Just a week or two ago, it seemed that nothing could stop Felix Hernandez from winning his second Cy Young Award.
That was just the storyline, and storylines can have a powerful effect on the minds of the voters.
Still, I didn't think the story was over. "I think it's still wide open," I wrote, "with the result hinging on whomever pitches even more brilliantly over these next two weeks."
Well, the storyline changed some Tuesday night:
Last week, I identified Hernandez, Kluber, and Jon Lester as viable candidates.
Well, Lester pitched quite well in his next start. Kluber pitched well in his next start, striking out 14 batters for the second straight start. And Felix Hernandez has pitched twice since then, once brilliantly ... and now, once badly. And at this point, I just don't see the argument for King Felix.
In every important statistic, Kluber and Hernandez are essentially dead even: innings, strikeouts, walks, and home runs allowed.
So then what do we look at? We look at ballparks. Hernandez pitches in a pitcher-friendly ballpark, Kluber doesn't. We look at the opposing hitters. Statistically, Hernandez has faced weaker hitters than Kluber (granted, which might be the ballparks, and we don't want to double-count). We look at the fielders behind them. As near as we can tell, the Mariners' defense has been significantly better than the Indians'.
I'm not ready to say that Corey Kluber is the best pitcher in the American League. But he sure seems to be having the best season. And unless he gets badly hammered in his last start on Saturday, that's not going to change.
