The Brewers made a handful of big moves Wednesday morning, optioning shortstop J.J. Hardy to Triple-A Nashville, designating underachieving utilityman Bill Hall for assignment and firing pitching coach Bill Castro. Those three moves are much more impactful on the actual big league club than they are on fantasy owners, with the exception of Hardy's demotion, which occurred during a four-game stretch where he went 4-for-13 (.308) at the plate.
Top prospect Alcides Escobar was called up to take Hardy's place in the lineup, though he didn't get the start on Wednesday night. Escobar barely made it to the clubhouse at Miller Park in time for the game against San Diego, but he's now in position to get a significant run as the everyday shortstop for the Brewers down the stretch. There are no questions about his glove, which projects to eventually put him in the mix for Gold Gloves, so there's no downgrade defensively in Milwaukee with the switch.
On the offensive side, Escobar and Hardy are as different as two right-handed hitters can be. Hardy averaged 25 homers over the last two seasons for the Brewers, while Escobar's hit 19 in 2,882 career minor league at-bats. In just under five seasons as the starting shortstop in Milwaukee, Hardy's 5-for-11 (45.5 percent success rate) in stolen base attempts. In 2009 alone, Escobar is 42-of-52 (80.8 percent) on the basepaths at Triple-A.
After a career best .283/.343/.478 line last season, Hardy's been mired in a funk all year with a .229/.300/.367 line in 371 at-bats. Instead of spending his 27th birthday living the high life in Milwaukee next week, he'll likely be in Nashville manning the heart of the order against the Sacramento RiverCats. Just two years ago, he was a National League All-Star and a fantasy hero to boot, swatting 26 homers and driving in 80 runs while staying healthy over the course of an entire season for the first time in his big league career. The Brewers have toyed with the idea of giving him a new position (third base?), something he's apparently been opposed to thus far. Rumors around and after the trade deadline have indicated that he'll be traded away this winter - if not sooner - leaving Escobar the starting job at shortstop for the next half decade if he's good enough to lock it down as expected.
So, what's changed for Hardy at the plate? How does a player go from .280 and 25 homers to .229 with two-thirds the power in a matter of months?
Looking at his splits, the glaring difference is how Hardy's hit against left-handed pitching this season. Entering 2009, he was a career .299 hitter against southpaws, but he's hit just .171 against them in 76 at-bats this season. Lefties were also where he did a lot of damage with the long ball, hitting a home run once in every 16.6 at-bats against them prior to this season compared to just one in all of '09. Ultimately, it looks like a case of bad luck, as his plate discipline is still in line with his long-term numbers (16:18 BB:K in 2009, 69:72 career).
FanGraphs points out that his strikeouts are up for the second straight season, but that his walks have also increased. There's been a slight dip in his line drive rate in each of the last two seasons, but not nearly enough to completely account for such a rapid regression.
Overall, Hardy's a below-average runner, which will never help his average on balls in play since he's not going to leg out any infield hits. Just as his .306 mark last season was a tad high - and a contributing factor in his .283 average - .258 this season is a bit low - at least partially to blame for his lackluster .229. The truth is he's more of a .260-.265 hitter than either of the above, which combined with an expected recovery against lefties - 76 at-bats is a tiny sample size - suggests there's still plenty left in the tank for him long term. It's increasingly unlikely he'll be a Brewer in 2010, but his above-average defense and good power for his position should create a decent trade market for him this winter.
In the best-case scenario for the Brewers, he starts putting things back together at Triple-A before rejoining the big club in September and finishing with a strong final month of the season while temporarily bumping Escobar back to the bench. As far as his fantasy value goes, he'll likely come cheap in drafts next spring, and given the volatile market for middle infielders each year, it wouldn't be all that surprising to see him bounce back near the top-10 because of his power at age 27.
The Great Jay Giveaway
Earlier in the week, the White Sox were awarded Alex Rios on waivers as the Blue Jays decided they'd rather give him away for nothing than keep him or end up eating part of the remaining money on his contract in a trade. Still owed $58.7 million over the next five seasons, Rios has hit .262/.315/.423 with 14 homers and 62 RBI in 436 at-bats. He's also been very successful on the basepaths, stealing 19 bases in 22 attempts.
His overall numbers have fallen short of expectations, particular in the average and on-base percentage department. That said, a big part of Rios' decline has been a reduced BABIP (.293), which is significantly lower than his .333 career average in that department. Of the balls he's putting in play, he's seen a slight drop in line drive rate (from 20.8 percent last season to 18.2), but he's similar to Hardy in that it's really not enough to fully account for his lower level of production.
Ultimately, the Blue Jays needed to find some financial relief somewhere because there have been no signs of Vernon Wells' contract coming off the books any time soon. The free-agent market last winter showed there's plenty of veteran value that can still be had (Bobby Abreu, one-year at $5 million), making it possible to replace Rios' production at a significantly lesser commitment in terms of both years and dollars.
Meanwhile, the White Sox get a little bit younger (Rios is 28), and now they'll be able to let at least one of Jim Thome or Jermaine Dye depart as free agents this winter. Defensively, Rios is capable of playing center field, so he could fill a long-term need there and finally put an end to the revolving door status of that spot for manager Ozzie Guillen. With a normalized BABIP, Rios should be able to return to something closer to .280/.335/.470, which with his combination of power - U.S. Cellular Field should help - and speed gives the White Sox another weapon for the heart of their order to potentially protect Carlos Quentin.
It's difficult to think of other players who could be given away in a similar fashion while providing such equal value to both sides of the "deal" in the process.
Article first appeared 8/13/09
