recorded three or more receptions in all but one of the Steelers’ first 10 games and has eclipsed 40 receiving yards on six occasions.
The Chiefs have surrendered the fourth-most points to tight ends, including seven touchdowns.
Kellen Winslow at TEN: Winslow rates as one of the most frustrating options at the tight end position. He’s amassed a huge reception count this season (eight games with at least four receptions), though he has produced only five games with more than 40 receiving yards (132 yards last week). Still, he rates a play this week against the Titans. Tennessee has surrendered the seventh-most points to tight ends (4.8 receptions and 63 yards per game).
Fred Davis at SEA: Davis remains one of the most consistent and effective options at the position. He’s topped 40 receiving yards in four of his past five games, including three efforts of at least 80 receiving yards. We know two things about this Washington offense. First, you can’t trust any member of the running back committee. Second, Rex Grossman is going to put the ball up frequently. Tight ends are averaging 5.5 receptions and 58.6 receiving yards against the Seahawks.
Brent Celek vs. NE: The former fantasy hero has experienced a resurgence in the past five weeks, producing 28 receptions for 267 yards. He’ll remain a fixture in the passing attack for Vince Young against the Patriots.
New England has been stingy in the red zone, of course, but tight ends have produced solid numbers between the 20s (4.3 receptions and 50.8 receiving yards per game).
Jake Ballard at NO: Ballard has been slowed in the past two weeks, registering a total of four receptions for 48 yards, following his meteoric rise in the New York offense. I’m cautiously optimistic that he rebounds this week against the Saints in a spotlight game. New Orleans has allowed the 10th-most points to tight ends (4.3 receptions, 51.4 yards and 0.6 touchdowns per game).
Week 12 TE Flop Alerts
Jermaine Gresham vs. CLE: Fantasy owners nearly received a big lift from Gresham in Week 11, but he was victimized by the “Calvin Johnson rule.” He finished the game with three receptions for 48 yards, his seventh game with at least three receptions this season. He rates as a high-TE2 this week against the heretofore stout Cleveland pass defense. I recognize that Gresham scored in Week 1 against this unit, producing six receptions for 58 yards. I’m still not expecting fireworks in the rematch.
Greg Olsen at IND: It looks like an easy score on paper, right? After all, it’s the Indianapolis defense (insert your witticisms here). However, tight ends haven’t fared terribly well against the Colts this season. In fact, the Colts have allowed the seventh-fewest points to tight ends.
Olsen remains a decent play in PPR leagues, as tight ends have averaged 4.6 receptions per game. However, opponents have been limited to 40.1 yards and 0.4 touchdown receptions per contest.
Week 12 TE Ninja Alerts
Kevin Boss vs. CHI: Chicago’s struggles against tight ends have been well-documented during the 2011 season. Go watch the tape of Jermichael Finley running free in the Chicago secondary. If you’re a Finley owner, I apologize for bringing up that distant memory.
The Bears have allowed the most points to tight ends in 2011, surrendering 6.6 receptions, 69.4 yards and 0.8 touchdowns per game. With the Oakland receiving corps decimated by injuries, Carson Palmer will need to work his tight end into the mix.
Scott Chandler vs. NYJ: The New York pass defense has been stout on the edges, as you’d expect, but tight ends have found soft spots in the middle of the field. Opponents are averaging 5.2 receptions and 64.7 receiving yards per game. Chandler was a secondary option in the first meeting between these teams, but injuries in the receiving corps, not to mention the loss of Fred Jackson, elevate him for this contest.
Jacob Tamme vs. CAR: I know. You don’t want to trust Tamme. I can’t say that I blame you. Still, if there’s one player in the Indianapolis passing game to look at down the stretch in Indianapolis, it’s Tamme. He caught six passes for 75 yards against the Jaguars in Week 10, and I expect him to be active against this Carolina secondary. The Panthers have allowed the 11th-most points to tight ends (4.5 receptions and 62.8 yards per game).
Kickers
Week 12 Kicker Plug-In Plays
Stephen Hauschka vs. WAS: Opposing kickers have tallied 24 field goals against the Redskins this season. Marshawn Lynch continues to find success on the ground, but inconsistency in the Seattle passing game will stall drives and force Hauschka into action.
