Do you believe that contract years make players hungrier and better?
I’m not sure I do, but if it’s your cup of tea, here’s a list of some of baseball’s top post-2011 free agents. Those with reasonable club options who are likely to be picked up, like Cincinnati second baseman Brandon Phillips and Cleveland outfielder Grady Sizemore, are excluded.
Albert Pujols, 1B, St. Louis
Pujols appears headed for free agency after he and the Cardinals failed to come to an agreement before this week’s Pujols-imposed deadline. Can you imagine if he actually steps up his game in advance of a new contract? He might hit .486 with 98 homers and 317 RBI.
Prince Fielder, 1B, Milwuakee
Fielder had an off year in 2010, batting .261 with 32 home runs and 83 RBI after averaging .288-43-99 over the previous three seasons. Fielder will turn 27 in May, meaning that he should be entering the prime of his career. It seems likely that he’ll rebound this season, contract year or not.
Jose Reyes, SS, New York Mets
Reyes missed most of 2009 because of injury, and only played 133 games in 2010. So his health issues are a worry for both real-life owners and their fantasy counterparts. But how can we forget that from 2006-08, Reyes posted a .292 BA while averaging 16 homers, 69 RBI, 118 runs and 66 stolen bases? If he has a season like that in 2011, he’ll be one of fantasy’s top five players, and make himself $100 million.
Rafael Furcal, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers
Furcal barely made the cut for this article, as his contract calls for a $12M club option for 2012. He’s had health problems of his own, playing less than 100 games in both 2008 and 2010. When on the field, Furcal is a run-scoring force. He’s averaged 110 runs per 162 games in his career. He also still has good speed, and hits a decent number of home runs for a middle infielder (had eight homers in 97 games last season). A full season from Furcal could give you 12 homers, 110 runs and 20-30 stolen bases. Let’s hope he makes a big contract push.
Aramis Ramirez, 3B, Chicago Cubs
Let’s assume that the Cubs won’t pick up Ramirez’s $16M club option. He struggled with a thumb injury during the first half of 2010. But he came on strong in the second half of the season, batting .288 with 19 home runs and 60 RBI after July 1. If Ramirez can stay healthy, he could be in line for a big payday. In the wasteland of fantasy third basemen, he’s still a top-10 fantasy pick.
Carlos Beltran, OF, New York Mets
Can Beltran steal bases anymore? Is he just an OK hitter now, or can he still be a really good one? The jury is out after his performance in 64 games last year, and the feeling here is that he’s too risky to draft as anything more than a fifth outfielder in standard leagues. Expect him to be an ex-Mets player nine months from now.
Ryan Ludwick, OF, San Diego
PETCO Park is just about the worst home park for a hitter’s contract drive, but that’s Ludwick’s lot in life right now. He probably wouldn’t reach his 2008 heights in any locale, so a big push this season probably means 25 homers, if that.
Juan Pierre, OF, Chicago White Sox
Pierre led the majors in stolen bases last season by a lot – he swiped 68 bags, while second-place Michael Bourn had 52. Speed demons like Pierre don’t often get big contracts – unless they contribute in other ways, like Carl Crawford – but another solid season could set him up for one final multi-year contract.
Chris Carpenter, SP, St. Louis
Carpenter is about to turn 36, and it’s unclear if the mid-market Cards will pick up his $15M club option after the season. He’s still a pretty good pitcher, and one more strong season in St. Louis can be his ticket to a three-year deal somewhere. With Dave Duncan as his pitching coach, expect more of the same this season from Carpenter. More of his same is pretty good.
Roy Oswalt, SP, Philadelphia
Oswalt has a $16M club option, and with the Phillies needing to pay big bucks to Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, etc., beyond this season, it’s doubtful that they’ll keep him around at that rate. Oswalt will turn 34 in August, and a big season in Philly’s loaded rotation will put him in position for an ace-level contract somewhere.
C.J. Wilson, SP, Texas
Wilson was one of last year’s most interesting fantasy stories. He made the conversion from a setup reliever to a pretty good starter, going 15-8 with a 3.35 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. Wilson’s walk rate suggests some regression in the fantasy categories, but he strikes out enough batters and induces enough ground balls to have another solid campaign. Even a 4.00 southpaw can make a lot of money if he throws 200 innings.
Closers
We won’t elaborate on the closers separately here, since so many of them work on one-year deals, or at least short-term contracts. Here are some of the best relievers for the upcoming free-agent pool:
Heath Bell, San Diego; Jonathan Broxton, Los Angeles Dodgers; Matt Capps, Minnesota; Francisco Cordero, Cincinnati; Ryan Franklin, St. Louis; Brad Lidge, Philadelphia; Ryan Madson, Philadelphia; Joe Nathan, Minnesota; Jonathan Papelbon, Boston; Francisco Rodriguez, New York Mets; Jose Valverde, Detroit