Josh Brown vs. ARI: The Cardinals rank 22nd in total defense at 23.6 yards allowed per game. Opposing kickers have logged 21 field goals against the Cardinals, including three kicked by Brown in the first meeting between these teams. He’ll be active again in this home tilt.
Matt Bryant vs. MIN: I’ll also ride the current hot streak turned in by Bryant. The Atlanta kicker has converted three field goals in back-to-back games and rates a top play this week. Minnesota has allowed the second-most points to kickers, fueled by 20 field goal conversions (six of which came from distances of at least 50 yards). The return of Julio Jones spreads the injury-ravaged Minnesota secondary think and affords Matt Ryan big-play potential.
Week 12 Kickers on the Pine
Stephen Gostkowski vs. PHI: The Eagles have surrendered the third-fewest points to opposing kickers. Opponents have kicked a combined 10 field goals this season. I don’t doubt that Tom Brady and company continue to pile points on the board this week. It’s just that PAT conversions don’t count for much.
Alex Henery at NE: Similarly, the Patriots have allowed just 13 field goal conversions this season. The much-maligned New England defense has allowed opponents to move the ball fairly well, but scoring chances have been few. I’m reticent to endorse Henery behind Vince Young on the road this week. Henery has converted multiple field goals in just four games this season. You’re not at risk of a shutout, but a marginal contribution is in the offing.
Nick Folk vs. BUF: Finally, I turn to Folk and the Jets’ matchup against the Bills. Opposing kickers have converted just 12 field goals this season. I know. The Bills have surrendered 25.3 points per game, so there’s little risk of a shutout in this matchup. However, PAT conversions hardly move the bottom line.
Defenses
Week 12 Defense Plug-In Plays
Buffalo at NYJ: The Bills are hardly a world-beating defense, ranked 26th in total defense at 25.3 points allowed per game. However, this unit has also effectively gambled at times to produce a high turnover count. The fits well with Mark Sanchez’s struggles with ball control and the myriad injuries affecting the New York offensive line (26 sacks allowed and 20 turnovers).
St. Louis vs. ARI: The Rams quietly lead the NFL with 37 sacks. The Cardinals have surrendered 33 sacks this season with 20 turnovers. It’s not a game that most will monitor outside of the output turned in by Lloyd, Fitzgerald, Wells and Jackson, but the Rams are a sneak plug-in option if your usual defense faces one of the league’s offensive juggernauts.
New England vs. PHI: The Patriots quietly rank in the top 10 in total defense at 20.3 points allowed per game. Much has been made of opponents’ ability to move the ball against the secondary, but Vince Wilfork and company have stymied opponents in the red zone. I anticipate more of the same in this contest. Vince Young will be pressed to keep pace with Tom Brady and the New England offense. That portends to multiple turnover and sack opportunities.
Denver at SD: The Broncos have been playing fantastic defensive football in recent weeks. The combination of Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil has terrorized quarterbacks, and Champ Bailey remains a beast in coverage. I don’t suggest that Philip Rivers and this offense will be shut down entirely. However, the San Diego offense has become a veritable turnstile and turnovers have been frequent.
Washington vs. SEA: I’m tossing up both defenses as “Ninja” options this week. The Redskins are tied for sixth in sacks with 30, so Tarvaris Jackson will face persistent pressure. On the other side, Seattle will have opportunities in the secondary against the free-wheeling, gun slinging Rex Grossman.
Week 12 Defenses on the Pine
New York Giants at NO: The Giants have been a fairly maddening defensive option for fantasy owners to date. The raw stats speak to the potential of the New York pass rush. However, the quick trigger of Drew Brees makes it unlikely that the Giants will be able to raise that tally. Opposing defenses have averaged the fourth-fewest points (tied) against the Saints.
Chicago at OAK: The Bears face a daunting task on the road in Week 12. Aside from the questions associated by Caleb Hanie’s insertion under center, the Bears must contend with a run-heavy Oakland squad (Bush has carried the ball 30 times in back-to-back weeks). Opponents have averaged 4.9 yards per carry against the Chicago front, so the defensive interior will be challenged.
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